FINAL: The Rumor Mill Mock Draft - 2023
Aggregating rumors from top insiders, analysts, and beat writers on how the first round will shake out
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
What is The Rumor Mill Mock Draft?
The Rumor Mill Mock Draft is a 1st round NFL mock draft I’ve put together each year since 2019. I assemble the draft using rumors I have aggregated in the lead-up to the draft from scouts, media insiders, beat writers, analysts, etc.
Why do I spend so much time doing this every year?
Because people want to know who their team is drafting. I thought it would make sense to funnel this desire into something good, so I kindly suggest that people who enjoy the content donate whatever they can to the National Down Syndrome Society or a charitable organization of their choice. I put a lot of hours into this project every year and I can’t think of a better reward. Note: Donations are not required for the consumption of the content. Just very appreciated!
I’m one of those ^^^ people who wants to know who their team is drafting. And what better way to do that than to obsessively gather every morsel of information on the topic?
Is The Rumor Mill Mock Draft even accurate?
Yes!
Based on The Huddle Report’s scoring system, the 2021 Rumor Mill Mock would have scored a 46, which would have been good for 17th place in the competition (out of 133 submissions).
I’ve also learned from my mistakes after a lackluster 2022, when I decided to tinker with my draft in a last minute move that took me from what would have been 5th place to … well … not a good result.
I have worked twice as hard this year to collect even more information, and am hoping 2023 is my most accurate year yet.
How do I go from a hodgepodge of rumors to an actual mock draft?
Step one is to make sure the source of the rumor is reliable. I will not record a “draft rumor” unless it comes from an active scout, draft analyst, NFL insider, college or NFL coach or assistant coach, or beat writer.
Step two is to be able to differentiate conjecture and analysis from real, actionable information. The hierarchy of information when making a pick for the Rumor Mill Mock is as follows:
Real, sourced information (ie. NFL GMs, NFL scouts, Coaches)
Analysis from a legitimate NFL source based on team fits, top 30 visits, etc.
My own effort to fill in the blanks based on the above information, team visits, team draft history, team needs and fit, positional value, etc.
And yes, I cite sources for all rumors.
The Rumor Mill has spoken
None of the picks below are simply opinion-based. This is not a “what I would do mock draft.”
There’s a method to the madness, as you will soon find.
Presenting all the info
For each team, I’ll weave through what the rumors have said in the lead-up to the draft before eventually zeroing in on the player I believe the team will select.
Obviously, I’d love to get as many picks right as possible, but I think The Rumor Mill Mock draft offers something that’s not found in most mocks: a chronological presentation and analysis of all of the rumors I’ve found for each team drafting in the first round.
Whether the mock zeroes in on the exact player or not, it is sure to provide insight into how each team has operated throughout the offseason, and how draft media has interpreted its actions and needs.
THE FINAL RUMOR MILL MOCK DRAFT: 2023
Picks 1-31. No trades. Here we go!
The Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Evidence:
No write-up necessary on this one. If Young doesn’t turn out to be the pick, then everyone in the industry is wrong, and everyone owes Reddit user SaleAgreeable2834 an apology.
Bryce Young will be the #1 pick.
The Pick: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Evidence:
This has been going back and forth for a while now. Initially, this had been slotted as the landing spot for whichever of the top two QBs didn’t land with Carolina.
As recently as 4/12, Lance Zierlein said he felt there was a 60-65% chance the Texans would take Stroud.
But Zierlein himself cooled on the idea of Houston taking a QB, suggesting instead that Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans were zeroing in on a defensive player. The question at that point became:
Does Houston go with the cleaner, more highly graded prospect in Will Anderson, or opt for the higher-ceiling option in Tyree Wilson. Odds have gradually shifted on this, with most insiders, including Albert Breer and Peter King, landing on Wilson in their final mocks.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans traded down, or stayed put and took Will Anderson for that matter. Many see this as the pivot-point for the entire draft.
I’ll go with the buzz, and the buzz leans Wilson.
The Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Evidence:
The Cardinals have been touted as the ultimate trade down team in this draft. But with buzz that some the draft’s QBs could slip further than expected, they may be hard pressed to find a trade partner willing to pay what they are asking.
