The Official 2022 Rumor Mill Mock Draft

Based on rumors painstakingly aggregated from scouts, draft analysts, beat writers and more

Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.

What is The Rumor Mill Mock Draft?

The Rumor Mill Mock Draft is a 1st round NFL mock draft I’ve put together each year since 2019. I assemble the draft using rumors I have aggregated in the lead-up to the draft from scouts, media insiders, beat writers, analysts, etc.

Why do I spend so much time doing this every year?

1. Because people want to know who their team is drafting. I thought it would make sense to funnel this desire into something good, so I kindly suggest that people who enjoy the content donate whatever they can to the National Down Syndrome Society or a charitable organization of their choice. I put a lot of hours into this project every year and I can’t think of a better reward. Note: Donations are not required for the consumption of the content. Just very appreciated!

2. I’m one of those ^^^ people who wants to know who their team is drafting. And what better way to do that than to obsessively gather every morsel of information on the topic?

Is The Rumor Mill Mock Draft even accurate?

Yes!

Based on The Huddle Report’s scoring system, the 2021 Rumor Mill Mock would have scored a 46, which would have been good for 17th place in the competition (out of 133 submissions).

I have worked twice as hard this year to collect even more information, and am hoping to improve on that number in 2022.

How do I go from a hodgepodge of rumors to an actual mock draft?

Step one is to make sure the source of the rumor is reliable. I will not record a “draft rumor” unless it comes from an active scout, draft analyst, NFL insider, college or NFL coach or assistant coach, or beat writer.

Step two is to be able to differentiate conjecture and analysis from real, actionable information. The hierarchy of information when making a pick for the Rumor Mill Mock is as follows:

1. Real, sourced information (ie. NFL GMs, NFL scouts, Coaches)

2. Analysis from a legitimate NFL source based on team fits, top 30 visits, etc.

3. My own effort to fill in the blanks based on the above information, team visits, team draft history, team needs and fit, positional value, etc.

And yes, I cite sources for all rumors.

The Rumor Mill has spoken

In my three years of collecting draft rumors, this has been by far the most difficult set of rumors to parse out.

What follows could be an incredibly accurate draft or a complete and utter dumpster fire—but that’s part of the fun, right?

What I do know with 100% certainty, is that none of the picks below are simply opinion-based. There’s a method to the madness, as you will soon find.

Presenting all the info

For each team, I’ll weave through what the rumors have said in the lead-up to the draft before eventually zeroing in on the player I believe the team will select.

Obviously, I’d love to get as many picks right as possible, but I think The Rumor Mill Mock draft offers something that’s not found in most mocks: a chronological presentation and analysis of all of the rumors I’ve found for each team drafting in the first round.

Whether the mock zeroes in on the exact player or not, it is sure to provide insight into how each team has operated throughout the offseason, and how draft media has interpreted its actions and needs.

THE RUMOR MILL MOCK DRAFT: 2022

Picks 1-32. No trades. Here we go!

The Pick: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

The Evidence:

By now, anyone who follows the draft with some degree of interest has likely seen the buzz from Schrager, Mike Garafolo, Lance Zierlein, Albert Breer and others that Trent Baalke could opt for the less proven, higher-upside player in Walker.

But let’s not completely rule out the possibility of the Jags prefering Walker.

On 4/20, Thor Nystrom tweeted, “Spoke with a source close to Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson yesterday who told me Hutchinson believes he'll be Jacksonville's pick at No. 1 overall ‘based on his interactions with them.’”

It’s been widely reported (by John Shipley, Tony Pauline, Albert Breer and others) that the front office, ownership, and coaching staff all have different choices for who the pick should be at #1. Apparently, Trent Baalke prefers Walker, while Shad Khan prefers Hutchinson, and new HC Doug Pederson would like an offensive tackle (probably Ekwonu).

If I had to guess today, I’d say it’s Walker over Hutchinson.

On 4/25, Todd McShay wrote:

“All the intel I've gathered points to Georgia edge rusher Travon Walker -- not Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson -- as the No. 1 overall pick for the Jaguars. The belief around the league is Jacksonville prefers the upside and traits of Walker over the proven production, motor and leadership that Hutchinson brings to the table. And it is nearly a lock that one of them will come off the board first.”

I enjoyed this from Matthew Freedman: “I might regret tweeting this, but … There’s no way GM Trent Baalke wants to draft Jim Harbaugh’s golden boy Aidan Hutchinson at No. 1.” While that’s not a rumor per se, it kinda gets you thinking …

Albert Breer writes:

“Multiple rival executives raised to me that Baalke is also sensitive to a perception problem he and his team have right now, and that he, and the team, will get roasted if they do anything other than take Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or get a king’s ransom for the pick.”

But as I alluded above, not everyone is convinced the Jags are even going to take one of the top two EDGE players.

In the final days leading up to the draft, the Ekwonu rumors have intensified, so much so, that I’ve considered slotting him in at #1 instead of Walker.

Let’s explore the Ekwonu option and the buzz behind it:

Matt Lombardo on 4/14 shared, “They could easily go pass-rusher, but it’s the worst kept secret that Doug Pederson wants to go offense with that pick."

Breer echoes rumblings of this in his 4/18 MMQB, and Peter Schrager implies on GMFB that Ekwonu could be a dark horse pick at 1.

On 4/21, Matt Lombardo wrote, “Said this last week. Seems Ekwonu is top OT on the #Jaguars’ board.”

And here's the ‘Monday of Draft Week’ rumor from Matt Miller that had people scrambling:

“It’s draft week, which means it’s lying week, but there is a lot of chatter this morning about the Jaguars and Ikem Ekwonu. COuld be that they like him a lot and might not draft him…but the buzz is definitely out there that he is in play No. 1 overall.”

On that same day, Matt Lombardo added more fuel to the Ekwonu fire:

“Ekwonu has been in play for the #Jaguars for around two weeks. Internal debate seems to be between the top edge rushers and Ekwonu. Have heard multiple places Doug Pederson strongly prefers help on offense. Time will tell.”

And I thought it was interesting that on the Move the Sticks Podcast I listened to on 4/26, Bucky Brooks said, “If Doug Peterson wants a tackle the Jaguars are gonna take the tackle.”

It seems fitting to close with this fairly open-ended quote from Peter King in his final mock:

“Expect a surprise, I heard out of Jacksonville recently. Hmmm. That would eliminate Aidan Hutchinson here. The trendy pick after that has been Walker , so that really wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Ikem Ekwonu, perhaps? I’ll go with the one-year-college-start upside guy, Walker.”

Yes, King explains ‘expect a surprise’ as the Jags picking Walker. But is that even a surprise anymore? Most sports books shifted their odds to favor Walker as the #1 pick as early as Monday.

The real surprise, to me, would be Ekwonu, and I was ‘this’ close to selecting him. But I’ll go Walker, and might regret it.

A late update:

On the evening of 4/27, Michael Schottey tweeted:

“Source close to the situation in Jacksonville tells me that Travon Walker will be the pick tomorrow night.”

I’ll leave it at that.

The Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

The Evidence:

Until the eve of draft day, Hutchinson to the lions felt like the lock of all locks if Jacksonville did indeed decide to take Walker over Hutch.

Let’s explore some of the other options here

On 4/4, Peter King mentioned that the Lions really like Kayvon Thibodeaux. Chris Burke of The Athletic echoed this sentiment on 4/13:

“The Lions keep trying to muddy the waters regarding their plans, but edge rusher is a massive need and they’ve put in a ton of work on this group. Thibodeaux, in particular, has been a focus since early in the college season.”

But about a week ago, the tide started to turn. On 4/15, Albert Breer writes,

“A lot of people are convinced they will go edge rusher here regardless. And I’d agree that if Hutchinson is there, this will become academic for them. If he’s not? Well, I can tell you that no one I’ve talked to at this point believes that Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is in any way a culture fit for Detroit coach Dan Campbell. ‘His personality is a lot,’ said one exec, ‘and you hear the head coach there isn’t a fan.’”

It seemed pretty clear at that point that if Jacksonville were to pass on Hutchinson, the Lions would sprint to turn in that card. But what if Jacksonville were to take Hutchinson? If not Thibodeaux, who else would they look at?

Breer follows up with:

“Walker, on the other hand, would make sense, if the Lions are confident they can develop him into more than he was on his college tape.”

Combine this with the fact that many around the league believe Walker is destined to go in the top 5, and Detroit just makes sense. They’re set at tackle, the second overall pick feels too high for a one of this year’s QBs, Sauce Gardner, or Kyle Hamilton, so if the Lions like Walker and aren’t able to trade down, he feels like the safe bet.

What if they do pull off a trade down?

On 4/18, Breer mentions that a ton of teams with early picks are looking to trade down. He matches them up with S Kyle Hamilton in a trade down scenario, which is why I included him at the bottom of the top 5.

There has also been some smoke on Malik Willis. But it would be a shock for Detroit to take a QB this high, unless their entire pre-draft process has been a massive smokescreen.

So why Hutchinson?

Chris Burke, on 4/22, wrote, that the Lions would likely take Hutchinson if Walker were to come off the board at number one. Otherwise, they might take Thibodeaux.

That same day, Jeff Risdon wrote:

“It’s pretty easy if the Jaguars roll with Walker—it’s Aidan Hutchinson to his hometown Lions. But if Hutchinson is gone, it’s not as simple as just giving Travon Walker to the Lions.”

And here’s Albert Breer in his final MMQB before the draft:

“Consensus for three months has been that if Hutchinson doesn’t go to Jacksonville, the Lions will keep him home—and that makes a ton of sense. If Hutchinson goes first, then Walker is widely seen as a better cultural fit for Dan Campbell’s program than Kayvon Thibodeaux.”

So basically, it’s Hutchinson if he’s still available at 2. If he’s not, some believe it would be Thibodeaux and others are in the Travon Walker camp. Mark me down for the latter, if it comes to that.

Late uncertainty

On the evening of 4/27, Scott Bischoff set the draft world on fire with news that if the Jags were to take Walker first overall, the Lions would take Kayvon Thibodeaux over Aidan Hutchinson, and Hutchinson could fall as far as pick 5 to the Giants.

Often times, in these situations, when there’s smoke, there’s fire. Some mock drafters I really respect in the industry, like Josh Norris, Hayden Winks, and Eliot Crist, have Thibodeaux slotted in here. It would be a shock, but it looks like it’s trending that way.

Here’s some more evidence that the Lions love Thibodeaux:

On the 27th, Josina Anderson posted an interview with Kayvon Thibodeaux. In the Twitter caption, she writes:

“A quick clip from my 1-on-1 interview with Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux @kayvont sharing interesting insights from his in-person interaction with #Lions Executive Vice President and General Manager Brad Holmes and other coaches too”

In the interview, Anderson shares that Lions GM has been to multiple games. It’s been widely reported at this point that Holmes thinks incredibly highly of Thibodeaux.

Anderson was also quoted back in December saying that Thibodeaux to the Lions was basically a done deal.

I thought this tweet from Justin Rogers on 4/27 was pretty compelling, too:

“If the Lions were to end up going with Thibodeaux over Hutchinson at No. 2, it would say a lot about Brad Holmes sticking to his evaluation process without fear of fan backlash. That's an easy-to-appreciate trait.”

It’s worth noting that Peter Schrager, who is incredibly plugged in, still has Hutch at #2. But sometimes, the national media is a bit slower to react, and it just feels like the tides are turning.

My confidence level? 51-49 Thibodeaux.

The Pick: Derek Stingley, Jr., CB, LSU

The Evidence:

What in the world is Houston going to do? Who’s making the decision, Nick Caserio or Lovie Smith? Either way, we don’t get much clarity.

Early on, most of the focus was on Houston taking a tackle.

On 4/11, Jordan Schultz wrote:

“Offensive line is a huge priority for the #Texans in this draft, and another strong signal that the organization believes long-term in Davis Mills. Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are both excellent options at 3.”

Jason La Canfora backs this up on 4/15:

“If that's how it goes down [Defensive Ends going 1 and 2], Nick (Texans GM Nick Caserio) will take Neal (Alabama tackle Evan Neal) with that third pick," said one executive who knows the Texans GM well. "I don't even think that's much of a debate for him. It would be Neal at 3."

And there has been a little bit of buzz on the possibility of Houston taking an edge rusher.

On 4/22, Rivers McCown said he thinks the Texans will lean Edge if Walker or Thibs are still there at 3.

On the same day, in an interview with Jake Sirkus, Benjamin Allbright mentions that the Texans would likely take Travon Walker if he were to fall to 3.

In this scenario, he doesn’t, so what else could they do?

In his second mock, Peter Schrager says, “I’ve heard a lot of noise from folks around the league that Houston could pick one of the two corners—but this seems too rich a spot in the draft to take a DB.”

Is it though?

On 4/20, on the Athletic podcast, Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein made it known that the Texans like both Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley.

The next day, Jordan Ranaan reported he was hearing that Sauce Gardner would be the selection at 3.

Here’s Jeff Risdon on 4/22:

“This is the closest to a lock as you’ll find in this draft. Cincinnati CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner would be the pick if Hutchinson is off the board. I’m more confident in that statement than I am in any other pick in this entire draft.”

In his last MMQB before the draft, Albert Breer writes:

“more than a few personnel people have raised to me what Lovie Smith said about needing corners a couple of weeks ago, a comment that stood out because Smith’s defense hasn’t valued the position the way others have over the years. Which makes me wonder if that might be more of a tell on someone like Washington’s Trent McDuffie or LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. at 13 than Gardner at three (and I’ve heard they like Stingley).”

While Breer is suggesting the Texans could take one of the top two corners at 13, it’s looking nearly impossible that one will be there, which means if they want one, it will likely have to be at 3.

So they’re taking Sauce Gardner, right? Not so fast.

On 4/25, Todd McShay wrote:

“I’ve heard two other intriguing nuggets on the Texans' No. 3 pick:

Gardner could definitely be in the mix, but execs around the NFL believe that LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is higher on the Texans' board and could get attention here.

Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson could be a realistic option. Could the Texans trade up from No. 13 to get him? There's a lot of intel out there that they really like him.”

More on the Wilson buzz later, when we get to pick 13.

Could the Texans really take Derek Stingley at 3?

Here’s Matt Miller on 4/19:

“The Texans have done more work on Derek Stingley than any other team.”

And Miller’s selection at 3 for the Texans in his final mock:

“The first surprise pick of the draft and one I'm hearing considerable buzz about as we get closer to Round 1 kicking off. The Texans have many needs and could truly go "best player available" here, but the allure of Stingley is too great to pass on in a draft class that is not deep at cornerback and is at other positions of need such as wide receiver and defensive end.”

