FINAL: The Rumor Mill Mock Draft - 2024
Aggregating rumors from top insiders, analysts, and beat writers on how the first round will shake out
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
What is The Rumor Mill Mock Draft?
The Rumor Mill Mock Draft is a 1st round NFL mock draft I’ve put together each year since 2019. I assemble the draft using rumors I have aggregated in the lead-up to the draft from scouts, media insiders, beat writers, analysts, etc.
Why do I spend so much time doing this every year?
Because people want to know who their team is drafting. I thought it would make sense to funnel this desire into something good, so I kindly suggest that people who enjoy the content donate whatever they can to the National Down Syndrome Society or a charitable organization of their choice. I put a lot of hours into this project every year and I can’t think of a better reward. Note: Donations are not required for the consumption of the content. Just very appreciated!
I’m one of those ^^^ people who wants to know who their team is drafting. And what better way to do that than to obsessively gather every morsel of information on the topic?
How do I go from a hodgepodge of rumors to an actual mock draft?
Step one is to make sure the source of the rumor is reliable. I will not record a “draft rumor” unless it comes from an active scout, draft analyst, NFL insider, college or NFL coach or assistant coach, or beat writer.
Step two is to be able to differentiate conjecture and analysis from real, actionable information. The hierarchy of information when making a pick for the Rumor Mill Mock is as follows:
Real, sourced information (ie. NFL GMs, NFL scouts, Coaches)
Analysis from a legitimate NFL source based on team fits, top 30 visits, etc.
My own effort to fill in the blanks based on the above information, team visits, team draft history, team needs and fit, positional value, etc.
The Rumor Mill has spoken
None of the picks below are simply opinion-based. This is not a “what I would do mock draft.”
Whether the mock zeroes in on the exact player or not, it is sure to provide insight into how each team has operated throughout the offseason, and how draft media has interpreted its actions and needs.
THE FINAL RUMOR MILL MOCK DRAFT: 2024
Picks 1-32. No trades. Here we go!
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
No analysis necessary. Caleb has been a Bear for months.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
This has a chance to be a pivot point in a lot of mocks. Some will choose to mock Maye here, and that could very well be the selection.
The most worrisome aspect of mocking Daniels to the Commanders is that they have reportedly been very tight-lipped throughout the process. Normally, the second pick is a formality by draft day eve, but that’s not the case this year.
Even so, an overwhelming amount of insiders have claimed that they expect Daniels to be the pick, and I don’t feel confident going against consensus on this one.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
As a Vikings fan, it pains me to make this selection. Maye would be a dream fit for the Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and it has been reported that he is at the top of the Vikings’ board.
To be honest, I’ve flip-flopped this a few times. I do still think there’s a chance the Vikings pull it off (I know they will try), but here’s my rationale for why they will ultimately fail.
Sure, the Patriots could get a historic haul in a trade down with Minnesota, but they also have a crack at selecting an incredible prospect, at a draft position they don’t plan to have again. The “build your offense first and then drop a rookie QB into it” take is valid, but sometimes you just have to pull the trigger on the most important position in sports.
There have been late rumblings that New England likes J.J. McCarthy. The real question becomes, what is their gap in evaluation between Maye and J.J.? If it’s small, I could see a trade down. But who would be their preferred trade partner? A trade with Minnesota secures New England more draft capital, but they will then likely be required to trade back into the top 5 to secure McCarthy. This would likely cost them the difference between the draft capital they got from Minnesota and the capital they would have gotten from the Giants, who have also been rumored as a Maye team.
Ultimately, I would rank New England’s three most likely scenarios as follows:
Stand pat and take Maye
Trade down to 6 with the Giants and take McCarthy
Trade down with the Vikings and either trade back up for McCarthy or hope he falls to 11
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals have long been rumored as a trade down team, but they have a shot here to select the player many consider to be the best prospect in the entire draft, at a position of extreme need.
I think the Ossenfort wheeling and dealing in the ‘23 draft has people thinking he’s going to do the same thing this year.
I just don’t see them passing on MHJ.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
This is such a Harbaugh pick. Yes, the Chargers have a massive need at wide receiver, but Harbaugh likes to build from the trenches, and the Chargers need a better option at right tackle than Trey Pipkins.
If I were projecting trades in this mock, I would likely choose this as the spot the Vikings trade up to select J.J. McCarthy. In that case, the Chargers would be getting Latham at 11 which is much more consistent with his projected draft range.
Do they take Latham at 5 if they don’t trade down? I think that’s possible, too, although in that scenario, this pick could easily be Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Either way, I give the edge to Latham.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
But Nabers is still on the board! Doesn’t matter. More insiders have linked Odunze to the Giants. He’s a better fit in the Offense, and he’s as clean as they come as a prospect. Taking him at 6 is in no way, shape, or form a reach.