I think it’s more likely they stay put. If they were to pick at three, the logical choice would seem to be Will Anderson, who is widely considered one of the drafts top prospects, and would fill a position of need. But as I’ve sifted through reports, I can’t find much compelling information other than “he’s the best player on the board.”
I have, on the other hand, read quite a few rumblings about Tackle Paris Johnson in this slot. Ryan McCrystal mocked Paris Johnson to the Cardinals, and Todd McShay has said he would not rule out a pick on the offensive line. Albert Breer also mentions that Paris Johnson is a player who could go higher than many expect, linking him to Arizona.
Lastly, Mike Garafolo mentioned that “Kyler Murray likes Paris Johnson a lot and has let that be known inside the #AZCardinals’ building. Johnson visited there recently.”
I don’t think Paris Johnson would be much of a reach at pick 3, and even if Arizona were to trade down three or four spots, say, with the Raiders, they could likely still secure him at 7.
The Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Evidence:
Indy has been linked to Stroud, Levis, and Richardson, and there have been compelling reasons for each of the connections.
I suspect there’s been quite a bit of healthy debate in the Colts’ building on which quarterback is most likely to put an end to the QB carousel the team has been living through for the past few years, and this pick could change the entire trajectory of the draft for QB-needy teams picking later.
Michael Lombardi predicts that Ballard’s order for the QBs is Levis, Stroud, Richardson.
In recent days, the buzz has solidified in that direction, with Levis’ odds to be the second QB selected surpassing the other two.
We will go with Levis here, but it could easily be Stroud, or even Richardson.
The Pick: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
The Evidence:
Jalen Carter has been the big name here, and it makes sense. Per Peter King, the Seahawks’ business model is built to handle a challenging prospect with Jalen Carter. It’s been reported by Albert Breer and others that Pete Carroll Loves Carter.
Others are not so sure. In fact, reporting on the Seahawks and Carter has been extremely contradictory, with some, like Todd McShay, saying the Seahawks would likely take a QB or one of the top two defensive ends over Carter.
Worthy of note is the fact that before publishing his final mock, Albert Breer had someone tell him to switch the Seahawks pick from Carter to Will Anderson.
I think if the draft falls this way, the Seahawks will happily take Will Anderson, who they likely don’t expect to drop past the Texans and Cardinals.
This is also a potential landing spot for a QB, as McShay mentions, but with Geno Smith’s new contract, I expect them to make a move that can immediately strengthen a roster that unexpectedly competed in 2022.
The Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Evidence:
Could this be a surprise QB spot? I don’t think so. I firmly believe that Detroit feels it can win with a loaded roster around Jared Goff. While I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions were to select C.J. Stroud, or even a QB later in the draft, I think they are more likely to land on a player who can help them win right now.
The one player I think the Lions could select who I have falling beyond them is Jalen Carter, who could also land in Seattle. They have been linked to Carter throughout the pre-draft process, and he would instantly make a massive difference at a position of need. Ultimately, I think Detroit will take a player with fewer question marks on the defensive side of the ball, and the best defensive players available at this point in the draft are the top two corners.
Per Albert Breer, teams believe Detroit will be in on Devon Witherspoon. Breer has mentioned this two weeks in a row in his rumor roundup, so he has my attention.
Jordan Reid believes Witherspoon is the perfect fit for the Lions, and Daniel Jeremiah has them taking Witherspoon in his final mock, writing:
“Witherspoon’s style of play fits beautifully with the culture Dan Campbell has built. He’s feisty and tough.”
Finally, Todd McShay writes that while the Lions would likely take Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson were they to fall to pick 6, he thinks they are more likely to take Witherspoon than Gonzalez if the two edge rushers don’t fall.
The Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Evidence:
If C.J. Stroud truly does fall, then all bets are off. The Raiders could easily opt to select him, and break most mock drafts in the process. But even if a player like Stroud were to slide a bit, I could see the Raiders opting to go in a different direction. Jimmy Garoppolo has shown that he can win games in the NFL, and Josh McDaniels can’t afford to drop games in a loaded AFC because of a rookie quarterback.