The same day, Miller added, “That Derek Stingley at 3 buzz is getting louder, y'all.”

Matt Miller isn’t the only one:

On 4/26, Ian Rapoport reported that “Derek Stingley is one to watch for the Texans at 3,” and Tom Pelissero said, "Multiple people have told me they would not be shocked if Stingley ends up being the first corner off the board on Thursday night."

I’ll leave you with this, from Austin Gayle, on 4/26:

“Bet Derek Stingley Jr. +300 to go top-five while you still can.”

Late notes

You mean the Texans would really pass on Aidan Hutchinson, were he to fall?

I’m truly not sure. Hutch does seem like the type of high character guy that Nick Caserio would love, but I’m not going to eschew all of the other strong signals we’ve gotten on Houston’s draft plans in favor of a falling player.

Besides, in the video that broke the draft internet, Bischoff states that the Texans’ draft plan would be unlikely to change, were Hutchinson to become an option.

The Pick: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

The Evidence:

Here’s where things get a little crazy, because consensus on who the Jets will pick has shifted back and forth quite a bit over the past few weeks.

Let’s break this down chronologically …

In late May, Connor Hughes wrote:

“We just spoke to Joe Douglas. He said the #Jets are operating as if Mekhi Becton will be one of their two starting OTs. Stressed importance of pass rusher — sure songs like DE at No. 4. Still open to a big trade if a player becomes available.”

About a week later, on 4/6, Tony Pauline wrote that the pick at 4 was likely to be Jermaine Johnson or Sauce Gardner, and stated a few days later that “The Jets have been in constant contact with [Jermaine Johnson] and have been doing an inordinate amount of research on the Florida State product.”

Still unclear to this point: If multiple of the top 4 EDGE options are still on the board after 3 picks, who will the Jets pick?

We get some clarity on this from Connor Hughes on 4/13:

“It’s really hard to see the Jets passing on Thibodeaux at No. 4, but if he’s off the board, watch Florida State edge Jermaine Johnson.”

So it’s Thibodeaux, and then Johnson if Thibodeaux is off the board, right? Well, maybe not …

The argument for Jermaine Johnson

For a long time, it was looking like Kayvon Thibodeaux was going to end up going to the Jets at pick 4.

I’ve presented sourced info and analysis under pick 4 above for why I believe that won’t happen, so I won’t dive into that here.

But let’s look at that quote from Connor Hughes again:

On 4/5, he tweeted:

“Usually smoke where there’s fire. Have had multiple league sources mention Joe Douglas & #Jets’ love of Jermaine Johnson — more so than KT. I believe, based off what I’ve been told, he’d be pick over KT. They have to decide if they feel he’ll be there at 10. If not: Take him at 4”

And here’s the tweet from Dane Brugler on the same topic:

“FWIW: Several around the NFL (who I trust) believe Jermaine Johnson has a higher chance to go No. 4 to the #Jets than Thibodeaux…”

But could Jermaine Johnson fall to the Jets at 10? It certainly feels like the dream scenario. Here’s Jordan Ranaan on the topic, on 4/25:

“A player who will go higher Thursday than most seem to expect is FSU edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. Some I spoke with believe he will ultimately be best pass rusher in this draft. Seems to be a Top 10 lock. Maybe even sneaks into Top 5?’”

This tweet from Connor Rogers on 4/25 gave me some home that Johnson at 10 could happen:

“A huge emphasis on Icky here. I don’t see Joe Douglas passing on that kind of talent on the OL, no matter what. That opens the door for a Jermaine Johnson or top WR situation at 10.”

And here’s Rich Cimini on 4/26:

“What I’m hearing: Despite Lynch saying he “can’t ever imagine” trading Deebo, I think they could for right price. #Jets still lurking … Ickey, Sauce and Jermaine Johnson getting loudest buzz at 4. All the speculation about JJ is true; he’s in mix. Jets seem open to any position”

One last tidbit on Johnson: Dane Brugler, on the 4/25 episode of the NFL Rhodes Show, says that Jermaine Johnson would be the dream scenario for the Jets at 10.

He also says, “Jermaine Johnson hottest name right now. One source said top 10 lock.”

But that was before we learned that Hutchinson might be available

With late rumors that the Lions could go Thibodeaux instead of Hutchinson, the real question for me became, where will Hutchinson fall?

In the aforementioned video that broke the draft internet, Scott Bischoff states that Hutchinson would likely be taken by the Giants, with the Jets’ plans remaining unchanged.

I’m not fully buying that.

On 4/27, on Twitter, I asked Jets beat reporter DJ Bien-Aime if he thought the Jets would take Hutchinson over Ekwonu, were the opportunity to present itself.

His response? “That idk, lol.”

Not super decisive either way, which shows me that most who cover the team never expected Hutchinson to fall this far.

But on the morning of draft day, I found this tweet from Rich Cimini very interesting:

“Connecting dots, based on info-gathering, I’d make this educated guess on #Jets rankings:

1-4: Hutchinson, Walker, Gardner, Ekwonu

5-10: Neal, Johnson, Wilson, London, Stingley, J. Williams”

That tells. me the Jets would take Hutchinson in this situation, and while it’s not iron-clad, I’ll take it.

The Pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

The Evidence:

Opinions on the Giants’ situation have also evolved quite a bit in the lead-up to the draft.

It seems widely agreed that they are eyeing a tackle at 5, but which one?

On 4/5, Jordan Schultz wrote:

“Bama’s Evan Neal is a real possibility at 5 for NY. #Giants like Neal a lot and drafting him would signal a bona fide investment in Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley — something both players deserve.”

Adding credence to Schultz’s opinion, Dan Duggan, on 4/13, wrote,

“If Ekwonu or Neal are available at No. 5, the Giants would likely turn their card in for either without hesitation. If Ekwonu goes to Houston, then the Giants would gladly take Neal. Things would get really interesting if both of those tackles were off the board. The Giants likely would then pivot to defense, with the decision coming down to whichever top edge rusher remains or Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner.”

But would Ahmad Gardner or an Edge Rusher really be the top options with Neal and Ekwonu off the board?

Dan Duggan has shared that the Giants have “done a lot of work on Thibodeaux in the pre-draft process.”

But all signs point to this pick being a tackle or a corner, so what would the other options be?

The late steam has mainly been pointing to Cross, although many are skeptical that the Giants would favor him over Neal or Ekwonu.

On 4/11 Ralph Vacchiano states that he would be shocked, and “so would a lot of others” if the Giants were to pass on Charles Cross with Neal and Ekwonu off the board.

But that seems to imply they would rather have Neal or Ekwonu.

And Albert Breer, on 4/15, writes:

“when I tell you I’ve heard them connected to Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross, you might think that’d be a reach at No. 5. I’m here to tell you it wouldn’t be.”

Also on 4/15, Matt Miller chimes in, mentioning that the Giants have “shown a ton of interest” in Cross.

But the key has always been: If given the choice between the top 3 tackles, which one would the Giants take?

In his second mock, Peter Schrager has the Giants taking Cross over Evan Neal, and on the same day, Art Stapleton tweeted:

“I don’t know what the Giants would do if they have to choose between Ekwonu, Neal, and Cross at No. 5 if all were available. But I would not be stunned, as @PSchrags has it in his latest mock, if Giants go Cross over Neal.

Jordan Ranaan’s, on 4/21, says the Giants are likely to pick Neal at 5 if he’s there, and Sauce Gardner at 7. He writes:

“With what the Giants are trying to do with their new offense, Cross and Neal seem like ideal fits.”

“I think he’s [Neal] going to be available for the Giants,” and he is probably who they will take.

“It’s hard for me to see them leapfrogging those guys [Neal, Ekwonu] to take Cross”

The next day, Ranaan adds:

“There are people in the Giants high on Mississippi State OT Charles Cross. That is true. But it doesn’t necessarily mean they have him graded higher than Evan Neal. I’d be surprised if the Giants didn’t take Neal over Cross at 5 if he’s still on the board.”

And Art Stapleton confirmed this on 4/25:

“Said this last week, and I’ll say it again as we count down days until this draft, based on my reporting since the Combine: Giants like Charles Cross, but … I still believe they like Evan Neal more and would take Neal over Cross if that’s the call to make at No. 5 on Thursday.”

A note on corners:

The Giants have been linked to the top two corners in the class for some time. While I could definitely see them taking one at 5, I think they will be mindful of the fact that Carolina is likely to take an OT at 6 and take their pick of the remaining OT options ahead of them.

More on corners and the Giants when we discuss pick 7.

Late uncertainty:

On the evening of 4/27, Scott Bischoff set the draft world on fire with news that if the Jags were to take Walker first overall, the Lions would take Kayvon Thibodeaux over Aidan Hutchinson, and Hutchinson could fall as far as pick 5 to the Giants.

I do think the Giants would take Hutchinson if he were to fall this far, but I don’t think he will.

Why Cross over Neal?

Until draft day, I was pretty convinced, based on the quotes cited above from Art Stapleton and others, that if presented with the choice, the Giants would take Charles Cross over Evan Neal.

But over the past couple of days, I’ve heard a decent amount of rumbling about Neal having a potential knee issue, which could cause him to take a bit of a tumble down boards.

The voices on this have been conflicting, with some mentioning it shouldn’t be an issue, and others claiming it could cause a fall.

What I do know, is that a lot of the late drafts coming out have Neal being taken a bit further down.

And in his final mock, Peter Schrager has the Giants taking Cross over Neal, and writes:

“I've been hearing Cross to the Giants for weeks now. Nothing has happened that would change my tune.”

The Pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

The Evidence:

Before we begin …

I want to make it clear that I do not think the Panthers would take Kenny Pickett at 6. I’m not even sure they would take Pickett, but my logic is as follows:

1. I think Kenny Pickett will be selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft

2. I think that of all teams selecting in round 1, he’s most likely to end up with Carolina

3. I think that Carolina needs more picks, so trading down and landing Pickett could be a dream scenario for them.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff

Carolina’s pick is quite possibly the most controversial selection in the first round.

Will they go QB?

It sure looked that way early on:

As early as 2/5 ProFootballTalk reported that Kenny Pickett talked to the Panthers at the Senior Bowl and has a great relationship with Coach Matt Rhule.

On 2/9, Jason La Canfora wrote:

"I don't think he [Pickett] makes it past the Panthers," said one evaluator who has done extensive work on Pickett. "Their owner (David Tepper) is a huge Pitt booster. He hasn't invested draft capital in a quarterback yet. He has to know the Steelers like him (Tepper is a former minority investor in the Steelers). I think that's a fit."

While the QB conversation remained very much alive, in early April, we started hearing that a QB selection at 6 was not set in stone, and Carolina, in fact, would be considering other positions.

On 4/4, PFN reported, “sources close to the Panthers tell PFN that right now, it comes down to a pair of players for Carolina — Charles Cross or Ikem Ekwonu.”

And I found this 4/11 tweet from Josh Norris compelling:

“Let’s read the tea leaves:

• Scott Fitterer traded back 4x in 2021, his first draft as a GM

• Panthers do not own a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

• The Panthers are the only QB needy team with enough cap space for BM/JG

You think they are staying at 6 for a QB?”

And then we started to hear that while the Panthers were likely to go QB, it wasn’t necessarily going to end up being Kenny Pickett.

On 4/11 on GMFB, Peter Schrager said, “Amidst all the Pickett-to-Panthers talk, I believe Matt Corral is a real possibility at 6 to Carolina, too.”

Here’s Albert Breer’s intel as of 4/15:

“In the end, other teams are convinced they’ll swallow hard and take a quarterback. I personally believe that they’d probably most like to trade down

The interesting thing is the one name they’ve been linked to most publicly, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, is one I haven’t heard quite as much for them of late …

… I’ve heard Liberty’s Malik Willis and Ole Miss’s Matt Corral, and even Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, tied to the Panthers more in recent days.”

On 4/15, Jason La Canfora reported that a source told him, “If Willis or (Pitt QB Kenny) Pickett are there, I don't believe they can pass on them. I'm pretty convinced of it.”

La Canfora adds:

“The consensus of the people in this league I know well, who know this franchise well, is that they will take Willis if both QBs are there, and they'll take Pickett if Willis is gone.”

But many remain skeptical that in a last-chance type year for Matt Rhule, he would tie himself to a mediocre QB prospect.

On 4/15, Jon Alexander, on The Roar Podcast, said, “I think one of the Panthers QB’s, when it’s all said and done, is going to either be Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield,” and followed that up with “I will be shocked if the Panthers take Kenny Pickett at 6.”

Per Ian Rapoport, on 4/18, the Panthers hosted Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross for in-person visits.

It’s looking more and more likely that Carolina might end up with Garoppolo or Mayfield, both of whom would provide them with a more competitive option in the short term than any first round prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft.

That would likely them with one of the top OTs, which are likely to be some of the best prospects left on the board, and would fill an area of need.

The team has been linked to Cross for over a month, but the buzz has only intensified in the days prior to the draft:

Tony Pauline, on 4/23, said, “No one I spoke with expects Cross to get past the Carolina Panthers at No. 6.”

And here’s Todd McShay on the same day:

“Keep hearing NYG and CAR connected to Mississippi St OT Charles Cross. It’s lying season so take it FWIW. If true, NYG should take Cross at 5, knowing CAR is likely to go OT or QB at 6. Then NYG gets same EDGE at 7 as it would’ve gotten at 5. Only potential flaw = CAR trading 6.”

One more for good measure?

Here’s Albert Breer on the 25th:

“I think there’s a way better chance they’ll take a tackle here over a quarterback than most people do—provided that Cross, Ekwonu or Neal is still available when they’re up.”

But Cross is gone in this scenario, and there are some late budding medical concerns for Evan Neal.

I think the Panthers are going to try desperately to trade down, and if they do, I can see them taking Pickett.

The Pick: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

The Evidence:

We’ve already concluded that an OT is likely for the Giants at pick 5.

If you need more evidence on that, here’s a quote I really like from Todd McShay on 4/25:

“I'm hearing New York could look to get its tackle of choice first before addressing the pass rush at No. 7.”

And I’ll reiterate the comment from Jordan Ranaan on 4/21 stating that the Giants would likely take Neal if he’s there at 5, and then Sauce Gardner at 7.

Now that the Giants have their tackle, what position unit will they choose to reinforce at 7?

Many believe they will go defense. The first we heard of this was from Tony Pauline, who mentioned in late March that pick 7 to the Giants was the likely floor for Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Matt Miller also stated the week prior to the draft that 7 would likely be the floor for Thibodeaux.