I could also see the Giants being tempted by Joe Alt, but signs point to this pick being a receiver.
7. Tennessee Titans, Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
This pick has been the chalkiest of chalk for over a month. It’s a position of need, and he’s the best tackle on the board, so it just makes sense.
The one scenario that could throw a wrench in things is if the Titans were to trade down, but ultimately, I think they stay put and make the Notre Dame tackle a cornerstone of Will Levis’ offense.
8. Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Falcons need help on defense, and Dallas Turner is the best defensive player on the board. I can also see Byron Murphy II landing here, as he has been a late riser, but this pick has been chalk for a few weeks, so I am wary to deviate from consensus.
I do think Atlanta will be looking to trade down, and I think this could be a spot the Vikings, Broncos, or Raiders trade up to secure J.J. McCarthy. It could also be a spot for a receiver-needy team picking in the teens to come up for Nabers.
But even if they were to trade down a few spots, I could still see Turner being on the board.
9. Chicago Bears: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
As I wrote above, Byron Murphy II has been a late riser in the draft process, particularly in the past few days, with many insiders linking him to the Bears. The Bears need help on defense, and a disruptive 3-tech like Murphy would be a perfect fit.
For the “why are they passing on Nabers” crowd:
I don’t think the Bears would pass on Nabers or Odunze if they were to fall this far, and while I still have Nabers on the board at this point, I think a team will trade up for him before he falls this far.
I also think the Bears are in a good spot at receiver with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and while Allen’s deal is short, they need more help right now on defense.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
This is the pick I’m most torn on right now. Brock Bowers to the Jets is so chalk, but it also feels like it relies on a ton of assumptions that I’m not sure are super valid (some centered around Aaron Rodgers’ desires for the team).
For what it’s worth, Rodgers hasn’t been known for having incredibly productive tight ends over the years, whether that’s a factor of his own preferences on how he sees the offense, or the nature of the talent he had at his disposal in his years in Green Bay, we will have to see.
Ultimately, I feel this pick is a tossup between Bowers and one of the top offensive tackles left on the board. If it turns out to be Fuaga or Fashanu, I’ll be kicking myself on draft day, but I have to go with the insiders on this one.
11. Minnesota Vikings, J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
If you haven’t yet, read the Patriots blurb before reading this one.
While I think the Vikings will try their hardest to come up for Drake Maye, I think they will be halted by the Patriots’ desire to select Maye, and not the fact that their offer wasn’t enough of a “haul.”
Ultimately, I have them settling for their consolation prize. Minnesota is the best possible landing spot for McCarthy, and if he has any chance of finding success at the NFL level, it will be under Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage.
I don’t think it’s very likely McCarthy falls to 11. I could see the Vikings trading somewhere in the 5-8 range for him, but in this draft, we’ll have them sticking and picking.
One thing is for certain: The Vikings are leaving this first round with a quarterback.
12. Denver Broncos, Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Broncos could be a J.J. McCarthy team. I just don’t see them outbidding the Vikings in a potential trade up. They have also been linked to Bo Nix, but I think this is simply too early for him. In fact, I could see them landing him in round 2.
So what’s left? I think Denver will strongly consider trading down and selecting the best player on the board. In this case, whether they stay at 12 or trade down into the late teens, I could see Verse being a reasonable option for a defensive unit that needs a major overhaul.
13. Las Vegas Raiders, Michael Penix, QB, Washington
This feels early for Penix, but when all is said and done, I can see him going in the first half of round one, with reported interest from the Patriots (in a trade down), Vikings, and other QB needy teams.
The Raiders need a quarterback, and sitting at 13, their ultimate prize, Jayden Daniels, is out of reach. It’s been reported that they like Penix. Would they trade down and risk losing out? I’m not so sure.
14. New Orleans Saints, Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Saints need a tackle as much or more than any team needs any position in this draft. Frankly, a pick at any other position would shock me. They grab the top one remaining on the board at 14.
15. Indianapolis Colts, Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Before you yell at me for letting Nabers slide this far, let me clearly state:
There’s no chance Malik Nabers makes it to pick 15. He may be the second best prospect in the draft, and some teams have him ranked above MHJ.
The Colts, however, hit on a young QB last year in Anthony Richardson, and will be looking desperately to build a tailor-made offense around him. Nabers is such a perfect fit for Richardson’s style of play, and I could see Indy being aggressive in a trade up, were he to fall past the top 6, which, as I have outlined, is definitely possible.
Where do I think this selection is most likely to happen? When the Titans, at 7, and the Falcons, at 8, are on the clock.
16. Seattle Seahawks, Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
I’ve gone back and forth quite a bit on this one. I think Seattle wouldn’t mind taking a corner, and Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are both still on the board. I also think this could be a sneaky spot for Penix. The real outsider I think could land here is Cooper DeJean, who has been linked to the Seahawks, but 16 feels a bit early.