It’s also worth noting that the Raiders tried to move up to pick #1, which suggests Bryce Young was by far and away the top option on their board. If they loved C.J. Stroud, they would have been more aggressive in trying to trade up.
If it’s not a quarterback, consensus has the Raiders opting for a safe pick. Albert Breer has linked them to Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson here, but pick 7 feels a bit rich for Skoronski, and I Paris Johnson will likely be gone.
That has led most mock drafters to slot a corner in at this pick. If the Raiders had the chance to choose between Witherspoon and Gonzalez, I’m not sure who they would take. Breer does mention them as a fit for Witherspoon, but I believe Witherspoon will end up in Detroit.
Todd McShay has mentioned Christian Gonzalez as a fit, as has Matthew Freedman.
The Pick: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Evidence:
This is a tough one, because Atlanta is in position to take highly rated players at a number of positions.
They’ve been consistently linked to Bijan Robinson, and while I think they could trade down a bit and take him, I just don’t see them selecting a running back this high. Besides, their options at more valuable positions are simply too good.
Todd McShay and Benjamin Allbright have both mentioned that the Falcons have been active in scouting the cornerback position. I think this is the second most likely option. If Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez were to fall, I could see that being the pick, as they have been linked to both.
I also think the Falcons could be in on a QB like Stroud, were he to fall, but most analysts seem to think it’s unlikely they will select one.
Ultimately, the buzz on Nolan Smith has been too loud to ignore. Peter Schrager has stated that he believes Smith could go in the top 8. Josh Norris thinks the Falcons will draft Smith, and as of Tuesday before the draft, Cam Marino mentioned that he sees the Falcons ending up with Smith.
Would they take him at 8? I’m not sure. But it’s also been rumored that the Falcons would love to trade down. I could see Tennessee coming up for Stroud here, or the Eagles coming up for Jalen Carter. I don’t think anyone would bat an eye if Atlanta were to select Nolan Smith at pick 10 or 11.
The Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Evidence:
This one will be controversial, because many won’t expect Darnell Wright to go this high, but I think he could.
Many scouts see Paris Johnson landing with the bears, per Albert Breer, but I don’t expect Johnson to be available at this point. Skoronski has also come up from the likes of Todd McShay, but Jeremy Layton has suggested that the Bears don’t really view Skoronski as a tackle, and would likely not take a guard this high:
“I have heard that the Bears don’t view Skoronski as a tackle bc of his arm length and I would be surprised if they take him.”
Brad Spielberger echoed this sentiment on a recent podcast with Ben Standig.
The other realistic option here is Jalen Carter. Bryan Perez has stated that he does not believe Carter will get past the Bears. The Carter love makes sense. We shouldn’t forget that the Bears originally held the first overall pick, so I don’t see them leaving the first round without a truly elite prospect.
But I think they will land on a player who they can immediately plug into a position of need. Darnell Wright is the best pure right tackle prospect in the draft, and many expect him to go higher than originally thought.
Mark Carman writes:
“Carm latest draft info — Have heard Lukas Van Ness and Darnell Wright are among the names the #Bears are considering at No. 9….”
Jordan Reid and Clay Harbor echo the sentiment that they could see Darnell Wright landing with the Bears. It’s a natural fit, and while Chicago will have a lot of options, I think they will land on Wright.
It’s also worth mentioning that I think the Eagles could trade up to 8 to steal Carter from Chicago if he’s still on the board.
The Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Evidence:
Do I think Jalen Carter falls all the way to pick 10? No. Do I think Philly would trade up to say, pick 8, if he were to fall that far? Absolutely.
Benjamin Allbright mentions the Eagles selection at 10 as the floor for Carter, and per Albert Breer, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean being on the Eagles could help Jalen Carter adapt. The Eagles like to get their replacements in the trenches a year early, and Carter could be an preemptive selection for Fletcher Cox’s eventual retirement.
Matthew Freedman writes,
“It’s strongly rumored that the Eagles want DT Jalen Carter and are willing to trade up to get him.”
If Carter goes before the Eagles pick, Philadelphia has been heavily linked to Nolan Smith and Peter Skoronski, per Peter King. Albert Breer also thinks Gonzalez could be the pick here if he’s still available. I just don’t think he will be.