But lately, there have been rumors that Thibodeaux could fall further than expected. Combine that with the fact that both of the top corners are shooting up boards, and I see a corner as the more likely option here:

Derek Stingley has also been linked to the Giants by the likes of Dan Duggan and Daniel Jeremiah. If the Texans were to opt for Gardner over Stingley at 3, I think the Giants would take Stingley here.

So with Ahmad Gardner as the best available option in this scenario, let’s revisit the quote from Dan Duggan on 4/13:

“If Ekwonu or Neal are available at No. 5, the Giants would likely turn their card in for either without hesitation. If Ekwonu goes to Houston, then the Giants would gladly take Neal. Things would get really interesting if both of those tackles were off the board. The Giants likely would then pivot to defense, with the decision coming down to whichever top edge rusher remains or Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner.”

And the Sauce Gardner talk has been heating up

On 4/14, Connor Hughes wrote, “The Giants are apparently quite fond of [Sauce Gardner] and select fifth and seventh.”

And apparently, he’s the player Wink Martindale wants.

There has also been chatter that the Giants are looking to trade down, but if they aren’t able to pull that off, they will gladly take the top CB on the board as a solution to the James Bradberry uncertainty.

The Pick: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

The Evidence:

The Atlanta pick is starting to feel like another major pivot point in this draft.

They have tons of roster holes and have therefore been tied to just about every position.

On 4/5, @FalcoholicKevin writes:

“I know this is gonna make #Falcons fans mad, but you should mentally prepare yourself for Desmond Ridder at 8. I don’t know that it’s *likely*, but it’s definitely *possible*. With the #Saint now positioned for a trade-up, it’s seeming like Malik Willis isn’t going to be there.”

And Cam Marino chimes in:

“Maybe the Falcons at 8 is more possible than folks think [for Ridder]. Remember—I was told they were very high on him months ago. That has been persistent.”

But the Desmond Ridder talk seems to have died off and given way to a great deal of speculation on receivers:

On 4/6, on Draft Insiders, Tony Pauline mentioned the Falcons’ plans were subject to change but they were focusing mostly on receivers.

That same day, Cam Marino wrote:

“Add @AaronWilson_NFL to the list of analysts who are mocking #OhioState WR Garrett Wilson to the #Falcons at pick 8. Certainly a theme among the large contingency of NFL draft media.”

On 4/13, uSTADIUM wrote that Jameson Williams could be the first WR taken and the #Falcons might be the team.

But lately, buzz has been picking up that the Falcons are looking at other positions

Cam Marino has linked Atlanta to multiple players, ranging from Devin Lloyd (why I would have put on this list at #6), to Kayvon Thibodeaux (who I don’t expect to be available).

And on 4/13, Jeff Schultz had an interesting nugget on Jordan Davis:

“Former Georgia DT Jordan Davis, who’s attending the Braves’ game, on whether he has spoken with the Falcons in pre-draft meetings: “I can’t give out all the secrets but we talked a couple of times. I’d love to stay home. I have a preference but you cant make everything happen”

Earlier this month, Ben Standig, who is very plugged in, mocked Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Falcons. As I mentioned above, I don’t think he will be available, but does that give us a hint on which other players may be in play?

On 4/16, Cam Marino wrote:

“Source says the Falcons are one of the teams in the top 10 that have a ‘premier’ grade on Jermaine Johnson. I expect ATL to have an immoderate interest for him at pick eight.”

Peter Schrager adds to the validity of Jermaine Johnson to the Falcons by stating, “Atlanta viewed as a true ‘Best Player Available’ situation at 8. Could be looking at any of the WRs, any of the QBs, and the third OT or DE.”

Per Lance Zierlein, they are also trying to shop pick 8, but if they aren’t able to, the breadcrumbs are pointing toward Atlanta drafting the best available player.

The question becomes: Will they opt to start the run on receivers, or will they prefer a potential impact player like Jermaine Johnson?

Will the Falcons start the run on receivers?

The overwhelming recent buzz leads me to believe Drake London is the player the Falcons truly covet.

Let’s explore the option in more depth:

On 4/24, Daniel Jeremiah mentioned that he would be surprised if Drake London is still there at 10th overall.

With Atlanta being the only likely team to take a WR ahead of the Jets, this seems like a suggestion that the Falcons are going to pounce on London.

From there, the London buzz has gone absolutely crazy:

On 4/25, Josh Norris tweeted, “The buzz is building for Drake London to be the first WR off the board.”

Peter King has the Falcons taking London at 8 in his final mock, and writes, “Kind of the first ‘they could do five things here’ pick. I’m going with the receiver I hear they love.”

Here’s Albert Breer’s take in his final MMQB before the draft:

“Albert Breer: A lot of people have the Falcons pegged to take a receiver here, with USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson names to watch. It’s to the point where Atlanta is seen as the team to get in front of if you want your pick of the receiver group. London is very much seen as Arthur Smith’s type of wideout—big and tough and a strong blocker.”

And Todd McShay echoes the London love:

“It's very possible that Atlanta focuses its attention on wide receiver, and specifically Wilson or London. I've heard there are people in the building who are high on London. Olamide Zaccheaus is the team's current WR1.”

Two more for good measure:

On 4/25, Charles Robinson mentions that he believes Drake London will be the first WR off the board to the Falcons. “He is the guy they really like,” he says.

And on 4/26, Cam Marino tweeted:

“​​It’s the 11th hour and the #Falcons selecting #USC WR Drake London is gaining major steam in media. Take that how you wish.”

What if Thibodeaux slides?

With rumors early last week that Thibodeaux could slide down draft boards, many, including Benjamin Allbright, have mentioned pick 8 as a possible landing spot for the talented edge rusher.

This would make sense, and could very well happen, but I’m going to go with the player who has gotten an insane amount of buzz in connection to the team in the three days prior to the draft.

And a late tweet from Peter Schrager on 4/27 adds to the confusion:

“Another note… everyone was slotting WR to Atlanta at 8 because of obvious needs. Feeling around the league is that could just as easily be pass rusher. If Jermaine Johnson or Thibodeaux are on the board, that could very well be ATL’s area of focus.”

Schrager then has Atlanta selecting Thibodeaux at 8.

What if Thibodeaux doesn’t slide?

With late rumors that Thibodeaux could end up going to the Lions at pick 2, I'm still about 50-50 on whether Atlanta will select a receiver or opt to take a sliding “best player available” type.

I keep coming back to Schrager’s quote from the night of the 27th, and his decision not to slot London in here in his final mock.

Jermaine Johnson to Atlanta has gotten consistent buzz over the entire pre-draft process. I think they could very well take him.

The Pick: Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

The Evidence:

Seattle? In the top 10? Here’s a team that has either not drafted in the first round (or drafted a consensus round 1 player in the first round, for that matter) in what feels like a decade. Where do we even begin?

Early post-Wilson trade speculation had the Seahawks zeroed in on a QB to compete with Drew Lock.

On 4/5, @Schultz_Report tweeted that Desmond Ridder had a top-30 visit scheduled with Seattle, and on 4/13, Jeff Bell tweeted, “The Seahawks are going to draft Desmond Ridder,” though he admitted to me that it was his own analysis and speculation.

The QB trail has since cooled.

On 4/6, @MattFTheOracle, in his mock draft on FantasyPros, noted that Pete Carroll and John Schneider had gone to zero of the top QBs pro days. He notes that this is unusual for them based on their behavior in the past when they have drafted QBs.

There have been a host of other positions and specific players linked to Seattle

On 4/15, Cam Marino wrote, “The Seahawks are gonna draft Devin Lloyd at 9.”

That same day, in his mock draft, Evan Silva (a notoriously accurate mock drafter in the past) picked Lloyd for the Seahawks, writing:

“Lloyd is my pick to be this year’s college prospect drafted far earlier than expected. I can envision old-school coach Pete Carroll falling for Lloyd as Bobby Wagner’s replacement”

I just don’t see a linebacker who turns 24 early in the 2022 season going this high.

Seattle has also been linked to some of the top tackles

On 4/15, Albert Breer wrote:

“Remember, Schneider’s never been afraid to do something that’s a little different, or value certain players he deems as Seattle types differently, and that’s where I’ll introduce you to Northern Iowa’s tough, mean tackle, Trevor Penning, who might need work to play left tackle in the pros, but brings a boatload of edge to the field.”

Brady Henderson echoed this on 4/18:

“Offensive tackle is the most glaring need, though the Seahawks could potentially bring back Duane Brown and/or Brandon Shell, as both former starters remain unsigned.”

Others have suggested the Seahawks could be in the market for one of the top two corners

In the same MMQB quoted above, Albert Breer mentions the Seahawks could be perfectly positioned for a corner like Ahmad Gardner (although most signs are pointing to him being off the board by that point), but adds, “Seattle’s history under John Schneider and Pete Carroll has always been to find and/or manufacture corners in nontraditional ways.”

It just feels like both the top corners would be gone by this point.

Despite the needs at QB, OT, LB and CB the loudest buzz has been hinting at Edge Rushers.

On 4/6, Matt Miller ,on the ESPN First Draft Podcast, mentioned that Seahawks have been linked to Jermaine Johnson and Kayvon Thibodeaux".

On 4/14, Rob Staton of the Seahawks Draft Blog wrote:

“I think the top realistic target is Jermaine Johnson at #9. He fits what the Seahawks like — he ran a 1.5 10-yard split and he has fantastic hands to disengage and disrupt. He’s quick to the edge and plays with intensity and violence. He has good length and size. He’s a potential heart-and-soul type who can help shape the identity of the team for the next few years. I just don’t think he lasts to #9, unfortunately. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Seattle’s ‘Plan A’ is Jermaine Johnson.”

Based on the way the surrounding picks are looking, pick 9 feels like the right place for Johnson to come off the board.

Would Pete Carroll be too tempted by a sliding Kayvon Thibodeaux?

On 4/22, as a guest on Jake Sirkus’ podcast, Benjamin Allbright mentioned that Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to fall a lot further than people think. He mentions Atlanta as Thibodeaux’s ceiling, and thinks he could be the pick for Seattle if he gets there.

Here’s Maurice Moton on 4/22,

“In a recent mock draft, Condotta believes that edge-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux would be a "no-brainer" pick if he fell to the Seahawks at No. 9. He's not buying into the idea of taking a quarterback in that spot, though.”

And Albert Breer echoed that sentiment on 4/25:

“The dream come true would be an edge rusher like Walker or Thibodeaux, or a tackle like Cross falling into their laps at No. 9.”

In his final mock draft, Peter King has Seattle trading down to pick 13 and still landing Thibodeaux. This could be a sign of both the Seahawks’ interest in the Oregon edge rusher, and the likelihood that he could be in for a more significant slide than many think.

Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/26, confirms: “If Thibodeaux falls there, I was told Pete Carroll would take him.”

Long story short, the evidence points to Thibodeaux being pretty high on Seattle’s board.

Could the Seahawks surprise us yet again?

A team that’s taken Rashaad Penny, LJ Collier, and Jordyn Brooks with it’s last three first rounders could definitely shake things up.

On 4/25, Todd McShay wrote:

“I'm hearing a lot of noise about the Seahawks taking a hard look at Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis here. The massive run-stopper had a legendary combine workout, and he has been sneaking up boards ever since -- and Seattle could take him in the top 10.”

And Jordan Davis has gained even more steam since then, with McShay doubling down that he’s hearing the Seahawks will take Jordan Davis at 8.

Do I think that happens if Kayvon is there at 9? No. But Thibodeaux goes at 2 in this mock, so without him on the board, I could see Seattle making the Davis pick in a trade down scenario, or just flat out loving him enough to take him at 9.

I know two of the top tackles are still on the board in this scenario, but I don’t expect it to shake out exactly that way, and I’m still not sure Pete Carroll would pass up on a prospect he’s rumored to love.

The Pick: Ikem Ekwonu, Tackle, NC State

The Evidence:

I’ll admit, this is a bit of a hedge, because I think the two players the Jets are most likely to pick at four are Ikem Ekwonu and Aidan Hutchinson (before draft day, it was Jermaine Johnson).

I do think they could go receiver here, based on the buzz, but I’m pretty confident they will end up with at least one of Ekwonu and Hutchinson, potentially both, if Hutchinson does indeed fall.

Disclaimer

Do I think Ekwonu falls this far? Absolutely not. I think there are solid odds the Jets take him at four, and if not, I could see them trading up a few spots to grab him.

Let’s start from the beginning:

We’ve gotten some random whispers, like Tony Pauline on 4/6, stating that the Jets really like Trevor Penning. But there doesn’t seem to be much buzz going in that direction, even though, according to PFN, “Jets coaches have confided to several players the team will go offensive tackle early in the draft.”

There’s been a great deal of speculation that the Jets could grab a corner at pick 10. On 4/19, DJ Bien-Aime tweeted, “Derek Stingley visiting the Jets today. Fwiw there’s people in the building who don’t believe there was a significant drop off from that 2019 year.”

But the corner buzz has not been very consistent, and the Jets’ need at Wide Receiver has overshadowed just about every other position.

On 4/15, Albert Breer wrote:

“If they stick here, I could see the Jets catching a falling Gardner or Thibodeaux, or maybe even Stingley. Absent that, I think this a spot where help could come for Zach Wilson, if all the receivers are sitting there for the Jets. In this scenario, they are, and this is the range where both USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson are pegged to be in play (and maybe Alabama’s Jameson Williams, too, based on teams’ comfort level with his ACL).”

Connor Hughes seems to agree, stating, “They’re not drafting a cornerback at No. 4 or 10.”

Along the same lines, Hughes believes that:

“unless the Jets manage to trade for a WR (which seems less and less likely by the day) they will address the position with this pick. Wilson’s run after the catch ability makes him a perfect fit in Mike LaFleur’s offense.”

So which receiver would they take in this scenario?

On 4/18, Rich Cimini noted that the Jets are keen on Jameson Williams, since he “would be similar to a Tyreek Hill type.”

On 4/19, DJ Bien Aime writes:

“One polarizing option is Alabama’s Jameson Williams with the No. 10 overall pick.Team sources love Williams because he would add an explosiveness to the offense that was missing last year.”

Whether or not the Jets pull the trigger on Williams, this feels like a safe spot for the first or second receiver to come off the board.

What about Drake London and Garrett Wilson?

On 4/27, Paul Andrew Esden, Jr. mentioned “NYJ as a logical landing spot for Drake London if they're unable to land Deebo Samuel.”

He’s not the only one who has linked London to the Jets. 