Instead, I have Seattle fortifying the offensive line. Many have made the connection between Fautanu and Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb, who coached him in college. That, combined with the positional need, may be enough to make this selection a strong possibility.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
While I could see this being a wide receiver spot, the value just doesn’t add up as much as it does here with the top corner in the draft falling.
It’s also fairly easy to argue that corner is the Jaguars’ top need. I think they would be thrilled to land Arnold in the late teens.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
A bit of a corner run here, as Mitchell slides to the Bengals, who need secondary help.
With Trey Hendrickson and Tee Higgins both formally requesting a trade on the eve of draft day, people will be scrambling to slot a wide receiver or an edge rusher into this spot. Similar to the Jaguars’ pick above, I think the top corners sliding down the board is too good of a value to pass up.
19. Los Angeles Rams, Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
This may be a bit of a shot in the dark, but Xavier Worthy’s name has been all over the place over last 48 hours. He’s been mocked by insiders as high as 15 to the Colts. While that feels a little rich, 19 feels just right.
I could see the Sean McVay loving Worthy, and Peter Schrager has told us to expect an offensive player if the Rams stick and pick.
With that says, a tackle also counts as an offensive player, and the Rams could be in play for one of the top tackles remaining. They also have plenty of needs on defense.
I’ll take a shot in the dark here and send them Worthy.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, C, Duke
It’s rare to be confident of a pick this late in the first round, but the Steelers have a tendency to tip their picks, and Barton has been the player most linked to them over the past month. Pittsburgh has a massive need at center, so it just makes too much sense.
I could also see a receiver landing here. Brian Thomas is still on the board, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happening, but I have to go chalk here.
21. Miami Dolphins: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Dolphins have a need at edge rusher and have been heavily linked to both Latu and Jared Verse. Verse is gone in this mock so Latu is the pick.
It will be interesting to see where Latu lands. If it weren’t for the medical retirement earlier in his career, he would likely be seen as the top defensive player in this class.
The Dolphins take a risk for a potential bargain here.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Eagles desperately need a corner, but Howie Roseman has never taken one in the first round, and I don’t expect him to start now. Roseman has enjoyed sustained success by focusing on the trenches. The winning formula will not be changed.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, DT, Illinois
This is a weird one, because most are not expecting the Vikings will hold on to pick 23. Because of this, there hasn’t been much speculation on who the Vikings would select, outside of the QBs.
Due to the lack of analysis and information on this pick, I have to go with positional need. Johnny Newton would be a much needed addition to the Vikings’ weak interior defensive line.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
It’s strange to see the Cowboys, a team very recently known for having an elite offensive line, needing offensive line help, but things change quickly in the NFL.
This is about the right range for Guyton, who I believe is a late first round lock.
25. Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims will probably go higher, but this is just too good of a fit to pass up, and the Packers could very well trade up for him when all is said and done.
Green Bay loves taking inexperienced players with the traits and athletic profile to succeed at the next level. Mims has only 8 career starts at the collegiate level, yet has scouts salivating over his potential.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Chop Robinson has been heavily mocked by insiders to the Bucs, and it makes a lot of sense. He is expected to come off the board in the latter third of the first round, and he slots into a defense that needs a spark.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Cardinals have so many needs that this is more of a dart throw. After securing the top receiver in the draft, they fortify the secondary with Wiggins, who has seen his stock fall a bit in recent weeks.
Still, this is the sweet spot for Wiggins, whose line is currently set at 28.5.
28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
After trading Stefon Diggs, the Bills are desperate for wide receiver help. I think it’s unlikely Brian Thomas falls this far, but I could also see the Bills trading up to ensure they don’t miss out on one of the second tier receivers.
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
I think the Lions go defense here, and corner is one of their top needs. I could see one of McKinstry or Wiggins falling out of the first round, but I like the fit for McKinstry with Detroit. He has been linked to the Lions by quite a few insiders over the past month.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean could go as high as 16 to the Seahawks, who have been linked to him. He would also be a great fit for Miami at 21, Minnesota at 23, and Green Bay at 25.
Suffice it to say that it’s unlikely that DeJean falls this far, but we have seen much more egregious falls, and his fit in the Ravens defense is just too good to pass up.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
Robinson has been pretty heavily linked to the Niners, but at this point in the draft, I just want to fit him into the first round, as I do believe he’ll wind up being a first round selection.
He also happens to fill a position of need here.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
I had Jordan Morgan here for a long time, but given the Chiefs’ connection to Kingsley Suamataia, I could see them opting for the offensive line selection in round two with Suamataia, and grabbing a receiver here.
Ladd McConkey is a fan favorite and has been linked heavily to the Chiefs. Xavier Legette is also a possibility here.