Similar to the Ravens, the Eagles always seem to end up with no-brainer blue-chip players on draft day. I think this year will be no different.
The Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Evidence:
I’ll start by saying this:
I have no idea where Stroud will end up on draft day. Part of me doesn’t buy the whole S2 test debacle. I think Stroud is just too good of a prospect to slide very far on Thursday—but we’ve seen top prospects fall in the past. Coincidentally, Justin Fields fell to 11 in 2021.
My thought process was to analyze each of the QB needy teams within range of C.J. Stroud, and this is what I came up with:
Indianapolis could definitely take him at four, but I’m actually buying their love for Will Levis.
Detroit could realize they probably won’t be picking this high in the near future and take Stroud, but all indications have them locked in on a top defensive player. Besides, there are other ways for loaded teams to procure a quarterback that can take them over the hump. Just look at the Jets this year with Aaron Rodgers, or the Rams, who identified Detroit’s Matthew Stafford as the final piece to their Super Bowl puzzle.
There hasn’t been much buzz connecting Seattle to Stroud.
The Raiders seem locked in on a corner or an offensive lineman.
That really leaves the Titans, who could opt to move up to secure a slipping Stroud’s services.
Matthew Freedman, in his final mock, mentions that Ohio State coach Ryan Day is friends with Mike Vrabel, which could mean Vrabel has all the info he needs on Stroud if he falls.
Peter King has the Titans trading up to 3 for Stroud.
Todd McShay says the Titans have interest in Stroud, and they have been trying to move up.
And here’s Jordan Reid on Stroud:
"I think his slide could be similar to [Justin] Fields ' and he went at 11," one league executive shared with me last week. "There's no way [ Stroud ] gets past Tennessee at that spot. ... With [ Ryan ] Tannehill entering his last year of the deal, it makes sense."
If it’s not Stroud, it could be Richardson. Cam Marino writes:
Keep an eye on the Titans and Anthony Richardson. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them move up for him. Interest in Richardson has been obvious. He’s got fans across the league and that especially includes Titans GM Ran Carthon
Albert Breer also thinks Richardson could be an option here. It just feels like of the big four quarterbacks, Richardson has a chance to slip a bit further.
If the Titans opt against a QB, this could be a landing spot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Zay Flowers. They could also look to bolster the offensive line.
The Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Evidence:
If the Texans truly decide against taking a quarterback at two, and I believe Lance Zierlein that they prefer Tyree Wilson over all options not named Bryce Young, then it’s tough to imagine them taking one at 12. Why would they risk losing out on a quarterback they love?
If C.J. Stroud were to fall, I could see the Texans selecting him, as could Matthew Freedman, who gives Stroud to Houston in his final mock. But I’m not buying the Hendon Hooker buzz from Todd McShay, unless Houston were to trade down.
If Houston truly believes they are getting a blue chip player in Tyree Wilson, then I can see them replicating that line of thinking at pick 12, and Bijan Robinson, regardless of the fact that he plays a devalued position, is one of the few blue-chip prospects in this class.
The Underdog Fantasy team has linked the Texans to Bijan, and Evan Silva has stated that he believes Bijan is a lock for the top 12, with Houston being his floor.
Robinson could wind up in Atlanta, with a slight trade back, or he could slide a bit further, but I’m betting the Texans and Nick Caserio will see him as too good of a prospect to pass up.
The Pick: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
The Evidence:
When we think about what the Packers might do at 13, we have to look at Brian Gutekunst’s history in the first round. That history shows that most first round picks have addressed the defensive side of the ball, and the Packers D was not exactly a dominant unit last year.
I’m also not buying the “Take a pass-catcher in round one to spite Aaron Rodgers buzz.” The Packers drafted two receivers they love after round one in 2022 in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. It’s a deep class at tight end, and there’s not much consensus on the top receivers, so they could look to day two for a pass-catcher.
On draft day eve, there’s been some steam on the Packers trading down and selecting Dalton Kincaid, but as we know, lots of teams want to trade down, and it’s hard to find a trade partner for all of them.
I’ve also heard a lot of offensive line steam. Per Zach Kruse, Darnell Washington is a perfect fit for the Packers. Peter Bukowski has also mentioned they could have interest in Paris Johnson, but he is long gone in this mock.