On 4/24, Daniel Jeremiah mentioned that he would be surprised if Drake London is still there at 10th overall, implying that the Falcons were likely to take him. He also mentioned that the Jets would likely run in the card if London were to fall to them. 

Does that mean they would take him over Jameson Williams? I’m not sure, but the buzz is certainly there.

Garrett Wilson has visited the Jets this offseason and is definitely on the table.

On 4/25, Matt Miller tweeted: 

“It's definitely being talked about a ton behind the scenes today. 

But…do the Jets use No. 10 on a WR (Garrett Wilson) or trade it for one?”

It feels like draft media is torn on a few things:

1. Which WRs will be available for the Jets when they pick at 10?

2. Would the Jets even take a WR over, say, a falling Jermaine Johnson?

3. If the Jets are set on a receiver at 10, which one of the above three would they draft?

Love for Ickey

On 4/14. Rich Cimini acknowledges that Thibodeaux is an option at four, but goes on to state, “They really like OT Ickey Ekwonu (5), I’m told. KT would fill the bigger need. They’ve done a lot of work on him”

On 4/15, Albert Breer adds fuel to the Ekwonu speculation:

“Edge rusher is a need. Corner is too, and we saw GM Joe Douglas take a swing at getting Zach Wilson a weapon in the Jets’ bid for Tyreek Hill. But there’s still a feeling he’ll take an offensive lineman in the first round for the third time in as many years as GM with one of his two first-round picks. And Ekwonu, a real mauler, is the one I’ve heard the Jets connected to most.”

And here’s Connor Hughes again:

“[Taking an OT] is only a conversation if Ikem Ekwonu is there. And the only way Ekwonu is there is if pass rushers go 1, 2 and 3. Douglas would then have to pick between the fourth-best pass rusher in this class (one that was already without a Nick Bosa or Chase Young), or an offensive lineman that many believe is among the top prospects in several years. Ekwonu is the pick I believe Douglas makes in this situation.”

Regardless of all this, up until a few days ago, I was convinced the Jets were going to take Thibodeaux.

That changed on 4/25, when Connor Hughes wrote:

“Usually smoke where there’s fire. Have had multiple league sources mention Joe Douglas & #Jets’ love of Jermaine Johnson — more so than KT. I believe, based off what I’ve been told, he’d be pick over KT. They have to decide if they feel he’ll be there at 10. If not: Take him at 4.”

That same day, Mike Garafolo wrote, “could be between Sauce and Ekwonu for the Jets at 4. They really like Ekwonu,” and added, “Not feeling [Thibodeaux] at 4. I believe he’s going to slide.”

Dane Brugler adds some steam to the Jermaine Johnson rumors here:

“FWIW: Several around the NFL (who I trust) believe Jermaine Johnson has a higher chance to go No. 4 to the #Jets than Thibodeaux…”

I’ll quit with the Jermaine Johnson speculation for now, because I’ll be discussing his connection to the Jets later on (hint, hint), and I think that if Ekwonu is on the board at 4, he will be the Jets’ selection.

On 4/26, Dane Brugler wrote, “There are plenty of people around the league that think Mekhi Becton will never put on a #Jets jersey ever again, yeah they think that ship has sailed.”

That, combined with Joe Douglas’ penchant for taking offensive linemen early and often, signals to me that they won’t pass on arguably the top prospect at the position if he falls to 4.

Here’s Jeff Risdon, on 4/22:

“Ikem Ekwonu from North Carolina State makes the most sense because he can spend 2022 as a guard and then kick outside to tackle when one (or both) of the current starting tackles are gone after the season. I am a believer that the No. 4 pick will be one or the other. Given that Thibodeaux is far more likely to last to the pick at 10, I lean Ekwonu.”

And Albert Breer, echoing that sentiment on 4/25:

“Everyone has an edge rusher, corner or receiver going here. But there’s persistent buzz connecting GM Joe Douglas to Ekwonu (and potentially even Neal), which puts where the team stands on its 2020 first-round pick, Mekhi Becton, in the foreground. Ekwonu is 100% Douglas’s type of player and has the athleticism to thrive in Mike LaFleur’s offense.”

Need some more evidence?

Here’s Connor Rogers on 4/25:

“A huge emphasis on Icky here. I don’t see Joe Douglas passing on that kind of talent on the OL, no matter what. That opens the door for a Jermaine Johnson or top WR situation at 10.”

And perhaps the biggest hint, from DJ Bien-Aime on 4/26:

“Jets GM Joe Douglas unlikely to pass on NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu at No. 4: sources.”

Later, Bien-Aime adds, “For the people who don’t want Ickey at 4, just hope he’s not there.”

In the evening on 4/26, Matt Miller tweeted, “Jets connected to tackle at 4 by a rival team that needs an OT. Source thinks they’re moving on from Becton.”

Long story short, I think there’s an extremely high probability that Ikem Ekwonu wakes up a New York Jet on Friday morning.

The Pick: Drake London, WR, USC

The Evidence:

All the buzz points in two directions:

Washington is either going receiver or defensive back. The option they choose will likely depend on who falls to them.

On 4/6, Josh Norris tweeted, “As @BillyM_91 acutely pointed out, Ron Rivera rarely travels to pro days. He was all over the Ohio State WRs in March.” Norris also suggests that the Commanders have an interest in Olave, but the visit could be to get a look at Garrett Wilson as well.

Most of the buzz has been suggesting that if the Commanders were to take a WR, it would be one of the Ohio State guys. It will be interesting to see if their presumed interest in Olave over Wilson is real, or if it is a reflection of their belief that Wilson will be gone by pick 11.

On 4/26, Ben Standig has this to say about the receivers Washington could be targeting:

“Arguably four candidates exist in that WR grouping, but it’s the 6-foot-4 London rising as the favorite, per league sources, as a good fit for Washington’s situation.”

He adds,

“Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Alabama’s Jameson Williams are the other first-receiver-drafted candidates, while Wilson’s teammate, Chris Olave, appears in high regard by Washington.

Standig had previously implied, on 4/24, that if London were to fall, he would get a hard look.

Here’s Todd McShay on 4/25:

“Nothing new here, but the Washington Commanders are all in on finding another wide receiver. I've heard two very different nuggets on their preference at No. 11. One GM told me that buzz around the league points to Washington taking Ohio State's Chris Olave, pairing him with a former Buckeyes teammate in Terry McLaurin. But another says London is rumored to be much higher on Washington's board at the position. Regardless, it might be a moot point if London goes to the Falcons or Jets.”

And Albert Breer, in his final MMQB before the draft:

“if I had to guess, this would be London’s floor. Wilson would be another really good on-field fit alongside McLaurin. But I’m keeping an eye on Ohio State’s Chris Olave here, too, as he’s very close with McLaurin and is a fantastic cultural fit for the Commanders”

Peter King is of a similar opinion in his final mock:

“I can’t see [Chris Olave] lasting to the twenties. The fourth of four straight wideouts makes too much sense for Washington , which I think loves Drake London but will be thrilled with the sub-4.4 speed and top football IQ of Olave.”

King actually has the Commanders selecting Olave.

Surprisingly, other than the Commanders being at the Ohio State pro day, there hasn’t been much buzz on Garrett Wilson. And 11 feels a bit high for Olave, who is slated to go in the mid teens.

Which leads me to …

Exploring the DB option:

When I say DB, I mean Kyle Hamilton. I don’t think a top corner will fall this far, so it’s really just him who will be in consideration.

In his latest mock, Ben Standig paired the Washington Commanders with LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. In his podcast, Standig acknowledges the perception that Washington is targeting a receiver, but says he thinks the team has faith in Dyami Brown developing in his second year and the potential for Cam Sims to play a larger role.

Standig is very plugged in, and performs very well most years in predictive mocks. Not to mention he covers the Commanders specifically.

But all that was before Stingley flew up boards and became a top-10 lock.

Enter Kyle Hamilton:

On 4/7, Peter Schrager, in his first mock, writes:

“[Kyle] Hamilton is a Ron Rivera-type player: Smart, competitive and a leader. He immediately boosts the Commanders' defense and is that dude behind their loaded front.”

And Standig, on 4/14, says:

“hearing more from scouts/sources about likelihood of Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton available at 11 … and projections now include 1-2 QBs in top 10”

On the same day, Bruce Feldman mentions he has Kyle Hamilton going to the Commanders at 11 in his mock.

Standig confirmed on 4/18 that the Commanders were having Hamilton in for a visit.

We rarely get this much buzz on one player ending up with a team. If Hamilton falls, and it’s looking increasingly likely that he will, it seems like a good match.

Here’s some more nuggets:

On 4/25, Dane Brugler, on the NFL Rhodes Show, said “I don’t know if the Commanders could pass on Hamilton if he falls there.”

And here’s the most recent buzz on Hamilton from Standig, coming on 4/26:

“sources see this 6-foot-4 defender as the home run choice if available. One scout called Hamilton a “unicorn” because of exceptional versatility, size and playmaking, while comparing him to Carolina linebacker Shaq Thompson. Rivera indirectly mentioned Thompson on Monday by noting the Panthers had a linebacker play the defensive nickel.”

He adds,

“It’s that hybrid role where Hamilton logically fits with Washington, and there is an opening following the release of Landon Collins. Case closed if he’s there, right?”

Late notes:

This is another one that’s 50-50 for me. If London were to fall to 12, I believe he would be the pick, but despite the sharp mocks giving Olave to Washington at 11, if just feels a tad early.

But no one knows anything. This JP Finlay tweet from 4/26 sums it up:

“As Drake London and Kyle Hamilton emerge as most likely picks for Commanders at 11, I keep reminding myself that Jamin Davis surprised me and most people last year. You never know anything this time of year.”

If Hamilton isn’t taken here, he could slide all the way to 15.

The Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

The Evidence:

Here’s another pick that could play out a million different ways:

All new front office, headed up by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. All new coaching staff, headed by Kevin O’Connell. Cap-strapped roster that will need to replace aging veterans at many positions sooner or later.

This quote from Albert Breer on 4/25 sums it up:

“it’s a good bet that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell, with the first pick they’ll make together, let this pick come to them and take the best player available, regardless of position. It’s worth mentioning that Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell both come from places that value premium positions and elite traits, so a falling Kyle Hamilton, the super-sized Notre Dame safety, or Stingley could fit the bill here.”

So what will Minnesota do?

Ever since the Vikings signed Za’Darius Smith, the consensus in the media has been Corner.

As early as 4/3, Peter King noted, “The Vikings are interested in Stingley too, and they might view a one-year Patrick Peterson mentorship (LSU ties) worthy of trying to trade up for him.”

On 4/6, Tony Pauline, on a PFN YouTube video, mentioned that the Vikings love Trent McDuffie and could trade down and take him.

On 4/12, Chad Graff writes:

In a dream world for them, I think they'd trade back and still be able to get cornerback Trent McDuffie. That could be the case if they don't love Derek Stingley Jr. and/or Stingley Jr. gets taken right before they're on the clock.

And here’s Matt Miller on 4/16:

“For Stingley, the LSU cornerback, the Vikings at No. 12 feels like the absolute bottom of his range.”

On the same day, Jeremy Fowler confirms, “The Vikings like Derek Stingley.”

And on 4/19, Darren Wolfson mentions that the Vikings “have the book on Derek Stingley,” since they hired his old DBs coach Daronte Jones from LSU.

Sensing a theme here?

So what if Stingley is gone and a trade down for McDuffie doesn’t materialize?

Here’s Peter Schrager, in his latest mock:

“Minnesota picks 12th overall. Bright young HC and innovative new GM. Two defensive names w/ ties who could be on board there:— Derek Stingley, Jr. , CB, LSU: Could be a young apprentice to LSU legend Patrick Peterson—Jermaine Johnson II, DE, FSU: Eden Prairie, MN native.”

There have been some whispers of interest in Kyle Hamilton, were he to fall. But even those involve Stingley:

Here’s Matthew Freedman on 4/18: “Stingley or Hamilton look like very strong possibilities. I lean toward Stingley.”

Dane Brugler on the 4/25 episode of the NFL Rhodes Show, mentions that the Vikings would probably jump at the chance to get Hamilton if he falls there, “unless they have someone higher on their board.”

But Stingley is unlikely to fall to 12. So are Johnson, and Hamilton. So where do we go from here?

On 4/18, Chad Graff, said, “If Stingley isn’t there, I think a trade back is the most likely option.”

On a SKOR North podcast on 4/26, Darren Wolfson said that if he had to guess right now, he thinks the Vikings will trade down.

Tony Pauline mentioned a possible trade down with the Chargers at 17. In this scenario, the Trent McDuffie pick becomes a bit more logical.

There’s even been some buzz about trading up:

On 4/19, on KFAN, Vikings play-by-play announcer Paul Allen mysteriously said “going from 12 to 4 could happen.”

And on 4/26, Darren Wolfson mentioned that the Vikings have had conversations with the Giants at 7 and the Jets at 10, though he also says he highly doubts it will happen.

And I agree. It’s hard to see an analytics-centric front office giving up a ton of assets to move up in a draft with arguably zero elite prospects. Who would that move be for? Sauce Gardner? Stingley? I’m skeptical.

Is there wide receiver interest?

After all, only two, or potentially just one of the top four receivers will be gone by 12, meaning the Vikings could be in a prime spot to take one.

On 4/7, Darren Wolfson said not to rule out the Vikings taking a WR at 12, claiming that they like Drake London and Garrett Wilson more that the others who are likely to be available in that range.

But I’m also skeptical they will take a receiver. If anything, they may look to trade down with a receiver-needy team like the Chiefs.

On 4/26, during GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s pre-draft press conference, he said that WR coach Keenan McCardell gave a passionate speech to others in the draft room about picking a different position. KAM used that as an example of the group thinking about what’s best for the team.

But GMs never lie, right?

Long story short, it’s unlikely that Sauce or Stingley will fall ot the Vikings.

This leads me to believe they’re going to try like hell to trade down.

But for the sake of this mock, I’m going to try to toe the line, taking a player I think they’d be ok taking at 12 if they can’t find a trade partner.

Originally, I thought they might take McDuffie in this spot. But 12 just feels too rich, and I didn’t want to pick a player that would require them to trade down.

On 4/19, in a Q&A on The Athletic, Arif Hasan said this about who the Vikings will target if Stingley and Gardner are gone at 12:

“I’m not so sure it’s set in stone that McDuffie doesn’t warrant that kind of selection but if the Vikings agree with you, they may opt for a receiver like mentioned previously. Maybe an Edge Rusher.”

Based on that quote, I got to thinking about who might be available who could warrant a pick at 12. After all, with so many teams looking to trade down, the best value may just be to stand pat and pick.

In Bucky Brooks’ final mock draft, he has the Vikings selecting Jameson Williams. He writes:

“Adding the Alabama standout would give the Vikings a dynamic three-receiver package; Williams could eventually replace Adam Thielen in a year or two, when his salary-cap number becomes unmanageable.”

And I thought this tweet from Matt Anderson on 4/23 was interesting …

“If Kwesi follows the same logic as his mentor Andrew Berry it might give us insight into how he feels about prospects Some of the youngest guys in this class the #Vikings could have interest in

Derek Stingley Jr- 20.9

Jameson Williams- 21.1

Trent McDuffie- 21.2

Kaiir Elam- 21”

It’s not crazy to assume Kwesi Adofo-Mensah brought some of Andrew Berry’s evaluation thresholds to Minnesota.

I’ll reiterate that this pick could go in any direction, but it’s not hard to imagine that an innovative front office would want to give a first-year offensive-minded head coach a boost as a welcome gift.

The Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

The Evidence:

At first, Houston seemed to be looking mostly at defensive players:

On 4/17, Lance Zierlein was asked on twitter, “Why isn’t Devin Lloyd to the Texans seen as a stronger possibility?”

His response: “It is.”

If we combine this with Evan Silva’s comment on Lloyd (under the Seahawks pick at 9), it feels plausible that this could be where he comes off the board.

But as the pre-draft process has worn on, Lloyd at 13 has begun to feel like a reach.

The Texans have also been linked to Kyle Hamilton, who I don’t have falling this far, and early on, the thirteenth pick was seen as a possible landing spot for Stingley. I have Houston taking him ten picks ago.

Could Houston be looking at an offensive player?

On 4/18, Jordan Schultz wrote:

“I could absolutely see the #Texans going WR at 13: Jameson Williams and Drake London both great options with immense skill sets.”

And on 4/22, Jeff Risdon said, “Keep an eye on Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis and Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson, as well as Ohio State WR Garret Wilson.”

With rumblings that Karlaftis could fall out of the first round entirely, I think he would be an unlikely choice, and I don’t see Jermaine Johnson being available. That leaves Wilson as an intriguing option.

On 4/25, in his final MMQB before the draft, Albert Breer wrote,

“And one other name I was given to watch here (and there’s a lot of guessing going on, when it comes to what Caserio’s thinking) was Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson. [This is actually a note on pick 3, but I think he could fall to 13].”

In his final mock, Peter King has the Texans trading up to 9 to take Garrett Wilson.

And on 4/25, Dane Brugler said, “I’ve heard whispers Garrett Wilson is in play at number 3.”

What if they didn’t have to take him at 3? It’s looking more and more like the Falcons will take Drake London, which leaves the Jets and the Commanders as the two most likely land mines ahead of Houston.

Perhaps Houston opts to trade up a few spots to secure Wilson’s services.

Or perhaps they’ll read this mock and stay put.

The Pick: Evan Neal, Tackle, Alabama

The Evidence:

Based on the rumors out there, Baltimore seems to covet two players at pick 14: Trevor Penning and Jordan Davis.

On 4/4, PFN stated, “I’m hearing the latest Penning comes off the board is pick No. 14 to the Baltimore Ravens.”

On 4/14, Anthony Amico posted a Daniel Jeremiah quote from February:

“Man, when I look at the options that they'll have, I don't know there's going to be that much difference. The one player, if he's there, I just would write it in as Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa, because when you watch him, this guy is just a Raven. The way he plays, the physicality, he's huge. He's 330 pounds. He's almost 6'7".”

Matt Miller confirms that on 4/19, the Ravens brought Penning in for a visit.

But what happens if Penning is off the board?

There has been a similar sentiment that the Ravens wouldn’t let a player like Jordan Davis slide past them.

Many have also noted Baltimore’s need for defensive help

On 4/18, Jamison Hensley wrote:

The Ravens have to select the best available pass-rusher or cornerback. Baltimore's biggest need is at outside linebacker because Tyus Bowser tore his Achilles in the season finale and Za'Darius Smith backed out of an agreement in free agency. There's also a void at cornerback where there is no depth outside of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, both of whom suffered season-ending injuries last season.

But it’s looking like the top two Corners, Hamilton, and the top five Edge Rushers will be gone by 14. If one of those players were to fall, then I would expect them to be a consideration. If not, what direction would Baltimore go?

Likely one of Trevor Penning or Jordan Davis.

There’s been more late buzz on Davis:

On 4/18, Neal Driscoll wrote, “Don’t be surprised if the Ravens pull the trigger on Jordan Davis. They are major fans of him.”

And on 4/25, Albert Breer said of the Ravens’ pick, “regardless of what happens there, I’d definitely keep an eye on Georgia giant Jordan Davis here.”

Here’s Todd McShay, on 4/25:

”I mentioned the buzz around Davis to Seattle at No. 9, but the intrigue doesn't stop there. Everyone I've talked to says they'd be shocked if the 340-pounder fell past Baltimore at No. 14.”

That’s all very compelling, a quote from Dane Brugler on the 4/25 NFL Rhodes Show gives me pause:

“I don’t think [Jordan Davis] goes to Baltimore.”

But I’m still slotting Davis in here, because I just don’t think he makes it any further down the board.

What if Neal is still on the board when it’s Baltimore’s turn to pick?

Sure, it’s unlikely, but depending on who you talk to, the medicals on Neal may be an actual concern.

It’s worth noting that the Ravens have met with Neal in the pre-draft process.

Doesn’t Baltimore feel like the perfect place for the slide on a top player like Neal to end?

The Ravens are notorious for letting great value fall to them, and their greatest need is at tackle. This feels like a match made in heaven.

The Pick: Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

The Evidence:

With two picks in fairly quick succession, the Eagles will be looking to fill multiple needs, starting with whichever player they feel is least likely to be around two picks later.

Here’s Matt Miller on 3/31, answering a question on which positions he has heard the Eagles are targeting in round 1: “WR, DT, LB— Maybe a DE is what I’ve heard.”

There have been some random rumors here and there, like:

• Matt Miller, on 4/15: “[Kyle] Hamilton is harder to peg because the Notre Dame safety's positional value and a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash time seem to have cooled his stock. I see the No. 15 and the Eagles as his floor.”

• Daniel Flick, on 4/14: “I don’t think Devin Lloyd gets past Philadelphia at 15.”

But all of those seem to be unlikely scenarios, and the buzz linking Philadelphia to those positions has been minimal.

Albert Breer sums up Philly’s draft position pretty well on 4/25:

This is right around where the run on the top tier of receivers (London, Wilson, Williams, Olave) could be coming to a close, so one could be in play with either of Philly’s picks. As is always the case with GM Howie Roseman’s finger on the trigger, the Eagles also could move up or down with either pick, with some in the league believing a short move up for a pass rusher would be in play for Philly if the right one fell.

Jordan Davis is also a possibility. But would the Eagles really pass on the player some argue is the top wide receiver in the draft if he were to fall to this point, which I can definitely see happening?

I’m not sure they would, and I may just have them getting the best of both worlds in this mock. More on that later.

Zeroing in on receivers

Before we land on Jameson Williams, we need to figure out whether the Eagles would take another first round receiver.

On 4/18, Albert Breer writes, “Would the Eagles take a receiver for the third year in a row? No one’s ruling it out.”

And Peter Schrager backs this up on the same day:

“Could Eagles go WR in the first round three straight years? The answer is absolutely. And depending on the way the 1st round plays out, they may be in a sweet spot at 15 to get one of the top 5 before a host of WR needy teams. Eagles have 15, 18,  and 8 other picks. WR at 15? Check.”

So what’s the buzz on Jameson Williams specifically?

On 4/25 Todd McShay wrote,

“Multiple execs I spoke with think Alabama wideout Jameson Williams is the Philadelphia Eagles' preference at No. 15. And if not Philly, then the New Orleans Saints could be his floor at No. 16.”

The following day, John McMullen tweeted,

“The names I hear most connected to the #Eagles in no particular order are: Jordan Davis (outside shot at 15), Chris Olave (good shot) Jameson Williams (declining by the day), Derek Stingley, Jr. (trade up) Jermaine Johnson (trade up), Devante Wyatt (18 at the earliest)”

It really comes down to who the Eagles have higher on their board between Jordan Davis and the available receivers, and which player they feel more confident will fall to them at pick 18. I think they would take Williams.

What if a player of Hamilton’s ilk were to fall?

Back on April 6th, Eliot Shorr-Parks tweeted:

“Players I think the #Eagles would make a significant trade (not like 2 spots) up for: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame”

In his final mock draft of the season, Daniel Jeremiah has Hamilton going to the Eagles in this slot. He writes,

“Hamilton is my No. 5 player in the 2022 draft class. This would be an absolute steal for Howie Roseman and the Eagles.”

I can see a scenario where Hamilton falls this far. Teams may be wary of drafting a safety with a sub-par 40 time in the top 14 picks.

While there hasn’t been a ton of buzz linking Hamilton to the Eagles, I think that’s mainly because everyone has assumed he won’t fall this far.

If he does, I think Howie Roseman will take him.

The Pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

The Evidence:

I wrote a segment of this pick for FantasyPros. You can check out that article here.

At the beginning of April, the Saints made an unconventional decision to trade assets with the Eagles and procure themselves a second first round pick in the 2022 draft.

I say ‘unconventional’ because most people in draft media see the 2022 draft as extremely deep in the day two range, and that’s where the Saints gave up most of their picks in the trade.

So why would they do it?

Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/5:

“Reached out to 6 GM’s to get their thoughts on the Saints motive for the trade with Eagles. Majority think it’s about Saints believing they are really close and two quality starters could put them in the playoffs right now. One mentioned Ridder as mid 1st possibility.”

One day earlier, Tony Pauline had written, “Saints want to come away with a QB and WR in round one. They just furthered the cause for coming away with both.”

And on 4/11, Jordan Schultz mentioned that his league sources said the Saints are high on Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett, and will consider trading up to secure one of them.

But talk of the Saints taking a QB has cooled quite a bit as of late, with many believing that the Saints want a second selection in the first round so they can take two immediate starters. 

With their moves in free agency, the Saints have shown that they feel they can win now. Do any of the QB options in this draft give them a better chance of success in 2022 than Jameis Winston? The league is skeptical.

Which is why most attention has been directed to the Wide Receiver position. Let’s explore the options:

The buzz on Olave goes all the way back to the combine. Ross Jackson posted a video of Ohio State WR Chris Olave talking about his relationship with Saints WR MIchael Thomas, his meeting with the Saints organization, and what it would be like to play in New Orleans.

Olave isn’t the only pass catcher linked to the Saints

On 4/19, Ryan McCrystal wrote:

“Two recent draft rumors that feel connected to me: 1) Saints want Jameson Williams 2) Jameson Williams is a top-10 pick. Starting to wonder if someone sees the Saints' interest, sees their draft capital and planted some rumors angling for a trade.”

The most recent buzz, which, which you can choose to interpret any way you like, is from Albert Breer, in his final MMQB before the draft: “

Well, I’ve heard both Pickett and Corral have fans in the building, but most I’ve talked to believe they’ll use their picks on a receiver (if one of the top four is still there).”

It really sounds like you can put your money one pick 16 or 19 being a receiver, unless the Saints decide to trade up. But even in a trade up scenario, they would likely be targeting a receiver or an offensive tackle.

Olave fits the bill here, both because of his perceived fit with the team, and the likelihood he will be available.

The Pick: Trent McDuffie, Corner, Washington

The Evidence:

The Chargers are in a really tough spot:

The players I’ve seen linked to them most (Trevor Penning, Jordan Davis, Chris Olave, Charles Cross, and Jameson Williams) are all likely to be gone by pick 17, so barring a trade up, I don’t see them landing one of those guys.

I’ll go over every option just in case

While we’re on the topic of trading up, on 4/4, PFN wrote that the Chargers could conceivably move up to the Vikings’ pick at 12 if Penning is still on the board.

If they can’t get Penning?

Mel Kiper mentioned he can see the Chargers taking Tyler Smith of Tulsa, but 17 feels a bit high.

Would the Chargers pivot to the defensive side of the ball if they aren’t able to secure one of the top four tackles?

On 3/10, Anthony Staggs wrote,

“Well I thought that edge was a need for the Chargers, they agreed. Their draft needs now look more like DT/WR/OT. Look for Penning, Olave/Burks/Wilson/London/Dotson, or Jordan Davis/Devonte Wyatt now.”

On 4/18, Paul Gutierrez chimes in on the defense:

“Yes, the Chargers have added to their pass rush ( Khalil Mack ) and pass defense ( J.C. Jackson ), but after having the 30th-ranked rush defense, they also need help down low and in the trenches. A run-stuffing and gap-eating defensive tackle would foot the bill here. But would Georgia's Jordan Davis still be there at No. 17 overall?”

Based on the teams picking above the Chargers, if feels like Davis will be gone (I know he isn’t yet in this mock, but I explain that in the next pick), and they will be faced with the choice of taking Devonte Wyatt if they want to go IDL.

If 17 feels too rich for Devonte Wyatt, who some see falling to the end of round one or even round two, the Chargers could look at Corner, where it’s been reported they like Derek Stingley (likely out of reach). So what about McDuffie?

Per Gilbert Manzano, “Washington CB Trent McDuffie said he had a good conversation with the #Chargers. “They feel like I could be a good fit there.” 

So that’s definitely a possibility. But for our purposes McDuffie is off the board.

Would the Chargers be tempted by the depth at the WR position in this draft?

As early as 3/2, Gavino Borquez wrote, “The Chargers are one of the few teams that Arkansas WR Treylon Burks mentioned he has met with.”

Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/8, tweeted:

“#Chargers, I’m told, would love to add speed to their receiving core in the draft. Two WRs I know they like are Christian Watson and Chris Olave.”

And Cole Topham from ChargersWire chimed in, “Ohio State WR Chris Olave could fit right in and increase the potency of the Chargers’ aerial attack.”

The Chargers will likely be faced with a decision

On the one hand, they could trade up to grab one of their top tackles, the receiver they like most, or Jordan Davis.

On the other hand, they could stay put and hope that one of their top ranked players falls through the gauntlet of teams with similar teams picking right above them.

Could a guard be in play?

There has been a lot of late steam connecting Zion Johnson to the Chargers.

Your first reaction might be that 17 feels a little early for Zion. But is it really?

On 4/21, Matt Lombardo tweeted, “I think Zion Johnson comes off the board a little earlier than a lot of people are thinking. - AFC Scout.”