What if the Packers insisted on jumping the Patriots because they want first dibs on a pass rusher they covet? Justis Mosqueda, who has had some success predicting Packers picks in the past, writes,
If you asked me for three names at 13 for the Packers, my list is Darnell Wright, Lukas Van Ness and Myles Murphy
Aaron Nagler agrees that Van Ness would be a great fit. Van Ness has also been touted as a good fit for the Patriots, which further suggests this could have been a move to snipe the talented edge rusher before New England has a chance to select him.
The Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Evidence:
Your guess is as good as mine. We’re talking about the Cole Strange team here.
In all seriousness, if Skoronski were to fall this far, I think Bill Belichick would run in the card. But that’s a big if:
On one hand, teams in the top 10 have been linked to Skoronski, who some have anointed as the future Zack Martin. The Raiders at 7, Falcons at 8, Bears at 9 and Eagles at 10 could all be options. But I’m banking on the report that most teams see Skoronski as a guard, which could cause him to slide a bit.
That’s exactly what the Underdog Fantasy team noted in their pre-draft podcast, going so far as to link him to the Jets. Peter King also sees Skoronski landing here.
A team that may actually see Skoronski as a tackle, on the other hand? The Pats!
After all, this same Patriots regime drafted Isaiah Wynn to be a tackle in 2018, despite the fact that a large portion of the league saw him as a Guard. Skoronski could be the perfect Riley Reiff replacement, and if the tackle experiment fails, Belichick has shown that he values elite guard play.
If Skoronski is gone, look for the Patriots to select a player like Darnell Wright or Broderick Jones, both of whom have been linked to the team.
Alex Barth writes:
“I know a lot of people have been mocking Darnell Wright to the Patriots with a trade back in the first round. Well, so is the @FelgerAndMazz Big Board”
What if the Patriots don’t take an offensive linemen?
Well they have plenty of needs, from receiver, to edge rusher, to corner. I just haven’t hear much steam about receivers landing here, and while Albert Breer has mentioned they would probably take Gonzalez or Witherspoon were they to fall this far, I think they will be gone in the top 10.
That leaves the defensive line, where Joe McNeely brings up a good point on how well Myles Murphy would fit:
“I like Myles Murphy's game a lot. His measurables (6'5" 268 lbs.) are prototypically what the #Patriots look for in an Edge. An impressive 9.71 RAS score confirms his athletic profile as a guy who can average 8-10 sacks a year while having the anchor to set a great edge.”
The Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Evidence:
This receiver class is an enigma. The consensus seems to be that it’s full of outliers, and the top receiver this year would be perhaps the third or fourth option in an average draft year.
That has lead to a lot of inconsistency when it comes to rankings, with some analysts and scouts claiming Jaxon Smith-Njigba is by far and away the best prospect, and some rallying behind the likes of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and even Quentin Johnston.
What I do know is that odds are the first receiver will come off the board around this pick, with teams like Tennessee at 11, Houston at 12, Green Bay at 13, and New England at 14 all in need of one.
To be honest, I think it’s equally likely that the Jets take an Offensive lineman with this selection. They have been linked to Broderick Jones by Jeremy Fowler and Todd McShat, and Darnell Wright by Daniel Jeremiah.
But I see the run on offensive line happening before the run on receivers, which would potentially leave the Jets with a choice: Take the top receiver on or board, or settle for a falling offensive lineman?
I was on the fence until Daniel Jeremiah mentioned that the Jets have been doing a ton of work on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and could take him at 15. And why not? They had success dipping into the Ohio State receiver well last year with Garrett Wilson, and they have a chance to give Aaron Rodgers something Green Bay never did: A first round receiver.
The Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Evidence:
This was one of the most difficult picks to mock. Not because there’s no steam, but because the player the Commanders end up with will depend a great deal on how the offensive linemen fall in the picks preceding their selection.
The Commanders have been mentioned as a landing spot for Bijan Robinson, since they don’t have an analytics-heavy front office, but the connections feel a bit forced and I think he will go sooner.