In his 4/26 mock, Albert Breer has Zion Johnson going to the Chargers, writing:

“This is Chargers GM Tom Telesco landing one in the middle of the fairway— Penning might’ve fit the bigger need, but Johnson’s a really good player who’s safe and would pair well with Rashawn Slater as a Justin Herbert bodyguard for years to come.”

On 4/25, Daniel Wade of Locked on Chargers, tweeted:

My favorite draft options at pick 17 for the Chargers:

(Dream Scenarios)

1A) Charles Cross
1B) Jameson Williams 

2) Zion Johnson 
3) Chris Olave
4) Trent McDuffie 
5) Jordan Davis

Cross and Williams are likely to be gone, and having Zion above Olave, McDuffie and Davis is very telling.

Would the chargers really take Zion over McDuffie?

I don’t think so.

On 4/28, The Guilty As Charged Podcast tweeted:

“The most accurate mock drafters have the Chargers taking Kaiir Elam, Trent McDuffie, Kaiir Elam, Trevor Penning, Kenyon Green, and Devonte Wyatt in their final mocks. All over the map to say the least”

On the 26th, Tyler Schoon tweeted:

“The Chargers have met with Washington CB Trent McDuffie (old news) and have a defensive coaching connection there - John Timu was their defensive graduate assistant from 2019-2020.

Daniel Jeremiah thinks they go corner per his recent video.

Juuuussstt saying.”

I could see McDuffie going as hight as 12, or landing 15th with the Eagles, but I like his odds to land with the Chargers who have been connected with him all offseason.

The Pick: Kaiir Elam, Corner, Florida

Disclaimer:

I don’t think that if the Eagles draft a safety at 15, they will draft a corner at 18. While both are needs, I think they would go a different direction. But I gave the Eagles two players I feel confident could land with them, so that’s just how this plays out.

Let’s explore the Eagles’ situation again

We can start by Matt Miller’s 3/31 list of positions he believes the Eagles will be targeting in round one:

WR, DT, LB, and maybe a DE

Since the Eagles pick twice in fairly quick succession, many of the rumors that were applicable for pick 15 are applicable at 18.

But let’s dive deeper into some of the players we haven’t covered:

In Peter Schrager’s second mock draft, he gives the Eagles Devin Lloyd over Trent McDuffie, and there has been increasing chatter that Philadelphia could be interested in the LB. With that said, Howie Roseman has been notoriously averse to taking linebackers with premium picks, so I don’t see it happening.

On 3/21, Eliot Shorr-Parks mentioned that Drake London had met with the Eagles. Back in March. Barring a massive trade back, this also seems unlikely, although it’s worth noting again that Schrager has the Eagles taking London at 15 in his second mock.

If it’s WR at 15, it’s probably going to be defense at 18

On 4/5, @TheHonestNFL wrote:

“All signs seem to be pointing to the Eagles zeroing in on Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt at 15. Wouldn’t rule out a trade to move up a few spots on draft day if one goes earlier than expected. It’s a structural necessity both schematically and for long-term roster construction.”

And Tim McManus, on 4/18, wrote:

“I'd put defensive line and defensive back as the more likely positions they'll address early, with receiver in play on Day 2.”

On 4/25, when discussing the Eagles, Albert Breer said, “This is another team to watch on Davis.”

The Davis steam seems to be legit, as does the possibility of the Eagles taking Trent McDuffie, who I don’t see falling past the Chargers at 17.

Here’s Peter King on 4/25:

“Flip a coin here. Davis or Trent McDuffie. (And won’t WIP have a good laugh at my expense when the pick is neither guy.) But I’ll go with Davis because of his freakish athleticism at 335, his ability to impact the game all over the defensive front, and the prospect that he can succeed Fletcher Cox (32 in December) as the toughest guy to block on the Philadelphia defensive front.”

And on the same day, Dane Brugler, on the NFL Rhodes Show, said, “I don’t know if Howie Roseman would pass on Jordan Davis.”

On 4/21, Eliot Shorr-Parks tweeted, “The player I think most likely to end up on the #Eagles at the end of the first round is Georgia DT Jordan Davis.”

On the 26th, Shorr-Parks elaborates on the likelihood of Jordan Davis ending up with Philly:

“Because when trying to decide what the Eagles will do the safe bet is to always lean towards the lines. Davis plays a position the Eagles really value and is viewed as a generational athlete at the position.”

But Davis is long gone. Who else is on Philly’s radar?

Bo Wulf and Zach Berman, in an Athletic article on 4/25, list some of these prospects:

“Dax Hill, Michigan - Hill played all over the defense at Michigan. He can cover, blitz and play deep. Hill ran a 4.38- second 40-yard dash and swarms the ball. If the Eagles are looking for a modern-day safety to step in and start, Hill would fit.”

And here’s what they have to say on Devonte Wyatt:

“Wyatt has the talent and athleticism to eventually replace Fletcher Cox on the Eagle’s defensive line.”

We already picked a safety at 15, so Hill is out, and I’m reading a lot about Devonte Wyatt’s off-field issues causing him to fall a bit, so this seems way too high for him.

So who else?

On 4/27, Jordan Schultz tweeted:

“@GatorsFB CB Kaiir Elam has been a very hot name these past few days among teams I’ve spoken with. Rising prospect whose size, length and toughness are all widely coveted. He’s also a very good tackler who can support the run. Equally important? He ran a blazing 4.39 40.”

There has been other buzz suggesting he could even be the third corner taken in the draft, which would slot him somewhere in the mid-to-late teens.

Around the NFL tweeted this on the 27th:

“2022 NFL Draft Buzz: Kaiir Elam moving up draft boards, expected to be, at worst, fourth CB taken (per @TomPelissero)”

The Pick: Trevor Penning, Tackle, UNI

The Evidence:

First off, let’s explore the QB buzz

It makes sense to start by rehashing some of the intel I presented under pick 16:

Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/5:

“Reached out to 6 GM’s to get their thoughts on the Saints motive for the trade with Eagles. Majority think it’s about Saints believing they are really close and two quality starters could put them in the playoffs right now. One mentioned Ridder as mid 1st possibility.”

And on 4/4, Tony Pauline wrote, “Saints want to come away with a QB and WR in round one. They just furthered the cause for coming away with both.”

I’ll also mention again that on 4/11, Jordan Schultz mentioned that his league sources said the Saints are high on Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett, and will consider trading up to secure one of them.

On 4/26, Ian Rapoport mentions on NFL Live that the Saints “have done all the homework on all the top quarterbacks.”

From Mike Renner’s final mock draft, published on 4/27, which has Pickett going to the Saints at 16:

“Pickett is likely the most seamless fit into Pete Carmichael’s offense of any quarterback in the draft. The Saints have to stay cheap at quarterback to keep the current roster intact.”

It may be worth noting that as I write this on 4/27, @DKSportsbook currently has Kenny Pickett +200 to be selected by New Orleans.

When I wrote up pick 16, I mentioned that multiple members of the draft media have claimed that the Saints’ goal is to leave round 1 with two immediate, quality starters.

Most have interpreted this as a sign that the Saints are targeting a receiver and a tackle, and I think that if Penning and Olave were to magically land in the Saints’ lap, they might go in that direction instead of taking a QB.

But the way I see it, there’s a bit of a talent cliff after the Saints pick at 16. With multiple teams vying for players like Olave, Penning, Davis, McDuffie, and Williams, I could see Pickett being the top player on the Saints’ board when pick 19 rolls around.

A win-now move?

But why would the Saints take a QB if their goal is to win now?

Earlier in this article, I wrote:

With their moves in free agency, the Saints have shown that they feel they can win now. Do any of the QB options in this draft give them a better chance of success in 2022 than Jameis Winston? The league is skeptical.

The counterargument to this would be that Winston is only on a two year contract, and has a spotty track-record of success in the NFL.

While I don’t think it’s likely someone like Pickett would beat him out in year one, I certainly think it’s possible, and as much as we like to talk about Mickey Loomis’ cap philosophy, the Saints could work wonders with a QB on a rookie contract.

The options if it’s not a QB

One new name is that of Lewis Cine, who has been a late riser in the pre-draft process.

On 4/14, @askmetosay323 tweeted:

“I don’t have any inside info on this but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Lewis Cine ended up a Saint. He plays exactly like the type that Jeff Ireland loves in secondary/safeties.”

Cine has become an increasingly popular pick for New Orleans in recent mock drafts.

Some have pointed to pick 19 as a possible landing spot for Tulsa OT/G Tyler Smith, but it feels a little rich to me, even when we factor in the Saints’ need for an OT.

Penning the dream scenario

There has been a great deal of speculation that the Saints could be in on one of the top four tackle prospects.

Of the top four, Penning is the most likely to be available at pick 16, though it still feels like a long shot.

Perhaps they’d consider trading up for Penning, or even Cross, who they’ve reportedly been interested in.

On 4/25, Todd McShay wrote,

“Everyone knows the Saints are a likely landing spot for Northern Iowa offensive tackle Trevor Penning.”

And on April 24th, @elitetakes_ tweeted: “Multiple teams love Trevor Penning, no chance he makes it past the Saints at #16”

Do I think the Saints can get Penning at pick 19?

Probably not, but Mickey Loomis hasn’t been shy about trading up (heck, he’s already done it in this draft!), and could very well move up to get his guys.

If the Saints leave the first round with Trevor Penning and Chris Olave, I don’t think anyone will be complaining anymore about the assets they traded to get back into round 1.

The Pick: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

The Evidence:

I wrote a segment of this pick for FantasyPros. You can check out that article here.

I can confidently say the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to select a QB in the first round of the 2022 draft (so watch them take a linebacker or something now).

Among the potential QB-interested teams (Detroit, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tennessee), the only one most feel is a lock to take a QB is Pittsburgh.

Exploring the buzz

On 4/13, @uSTADIUM shared a rumor that the Steelers had laid the groundwork for a draft day trade up, potentially signaling their interest in one of the top QBs.

Here’s Jason La Canfora, on 4/15:

“‘I've seen the Steelers contingent at these pro days,’ one evaluator said. ‘This isn't some bluff. That's not how Kevin (GM Kevin Colbert) operates. I know they like some of these kids. I don't think they jump all the way up for Willis , but they're up to something.’ Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder might be the guy, and perhaps they move up slightly to do it … “

Per Ian Rapoport, the Steelers flew Desmond Ridder in for a visit on 4/6.

Other than that, there hasn’t been a ton of buzz on Ridder. It’s starting to feel like it’s a two-horse race between Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis.

Let’s start with Willis:

As early as 2/3, Thor Nystrom tweeted “An NFL source told me yesterday that the #Steelers clearly prefer Liberty QB Malik Willis to Pitt QB Kenny Pickett.”

That’s pretty compelling, but February third feels like centuries ago.

On 3/23, @jpafootball tweeted: “Update: #Steelers HC Mike Tomlin had dinner with QB Malik Willis last night. The Steelers have not been secretive about their interest in him.”

So is Willis the signal caller Tomlin and the Steelers brass covet? Most insiders and analysts are undecided.

Here’s Albert Breer on 4/25: 

“The Steelers have done a ton of work on Willis, and have an ideal situation for the Liberty quarterback—they could redshirt him behind Mitch Trubisky, or charge their spread-offense guru of a coordinator, Matt Canada, with building the right offense for him to play early on. Pittsburgh also, for what it’s worth, had Pickett down the hall at their facility the last five years (Pitt and the Steelers share a practice complex), and it’s no secret how well-respected Pickett is in the Pitt program.”

And ESPN’s Jordan Reid aren’t so sure either:

Reid, on 4/22, writes: 

“As the draft nears, the momentum that swung Kenny Pickett (Pitt) and Malik Willis (Liberty) up the board seems to be swinging back the other way. In conversations with league sources this week, one told me that Pickett to the Steelers at No. 20 is the only Round 1 quarterback on which he would bet.”

And from the same article, here’s Matt Miller: “It might just be a late draft-season smoke screen, but there is a lot of chatter about the Steelers not being sold on quarterbacks other than Pitt's Kenny Pickett in this class.”

Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/21 also mentioned he believes the Steelers could go Pickett over Willis.

We will close with a note from Albert Breer, in his final MMQB before the 2022 draft:

“Upset Special: Pickett over Malik Willis —and it’s a gut feeling more than anything else. How cool would it be if the Steelers, who passed on Pitt’s Dan Marino is 1983 when a successor to Terry Bradshaw was desperately needed (they picked Gabe Rivera) would 39 years later take Pitt’s Pickett to be the long-term sub for Ben Roethlisberger? Pretty cool to think Pickett, who for the entirety of his college career has walked into the door to the right of the Steelers/Pitt complex on the South side of the gritty city, might walk into the left door as a pro now.”

It did sound like the Steelers had their heart set on Kenny Pickett.

One counterpoint, which may be anecdotal, but I feel is worth mentioning, is that a lot of rumors swirl in the few days leading up to the draft. Some of them are very legit, some of them not so much. 

To me, this feels a lot like last year’s Mac Jones vs. Trey Lance to the Niners debate, with Pickett being Jones in this situation, and Lance being Willis. The Niners had the league convinced it was going to be Mac Jones, even though most logic suggested it would be Lance.

And this quote from Tony Pauline on 4/27 really solidified it for me:

"At this point, it would a bigger surprise if they passed on Malik Willis at 20 then if they took him. If he's there, he's the pick. They've wanted him all along. I think he'll be available at 20."

I got duped last year, and how does that saying go? “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice … “ 

I’ll probably regret it, but I’m going Willis.

The Pick: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

The Evidence:

I know you’re shaking your head right now, so I’ll cover the other options first before looping back around to Walker.

Trying to guess a Patriots first round draft pick might be a fool’s errand, but let’s give it a try.

In mid-April there was a bit of buzz on Trent McDuffie being a good fit in New England.

On 4/8, Evan Lazar wrote,

“We’ll see if it’s deception or real interest. But the #Patriots have now reportedly had ‘30’ visits with two first-round CBs in Andrew Booth Jr. and Trent McDuffie.”

About a week later, Albert Breer tweeted, “Trent McDuffie sounds to me like a perfect Patriot”

But in this scenario, McDuffie is long gone, and I expect him to be long gone on draft day as well.

Moving on …

On 4/14, Nick Guarisco wrote:

“Breer points to Trent McDuffie and Zion Johnson as possible Patriots. I’m in lockstep. On my FLG Podcast yesterday, I stated that McDuffie, Zion, and Devin Lloyd should be the 3 favorites for Pats pick at 21. High football IQ. Versatility. Position need. Kenyon Green another fit.”