A great deal of the buzz has been around defensive backs, where Peter King has given them Brian Branch in a mock, and Ben Standig has confirmed their interest in Emmanuel Forbes. It just feels a bit early for Branch and Forbes here, so I couldn’t pull the trigger. It feels like the right range for a player like Deonte Banks, but there just hasn’t been much buzz connecting him with the Commanders.
Benjamin Allbright has suggested offensive line could be the direction the Commanders choose to go, and Ben Standig has echoed that sentiment, giving them Darnell Wright in his final draft.
But Standig, who is very plugged into the Commanders organization, also mentions Broderick Jones as a possibility, and for our purposes, he is available.
The Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Evidence:
Everyone is saying the Steelers need a tackle, but have you seen the teams picking before them? It’s a veritable gauntlet of o-line needy teams. In fact, I don’t even have them all taking offensive linemen, and there’s still nothing left for the poor Steelers.
If the Steelers are dead-set on taking an offensive linemen, I see them trading up (I think the target in that case would be Darnell Wright), or trading down (perhaps to grab someone like Anton Harrison). But if they stay put, they will be forced to pivot:
Early on in the process, there was a lot of steam on Mike Tomlin loving Jalen Carter. I just don’t see it happening, as it would require a move too far up the board, and it may be tough to stomach trading up for a player with Carter’s character concerns.
A lot of the steam has been about defensive backs. Evan Silva has mentioned Brian Branch as a fit here, but I think a more compelling fit is Deonte Banks, who has surged up draft boards as of late.
Albert Breer mentions that Dino Tomlin, Mike Tomlin’s son, helped recruit Deonte Banks at Maryland, so for better or for worse, Pittsburgh has the book on him.
The Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
The Evidence:
There’s been a lot of Bijan and Kancey buzz here. I think it’s too early for Kancey, who could end up finding a home late in round one or slipping out altogether, and too late for Bijan, who I think is too talented to slide this far.
Jeff Risdon believes Van Ness would be a fit here, but he also mentions that the Lions are rate O’Cyrus Torrence “very high.”
Risdon adds:
“I strongly suspect Torrence is one of the top contenders to be the Lions' pick at 18. Perfect scheme fit for Hank Fraley's line”
Scott Smith has also mentioned that the Lions have done a lot of work on interior linemen. This feels like Torrence’s range.
The Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Evidence:
For some reason, this was the hardest pick to decide on. Maybe it’s because the players the Bucs have been linked too are either expected to go considerably higher or considerably lower on draft day.
It may also be because there hasn’t been as strong of buzz on the Buccaneers’ draft plans in the first round. The team is full of aging veterans with big cap hits, so they could really use help just about everywhere.
Schrager and Evan Silva have Deonte Banks landing here. I think that’s a decent guess.
This has also been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Bijan Robinson, but I have him coming off the board much sooner.
I have them taking a Michael Mayer because it would fill a need, but also because this is the exact range where I see Mayer coming off the board. He’s simply too talented to last late into the twenties, and I would not be surprised if the Bucs snatched him up.
The Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Evidence:
I have no idea where Anthony Richardson ends up, but my rationale is as follows:
The Seahawks have legitimately been linked to Richardson. Just look at what Todd McShay has to say: “I have a strong sense Seattle won’t leave Round 1 without a quarterback. The more I talk to execs, scouts, coaches and agents, the more I think the Seahawks could be targeting Stroud or even Florida’s Anthony Richardson at this spot”
Geno Smith’s deal is not exactly impossible to get out of in the near future. If the Seahawks believe in Richardson, he can be their guy after sitting behind Geno for a year.
I’ll admit I’m playing the odds a bit here, but Seattle has two picks, both in potential range to select Richardson, which doubles the probability that he will land with them on draft day.
Who else could they take if not Richardson?
Matt Miller mentioned this could be the floor for Myles Murphy, Others, like Brett Kollman and Peter King have linked Seattle to Zay Flowers.
But I really think they could be the team that takes a shot on Richardson. Daniel Jeremiah, in his final mock, writes:
“I think Richardson could be in play at No. 5 for Seattle. He’d be a no-brainer pick for the Seahawks if he’s still available at No. 20.”
The Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Evidence:
The Chargers have been consistently linked to Jordan Addison for months. In fact, I almost gave them Kincaid or Mayer because it seemed too on the nose to give them Addison.