Let’s talk about those other guys, starting with Devin Lloyd:

On 4/19, Evan Lazar tweeted:

“Talking linebackers on my #Patriots big board today. The closer we get to draft weekend, the more I like Devin Lloyd for the Pats if they want an impact player in the front seven on day one.”

And Adam H. Beasley writes:

"If you're looking for players that fit a prototype, versatile linebackers Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean are exactly the types of players that Belichick has coveted in years past."

I didn’t include Nakobe Dean in this list because there’s increasing talk of him falling out of round one altogether, although I wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick selected him.

Let’s keep the linebacker idea in mind. But first, let’s look at other options.

What about Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green?

Johnson been perhaps the player most mocked to the Patriots over the past couple months, and they have met with him. Not to mention the local angle makes sense, with him being a Boston College product.

Here’s a Twitter conversation on 4/26 between Matthew Freedman and and Johnny Rumford that I found interesting:

Rumford: Nice work here, from @MattFtheOracle [Selecting Kenyon Green for the Patriots in his mock draft]. On the Patriots specifically, I do think it’s likely Zion Johnson if he’s there, but wouldn’t rule out a trade down to take Kenyon Green. He’s got lots of experience along the OL, and NE covets flexibility.

Freedman: “Doing some pencil-and-paper mock scenarios, and I actually just slotted Kenyon to the Pats at No. 21 if Zion and Lloyd are both gone

Rumford: I think there’s a few scenarios that make sense for NE, but this is historically where they feel good about drafting OL. Green’s ability to play outside in a pinch might be interesting.

So it feels like guard is very much in play.

Mike Giardi, on 4/10, tweeted:

“Don't be surprised if the #Patriots go w/ a big body if they stay at #21. They've spent a lot of time with some of the top prospects, from  tackles Trevor Penning & Bernhard Raimann to interior players Zion Johnson & Kenyon Green. They have a hole at LG and future tackle issues.”

I do think that if Zion Johnson were available at 21, the Patriots would strongly consider him.

And Kenyon Green is definitely an option.

Per Ari Meirov, Green has officially met with the Patriots.

@TheJoeyMcNeely writes:

“Kenyon Green is such a Patriots-type of player. Immaculate off-field kid with tremendous tape against top-tier SEC talent. Versatile guy as well who played all over the line.”

With Green, it seems like there have been some medical concerns that may make pick 21 a little rich.

Daxton Hill: The Speed Candidate

On 3/28, Ryan Spagnoli writes:

“The more the AFC loads up with elite playmakers/speed, the more I like Michigan’s Daxton Hill to the #Patriots. 4.38 speed, centerfielder w box/slot ability and excels in man. Would be a chess piece in Bill Belichick’s defense. Just draft ATHLETES!”

And here’s Evan Lazar on Hill:

“With Bill Belichick continuing to load up on hybrid DBs, Michigan's Daxton Hill is a potential #Patriots round-one target: - Covers TEs & over the slot with CB-like man coverage skills- Excellent route recognition & range as a post-safety - Ball skills to make impact plays.”

On 4/27, Phil Perry writes, “Daxton Hill is the definition of a Prototypical Patriot... But would Bill Belichick really invest in another safety when there are four on the roster who look like they'll have real roles?”

Quay pasa?

In his 4/26 mock, Albert Breer has Kaiir Elam going to the Pats, and writes, “I liked the idea of Quay Walker here, too. But Elam would make a lot of sense.

While that’s not a full-on commitment to Quay Walker, it at least opens up to the possibility he could end up in New England.

Matthew Fairburn, on a 4/25 article he pushed to The Athletic, included Walker in the list of players he saw as good fits for the Patriots.

I know none of that seems overly compelling, but the buzz has been building fast for Walker. Usually, when that happens in the day or two leading up to the draft, it signifies the player is likely going to land in round one, and most agree his most likely fit is with New England.

I thought this 4/27 tweet from Matt Miller was interesting:

“Asked a buddy in the league for a surprise pick that could happen tomorrow night.

“Quay Walker the first linebacker and he doesn’t get past New England”

That would be a surprise, but he’s a top 25 player for me.

Also on 4/27, Eric Eager posted a screenshot of Walker’s odds to be a first round pick (-175), to which Benjamin Allbright responded, “Yeah the Walker one is the only part of my forthcoming mock I’m really upset about.”

If you feel this is a little high for Walker, remember that Bill Belichick has made more trades in the first round than just about any other NFL GM, and could possibly secure a player like walker after a trade down into the bottom 5 or so picks.

It all comes down to whether we think the Patriots would pull the trigger on a raw, ‘traitsy’ player like Walker. I’ll bite.

The Pick: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

The Evidence:

How would Packers fans feel if Brian Gutekunst were to go another year without drafting a receiver in the first round?

Well it’s possible, if not likely.

I cover receiver options in the write-up for pick 28, so if you’d like to read about receivers, jump down there for my explanation of why I don’t think the Green Bay will take one.

This was a really tough choice. To me, pick 28 is down to four primary options:

1. George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

2. Zion Johnson, G, Boston College

3. Logan Hall, DT, Houston

4. Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa

On the 4/21 episode of the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast, Justis Mosqueda discusses the options for Green Bay at 28.

Mosqueda zeroes in on the defensive side of the ball as an area of need, stating that the Packers need more depth on the interior or at edge rusher. He mentions a scenario where Green Bay could take Karlaftis, if he’s still available. But the more likely option at the time felt like Logan Hall, who has received a tremendous amount of late buzz.

Let’s talk about Logan Hall first

On 4/21, Ian Rapoport tweeted:

“#Houston DT Logan Hall, who most teams hope goes in round 2 but has a real chance to slide into round 1” Has had a top 30 visit with the Packers.”

And on 4/21, Brennen Rupp writes, “I really believe Logan Hall will be the pick at 28 for the Packers. A player that Joe Barry could move around in the front seven.”

Also on 4/21, Matthew Freedman tweeted: “there is a growing buzz that Hall will be selected by one of these teams at the end of round one.”

Peter Bukowski has also mentioned Travis Jones on numerous occasions as an option for Green Bay, but there hasn’t been as much buzz on Jones as there has for hall.

What about Tyler Smith and Zion Johnson?

The Packers have been linked to Zion Johnson, and I think they would strongly consider him here.

In his final mock on 4/27, Mike Renner sends Tyler Smith to the Packers, writing:

“The Packers like young, athletic offensive linemen, and Smith fits that bill. He led the nation with 21 big-time blocks in 2021. He also led the nation with 16 penalties.”

And on the 24th, Peter Bukowski wrote:

“Zion or Tyler Smith at 28 makes a lot of sense if the board breaks wonky. Day 1 iOL starters and Smith can be an OT eventually. They play with nasty too.”

And here’s Daire Carragher’s two cents:

“Here is my “what I think the Packers will do” mock draft. After the first two rounds it’s anyone’s guess. 

Tyler Smith is a Packer.”

But wouldn’t Tyler Smith be a reach?

Not necessarily. As I write this on 4/27, he has even odds to go in the first round. And he would be a fit with the Packers according to Brennen Rupp, who writes:

“The Tulsa offensive lineman is one of the youngest players in the 2022 draft. Smith just turned 21 years old. With his athletic profile, age, tackle-guard versatility and the fact that he plays a premium position, Smith could be the player Gutekunst selects with the 28th overall pick.”

So why Karlaftis?

Usually, when a player like Karlaftis, who has long been thought of as a round one prospect, is suddenly rumored to fall out of round one, it’s either because of injury concerns, or because a team wants him to fall.

Earlier this week, Matt Lombardo mentioned he thought the rumors of Karlaftis falling were overblown, suggesting he could easily still land in round one.

Part of what led me to this pick was Karlaftis’ seemingly perfect fit into the Packers’ parameters for who they typically like drafting.

Zach Kruse, on 4/9, tweeted: George Karlaftis has to be another top first-round target for Packers. Had 7.5 sacks and 17.0 tackles for loss as an 18-year-old true freshman in the Big Ten. Just turned 21 years old six days ago. RAS of 9.33. A little lighter than Rashan Gary but similar testing numbers.

Here’s a bonus pic of Karlaftis’ RAS card, since I know you Packers fans love paying attention to these:

And on 4/27, Benjamin Allbright picked Karlaftis for the Packers. Going over the mock on air, he says:

“The Packers like 4 wide receivers. One of the Ohio State guys, London, Burks and Pickens”

He goes on to say they also really like George Karlaftis, who many other teams do not like.

While there may be a bit more buzz on players like Tyler Smith and Logan Hall, this just feels like too good of a fit to ignore.

The Pick: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

The Evidence:

Will the Cardinals plug some of the more glaring holes on their roster, or opt for a more “fun” pick?

It could go either way.

Most agree that Offensive Line is the biggest need on the roster, but few agree on whether the team will address it in the first round.

On 4/18, Josh Weinfuss writes:

“Picking an offensive lineman is far from guaranteed for the Cardinals considering how many offensive options they lost in free agency. If the lineman is the best option by far there, then it could be a good choice. But Arizona needs playmakers, so a wide receiver would be the other move at No. 23. The Cardinals need to give quarterback Kyler Murray all of the targets if they want to get back to the playoffs and beat the Rams.”

Peter Schrager gave Zion Johnson to the Cardinals in his latest mock, and per Jess Root, they have hosted Kenyon Green for a visit, so it’s clear OL is on their radar. But the receiver chatter has been pretty consistent.

They could also look to fortify the defense after losing Chandler Jones to the Raiders.

Though George Karlaftis seems to have fallen down some boards as of late, he has been mocked to the Cardinals a ton, and on 4/11, Tom Pelissero confirmed that they had hosted him for a visit.

But Karlaftis has been rumored by some to be tumbling out of round 1, so I don’t really see it.

Will Steve Keim choose to do something more ‘fun,’ instead?

Sure, they need offensive linemen, but the Cardinals also lost Christian Kirk in the offseason, and Steve Keim has been known at times to eschew more wholesome picks in favor of a more exciting option.

And buzz has been building around wide receivers.

Here’s Albert Breer on 4/20:

“ … my radar is certainly up for Arizona to take a receiver at 23, and maybe even trade up to get one. I do think if Alabama’s Jameson Williams were to drop there (and I don’t think he will), the Cardinals wouldn’t stay on the clock for very long. Maybe they’ll even move up to get him—I’ve heard what I’ve heard on their interest … ”

Johnny Venerable confirms the Jameson Williams interest, claiming the Cardinals are “infatuated” and view him as a “superstar level prospect.”

But let’s be realistic: Unless the Cardinals trade up, they’re extremely unlikely to land Jameson Williams.

Enter Jahan Dotson, who Peter Schrager sent to the Cardinals in his mock draft back in early April.

On the evening of 4/26, I asked Cardinals Beat Reporter Johnny Venerable on Twitter if he believed the Cardinals would take Treylon Burks or Jahan Dotson over Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green.

His response: “Dotson yes, Burks no.”

In his mock draft on 4/26, Albert Breer has Jahan Dotson going to the Cardinals, and writes, “Dotson is the perfect speedy slot replacement for Christian Kirk.”

Dotson is popping up at the Cardinals pick in more and more industry mocks, and usually, when late steam like this builds, it’s a good sign that things are going in that direction.

The Pick: Zion Johnson, Guard, Boston College

The Evidence:

Going into the 2021 season, everyone was worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which ended up having a great year. Now, with La’el Collins and Amari Cooper gone, everyone is worried about the offense.

Could Dallas be targeting a receiver?

On 4/15, Matt Miller wrote:

“The Cowboys have been heavily linked to wide receivers throughout the pre-draft process and could be targeting a move up to land Garrett Wilson (Ohio State) or Jameson Williams (Alabama).”

But let’s be realistic. Unless the Jerry Jones decides to trade up ten or so spots, he’s not sniffing Williams or Wilson.

So which other pass-catchers could be on the board?

Back in early April, Matt Miller tweeted:

“Not sure if anyone else does this when watching prospects, but I always find myself envisioning where they would be a great fit. Treylon Burks = Cowboys is one of those that I think of every time I watch him play.”

As recently as 4/25, Dane Brugler when asked what he thinks the Cowboys will do at 24, responded: “WR Treylon Burks or a LG (Zion/Kenyon),” and continues, “I don’t think Linderbaum will be the pick.”

I could totally see Treylon Burks being the exact type of player Jerry Jones decides to snatch up. In fact, I strongly considered slotting him in here, but most of the trustworthy mocks I’m seeing have Burks sliding past Dallas, so I’ll steer clear.

How about a pick to bolster the defense?

Matt Owen writes:

“Last year I spent the whole off-season talking about Jevon Holland being a safety that Dallas should target (he graded out as PFF'S #4 safety this year).

This year's Jevon Holland is Daxton Hill.”

Ron Bohning discusses Daxton Hill’s fit with the Cowboys in this article

But the Cowboys resigned Jayron Kearse this offseason, so the real needs are elsewhere:

Getting younger on the offensive line

On 3/30, Dane Brugler wrote:

“The Cowboys are determined to get better on offense, making WR or OL the clear favorites here. The Cowboys met with Kenyon Green at the combine and will soon schedule a 30 visit with him at their facility.”

For a while, attention shifted to Tyler Smith, who has been somewhat of a late riser in the pre-draft process.

On 4/16, on twitter, Eric Galko predicted that Tyler Smith should end up in or just outside the top 20.

Matt Miller responded, “Dallas @ 24?,” to which Galko responded, “Think that’s his floor.”

That’s notable for a prospect who many didn’t see landing in round one. But Kiper Mocked Tyler Smith to Dallas as early as 3/23.

Since mid-April, however, there hasn’t been a ton of chatter on Tyler Smith. Most of the attention has been focused on two guys:

Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green

On 4/24, Tony Pauline wrote, “I’m told the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, and Tampa Bay Bucs are the teams to watch [for Zion Johnson].”

It’s been widely reported that the Cowboys love Zion Johnson, and I’m not sure if he falls to pick 24 (New England, Green Bay, and Arizona really like him). But if he’s available, I think he’ll be the pick, as he’s been widely mocked to be the first guard off the board.

Here’s the buzz on Kenyon Green, in case Zion is off the board

Here’s what Albert Breer wrote on 4/25:

“more likely would be the team sticking here, and taking either a traditional off-ball linebacker (Georgia’s Nakobe Dean?) or starting to inject some youth into their aging offensive line group. To that end, Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green is one player other teams have connected to Dallas.”

The following day, in his mock, Breer has Kenyon Green going to the Cowboys, and writes:

“The time has come for Dallas to start getting younger on the offensive line, and Green is a guy who can play at multiple spots along the line and eventually could grow into the kind of centerpiece Zack Martin has been on the interior.”