To be fair, they have been linked to other players. They’ve been mentioned as a potential floor for Bijan Robinson, with Ekeler having requested a trade. Albert Breer has mentioned that they like Zay Flowers, but has them taking Kincaid in his final Mock. And Peter Schrager sent Michael Mayer to the Chargers in his first mock.
But there’s an obvious connection here: Chargers WR coach Chris Beatty happens to be the coach who recruit Addison, first to Maryland, and then to Pitt.
Does that make this pick a lock? Not necessarily. But it certainly cannot be ignored.
The Pick: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The Evidence:
The Ravens’ pick is intriguing. At first I was convinced they would take a receiver as a way to help butter up Lamar Jackson. I had Zay Flowers here until late in the process, when it was reported that Baltimore is in trade talks with Arizona for DeAndre Hopkins.
If that trade pans out, and it’s expected to, I think receiver ceases to be a round one consideration—especially after the OBJ signing.
So where does that leave us? Emmanuel Forbes has come up a ton in connection to Baltimore. Ben Standig, who is a consistently accurate mock-drafter mentions Forbes as a fit here.
And Spencer Schultz writes,
“My best guess is Addison. The pool they pick from IMO is Addison, Johnston, Forbes, Banks, Porter Jr., Wright, Van Ness.”
And Sarah Ellison, similarly, writes,
“If the Ravens don’t find a trade partner, and must pick at No. 22, give me your three most likely players that they’d be choosing from. I’ll start: • WR Zay Flowers • CB Deonte Banks • CB Emmanuel Forbes”
Earlier in the draft process, Forbes was not expected to be a first rounder due to his size, but it appears he has risen up draft boards.
The Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Evidence:
I had Anthony Richardson here until the very last minute and then decided it was too much of a homer move.
While there has been a lot of steam on the Vikings trading up for Richardson, particularly from Vikings beat writers Ben Goesseling and Chad Graff, as well as steam on the Vikings landing Richardson at 23 (Peter King’s final mock), it just feels like maybe the third or fourth most likely option for the Vikings—not the first.
I also don’t think they take Hendon Hooker here, and for what it’s worth, I don’t have Hooker being taken in the first round of this mock.
Darren Wolfson, who is extremely plugged in, has been tracking the Vikings’ interest in receivers and corners in the lead-up to the draft. He’s claimed that the Vikings have done a lot of wok on Deonte Banks. I just don’t think Banks will be on the board when the Vikings pick.
Wolfson has also reported that the Vikings had a great meeting with Jordan Addison, who “would love to be a Viking,” but I have Addison going to the Chargers at 21.
I slotted Flowers here for a couple reasons. The first is what I remember of Kevin O’Connell’s description of the ideal receiver to complement Justin Jefferson when interviewed at the Owners’ meetings (It sounded like he was describing Zay Flowers).
The second is Albert Breer’s rumor round-up late on draft day eve, linking Flowers to the Vikings.
This pick could easily be Banks, Porter, Addison, or Richardson, but if this is the board, I think Flowers will be highest on it.
The Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Evidence:
This pick was such a pain to mock. As we get later in the draft, so many of these picks will be conditioned by what happens above. Combine that with the fact that the Jaguars have sneakily built a roster that lacks many truly pressing needs, and you have a complete lack of confidence.
Peter King has mocked Lukas Van Ness here, mentioning Michael Mayer as a strong consideration as well. Tony Pauline mentions Lukas Van Ness, Devon Weatherspoon and Deonte Banks here. Others have mentioned Darnell Wright. All five of those guys are expected to be gone at this point.
I strongly considered Michael Mayer in this spot, as there is quite a bit of buzz on him, but insiders seemed convinced that Mayer is destined to be picked in the mid-to-late teens, and I don’t see the Jags as a candidate for Dalton Kincaid.
This tweet from Eugene Frenette helped me narrow things down a bit:
“Two of the most intriguing prospects at No. 24 for #Jaguars if they're available would be S Brian Branch and TE Michael Mayer. There are other solid picks there, too, and someone unexpected may fall there, but that pair would be fascinating.”.
The Jaguars could use a bit of secondary help, and Brian Branch’s name has been attached to them throughout the draft process.
Confidence level? Low. But it’s as good as we can do at this point.
The Pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Evidence:
I’m 50-50 on Quentin Johnston going in the first round. Some, like Evan Silva, think he could be the first receiver drafted. Others think he will fall out.
I’m banking on his size and athletic profile to make him an attractive option for the Giants, who need some size at receiver.
Per Benjamin Allbright, the Giants are “Eyeing Corners and Receivers.” Matt Miller echoed this sentiment, mocking Emmanuel Forbes here (who I also strongly considered).
I could definitely see Forbes being the pick here if he’s available, but I think the likelihood of Johnston lasting this late into round one is higher.
The Pick: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
The Evidence:
Michael Mayer is off the board, and he’s been mocked to the Cowboys a billion times over the past month. Per Benjamin Allbright, Mayer would be an option if still on the board.
But in the days leading to the draft, I’ve decided to follow some steam in a different direction:
Marcus Mosher picked Will McDonald in ESPN’s beat writer mock draft. That wouldn’t mean much if McDonald’s name hadn’t been popping up in association with Dallas, but there has been more and more buzz in the two days leading up to the draft.
Kevin Gray tweeted:
If the Cowboys go offense in the NFL Draft it feels like it'll be Michael Mayer if he's there and if they go defense it feels like its gonna be Will McDonald from Iowa State
It’s also worth mentioning that Dan Quinn rand drills at McDonald’s pro day.
The Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Evidence:
Not much evidence here, to be honest, apart from the fact that the Bills’ Super Bowl window can only stay open if they keep infusing the team with young talent on rookie deals. That could point to them taking just about any player, but I think if Joey Porter Jr. were to still be on the board this late, they would run the card in.
I also don’t see Porter Jr., who has slipped a bit in the past week or so, falling all the way out of round one—so I had to get him in somewhere.
The Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
The Evidence:
This could be offensive line, tight end, or an offensive weapon like Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bengals invested a ton into their offensive line in 2022, and the 2023 draft was most talent-heavy on OL in the teens, so the Bengals draft too late.
Calijah Kancey is an intriguing prospect because of both his testing and his production. Were it not for his size, he would easily be a top 15 pick. Unfortunately, because of his size, I could see him slipping out of round one.
But there has just been too much steam on Kancey to the Bengals as of late. Joe Goodberry, who is famously good at predicting Cincinnati’s draft picks, has them taking Kancey, as does Albert Breer, in his final mock.
The Pick: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Evidence:
I don’t think Myles Murphy will fall this far, but, a) you never know, and b) the Saints love trading up to get their guy. And Murphy could definitely be their guy:
Nick Underhill predicts that the Saints will take an edge rusher. John Sigler points out a USA Today mock draft that has Murphy falling to the saints, and Daniel Jeremiah slots Murphy in at 29 in his final mock.
A final note: Murphy did visit the Saints in the lead-up to the draft.
The Pick: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Evidence:
Trenches at 10. Trenches at 30. It’s what Howie Roseman does, and under his watch, the Eagles have been to two Super Bowls.
The Eagles love loading up a year before a need rears its head, and in this case, would grab a somewhat raw player with high potential to mold into the replacement for franchise cornerstone Lane Johnson.
Harrison visited the Eagles during the pre-draft process, and this tweet from Gabriella DiGiovanni really makes you think:
“Oklahoma T Anton Harrison joins the legacy of Sooner OL heading to the NFL like #Eagles RT Lane Johnson. Harrison said he looks up to Johnson + appreciates that he always returned to Norman, showing he cares about the players who followed him.”
The Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The Evidence:
Last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, they turned around and made the “luxury pick” of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. CEH has not worked out in Kansas City, but that certainly shouldn’t preclude the Chiefs from selecting another dynamic weapon.
Plus, the same people who decided to take a running back in the first last time are making KC’s selections in the 2023 draft.
Do I think this winds up as the pick? Probably not. The Chiefs have been linked to receivers like Zay Flowers and Jalin Hyatt. Per Albert Breer, they’ve made calls about moving up.
Truth is, this late in a first round mock, it’s about getting all the players in who I believe will go in the first round, and I think Gibbs is a lock.