Finally, on the 4/25 episode of the Locked on Cowboys podcast, Marcus Mosher and Landon McCool say that if they had to guess who the Cowboys were taking “today,” they would say Kenyon Green.

They mention that there have been some concerns over his knee, suggesting he could slide, but they don’t think that would scare the Cowboys off too much.

Ultimately, it feels to me like this pick could be Johnson, Green, or Tyler Smith, who Matt Miller sent to Dallas in his final mock. I’m banking on Zion being available, but I’m 50-50 on it.

If hes not, I’d say the order would go Green, then Smith.

The Pick: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

The Evidence:

The Bills are stacked, which makes this pick a little tough to predict. Let’s get the luxury-pick stuff out of the way first:

Buffalo wouldn’t actually draft a running back in the first round … Or would they?

The rumors linking Breece Hall to the Bills are not just random whispers. There are legit, prominent analysts saying that it’s not only possible, but actually makes sense.

On 4/18, Alaina Getzenberg said it isn’t out of the question that the Bills could go RB in round 1.

On 4/20, Patrick Moran tweeted:

“I personally think some Bills fans are sleeping on what Jameson Crowder can bring to the WR table for Buffalo in 2022.  I still think Breece Hall at 25 is more likely than a WR, especially if Williams/Olave are gone.”

And to top it off, on 4/22, NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said if Iowa State RB Breece Hall is there when the Bills pick No. 25, he would take him.

But would Brandon Beane?

What will the Bills do if RB isn’t the choice?

In early March The Bills Guys tweeted, “The #Bills have done ‘extensive board work’ with both Chris Olave and Jahan Dotson at the combine this week.”

And on 4/7, Kyle Yates tweeted, “Per source, the Buffalo Bills are very interested in Skyy Moore (WR - Western Michigan).”

The buzz on Skyy moore seems to have cooled off in recent days, and there haven’t been as many links between the Bills and Treylon Burks.

Moving on to the defensive side of ball

The most consistent and realistic talk when it comes to how the Bills will allocate their first round pick has been centered around the secondary.

Let’s look at the corners they may be considering, first:

According to Mike Giardi, on 4/13,

“[Andrew] Booth could fall to the second round. Kyler Gordon would fit in well with the Bills and has solidified himself in the first round conversation.”

Booth has been linked to the Bills for most of the offseason, but it’s seeming more and more likely that he will fall into round 2 because of injury concerns. That makes the Bills’ consideration of Kyler Gordon and Kaiir Elam more plausible.

On 4/15, Jordan Reid wrote, With the corners expected to come off the board quickly, Elam -- who I have ranked No. 4 at the position -- could be selected as high as the Bills at No. 25.

Albert Breer, on 4/25, wrote:

“One spot that’s been pointed out pretty consistently as a need is corner. And I’d heard the Bills connected to Stingley at one point, with the thought of his being around fellow LSU Tiger Tre’Davious White, but I don’t think Stingley falls to a point where moving to get him would be realistic for the Bills. So someone like Washington’s Kyler Gordon might make sense here.”

In his 4/26 mock, Albert Breer has Kyler Gordon going to the Bills, and confirms what he wrote the day before: “with Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL injury and Levi Wallace now in Pittsburgh, Gordon would both be a value and fill a need here.”

Breer also mentions Kaiir Elam as a possible option for Buffalo.

Why Cine?

What if Buffalo opts for a safety instead of a corner?

In a 4/22 article on B/R, Maurice Moton writes:

“The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes the Bills may not just draft a safety, but they could pursue arguably the top prospect at the position in Kyle Hamilton:
’If the Bills believe the Poyer situation is going awry, I could see them making a big move up the board and into the top 10—or just outside of it to secure Hamilton's services. The spot I keep coming back to at the top of this range is the Giants at No. 7. It would get the Bills ahead of the Falcons (No. 8), Jets (No. 10) and Commanders (No. 11), all of whom could select Hamilton because of a need at the position and his rare qualities.’

But would the Bills take Cine this high?

On the 25th, Breer writes:

“I’ve said it a few times now, and I’ll say again that I think there’s a good chance Georgia’s Lewis Cine will go before Michigan’s Daxton Hill. Why? Cine’s got a ton of upside, and is a killer as a hitter. And Hill isn’t as versatile as some have made him out to be—he was really more just a nickel corner than a movable piece in Michigan’s defense. Which has been reflected in how his meetings with teams have gone.”

On 4/26, Joe Buscaglia writes: “Cine is on my short list of players I believe are in serious consideration at No. 25.”

Per James Layton, the Bills had Cine in for a top-30 visit.

Need more evidence?

Here’s Mike Giardi, on 4/19:

“Mentioned Lewis Cine (Seen) as a possibility for #Bills. Dude is a heat seeking missile. Doesn't always hit his target (or is too high) but is fearless. He's gotten a lot of buzz as we've gotten closer to draft day. Would be a nice fit…”

The further we get in draft season, the higher Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine have flown up draft boards and mock drafts. It’s a good bet the Bills will take one of them here.

Looping back to Breece Hall

From reading everything you just did, you’d probably think I should have picked Cine, right?

Well that’s the direction I thought I was headed (and it very well still could go that way) until more news started coming out on 4/27.

On 4/27, Matthew Freedman tweeted: Breece Hall might actually go No. 25 to the Bills,” and later mentions that more and more sharp mocks have him going at 25.

Those “sharp mocks” include Benjamin Allbright, Daniel Jeremiah, and Mike Renner.

There’s more:

In the Buffalo News, on 4/27, Jay Skurski writes:

“Increasingly, speculation suggests the Buffalo Bills might also go against the grain with their first-round draft pick. Iowa State running back Breece Hall has continually been linked as a possibility for the Bills at No. 25.”

Skurski adds this quote from Daniel Jeremiah:

“Breece Hall, the running back at Iowa State, to me, by far would be the best running back on their roster if he were to go there,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said last week on a national conference call. “I think you’ve got an offense that’s going to go out and get a bunch of leads with how explosive they are. I think getting someone who could finish the game, I think Breece Hall gives you that ability.”

To top it off, also on 4/27, Jeremy Fowler wrote: “Some believe (Breece Hall) could be a luxury pick for the Bills (No. 25), who have one of the league's most complete rosters and no immediate needs to fill with their first-round pick.”

I may regret switching this last minute. But when there’s smoke there’s fire.

Late notes

I almost switched this again!

Here’s why:

On a 4/27 video segment on ESPN, Jordan Reid said the bills would “run the card in” if Andrew Booth were available at pick 25.”

I trust Reid, but the buzz on Breece Hall has been too significant to ignore, so I’m sticking with him.

Still, it could go either way.

The Pick: Kenyon Green, Guard, Texas A&M

The Evidence:

The Titans were the number one seed in the AFC last year, and have a solid roster. As such, they could go a variety of different directions on Thursday.

Starting with the perceived #1 need

The most likely scenario according to most seems to be a pick along the offensive line, where Tennessee needs some help.

On 4/4, Tony Pauline wrote:

“The team to watch for [Tyler] Smith is Tennessee at pick No. 26. Smith would be an upgrade at right tackle over 2021 second round pick Dillon Radunz, a natural guard. As previously reported, Smith long established himself as the fifth tackle in this year’s class, and some feel he could start his career at offensive guard and then kick out to tackle.”

This could definitely be a destination for Tyler Smith, who was a big riser in early April. But I haven’t heard much on Smith since.

But there are other options along the line make a lot of sense:

On 4/21, Turron Davenport mentioned on the NFL Stock Exchange podcast that IOL should be high on Tennessee’s list. He identifies Kenyon Green as a great fit, because the Titans value versatility on the line.

Davenport also views Zion Johnson as an option. On 4/21, he tweeted:

“#Titans GM Jon Robinson on Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green: Both of those guys are big, strong players that have played multiple positions. They're strong, good movers. They're good prospects, good guys.”

It’s worth noting that Zion Johnson has a connection to Titans HC Mike Vrabel.

On 3/3, Buck Reising posted a video of Zion Johnson describing living with Tyler Vrabel for two years, and being around HC Mike Vrabel at Boston College.

From a Maurice Moton article on B/R:

“When asked about realistic options for the Tennessee Titans in the No. 26 spot, Paul Kuharsky, a well-respected team beat writer, named a couple of offensive linemen who could draw the club's interest over available wide receivers.
’Even if the receivers who fit them (never mind hype) do not dry up, I think Zion Johnson of Boston College or Kenyon Green of Texas A&M could be very much in play if they are available,’ Kuharsky wrote.”

For our purposes, the top two guards in the class are not available. But I think they would be strong considerations if still on the board.

Other possible positions include the defensive line, where according to Ian Rapoport, Logan Hall has been in recently for a visit, and wide receiver, where Turron Davenport could see Tennessee having interest in Skyy Moore and Jahan Dotson.

More on receivers shortly.

What about a quarterback?

While the Titans have been mentioned as a dark horse destination for a first round quarterback, there’s not enough buzz for me to commit to it.

Even so, it is tempting to link them to a QB. Tannehill has a big contract, and his play last year didn’t necessarily scream that he earned it.

On 4/23, Tony Pauline wrote, “Corral is building late momentum , and more and more teams feel he could end up in the top 32.”

Maurice Moton, on 4/25, wrote, “The Titans attended Pickett’s pro day, so if he’s on the board, Tennessee may decide to pick him up for the long-term future.”

And here’s Albert Breer on 4/25:

“And it’s at least worth mentioning that Mike Vrabel’s best friend is University of Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell, who’s championed his quarterback, Desmond Ridder, to every NFL person who’ll listen. Ridder’s fatal flaw, for some, is his inconsistent accuracy. But others believe with mechanical work he can get better there. And with Tannehill there, the Titans could give him a year or two to do that work.”

One of the reasons I didn’t put a QB in this slot is the sheer difficulty of deciding which QB prospect they would actually choose. In this mock, Pickett is gone, which would narrow it down to Ridder and Corral. Between those two, it feels like a coin flip, and that’s if Tennessee decides to pull the trigger at QB.

I’m going to give the Titans a player I’m 99% sure will actually be taken in round 1

Could a receiver be in play?

Is “because he might actually be there” enough of a reason?

Probably not, but it’s worth noting that many reputable mocks I’ve seen closer to draft day have Burks falling into this range. And here’s my read on the other possible destinations for Burks:

• The highest I could see him going is to the Chargers at 17. That just feels too high, and they have more pressing needs.

• I’m very skeptical that Green Bay, at picks 22 and 28 would pull the trigger on a player like Burks, and recent buzz has them taking two defensive players in round one and waiting until day two for a receiver.

• Per my brief exchange with Johnny Venerable (you can read it under pick 23), the Cardinals would likely take Jahan Dotson over Treylon Burks.

• Though the Cowboys have been rumored to like Burks, they likely have the top two guards ranked above him, and I have one falling to them.

Walker Bailey, on 4/22, tweeted: “Treylon Burks’ market spot is basically does he get taken by the Packers or fall to the Bills/Titans”

On the 4/26 episode of the Locked on Titans podcast, Tyler Rowland says that Treylon Burks could fit in immediately as a big, physical slot threat, but “there’s a good chance he won’t get there.”

Still, I come back to one thing:

Needs matter

The Titans need help along the offensive line, and Kenyon Green is the top prospect who I project to be available at this point.

Could they shock us and take Tyler Smith, who they have been linked to? Sure. But I’m going with the more highly-rated prospect.

The Pick: Lewis Cine, Safety, Georgia

The Evidence:

The Bucs have had a turbulent offseason. From one day to the next, their needs have shifted dramatically. Now, closer to the draft, it’s a bit easier to zero in.

Depending on whether Suh returns (or perhaps even if he does), the Bucs will need, at the very least, a future starter on the interior of the defensive line.

On 4/15, here’s what Greg Auman has to say in response to Dane Brugler’s selection of Devonte Wyatt in his latest mock:

“The longer the Bucs go without re-signing veteran Ndamukong Suh, the more this looks like an ideal pairing for them, getting a dose of much-needed youth and athleticism to the defensive front. In our beat writer mock draft two weeks ago, Wyatt was long gone at 27, landing at No. 20 to the Steelers, so Brugler is optimistic in projecting that he’ll still be around for the Bucs.”

It appears Logan Hall (a popular name here in these last 8 picks) could also be an option, as it was reported by Ian Rapoport that he has had a top 30 visit with the Bucs.

On the 4/21 episode of the NFL Stock Exchange podcast, John Ledyard went into detail on the Bucs’ draft needs and the direction he believes they will go on day one.

He mentioned they would consider both Wyatt and Hall, but could also be looking at safety, corner, and the interior of the offensive line. He identifies Lewis Cine and Zion Johnson as good fits, and brings up the possibility of tight end Trey McBride being the selection, although that would be pretty shocking.

The buzz that has really been heating up as of late has mostly been tied to the safety position.

On 4/20, Jenna Laine writes:

“The Bucs hosted Georgia safety and 2022 national championship defensive MVP Lewis Cine for a top-30 visit, per source. I asked GM Jason Licht if signing Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal precluded them from drafting a safety and he said, ‘No.’”

Almost a month earlier, on 3/29, Luke Easterling tweeted, “FWIW, I think the Bucs LOVE Lewis Cine. Would not shock me at all.”

That same day, Easterling wrote:

“Now, I would take Dax Hill (or Lewis Cine, or Jaquan Brisker) over Travis Jones at No. 27 all day long. Bucs need speed, explosiveness and pass-rushing ability, and Jones brings none of those things. Solid run-stopper, but not what the Bucs need, and not a 1st-round talent.”

And while we’re on the Daxton Hill train, here’s J.T. Olson on 3/5:

“The Bucs interviewing Daxton Hill is super interesting. Versatile safety who is great in the slot and was really good tackling and blitzing. Would love him with Todd Bowles.”

Ten days later, Olson added, “With Whitehead gone I would expect Daxton Hill to be very much in the mix for the #Bucs at 27.”

But Daxton Hill is off the board, so let’s focus on Cine.

On 4/27, Scott Reynolds wrote:

“While the Bucs signed veteran strong safety Keanu Neal this offseason, it was for one year at a reasonable $1.87 million. Drafting Cine would give Tampa Bay a long-term answer at strong safety. And he would be on a cheap, rookie contract for four years with a fifth-year option.”

Reynolds added,

“Bowles was also present at the Georgia pro day to see Cine in person. Cine is a bright, serious, no-nonsense football player. He’s a striker and he’s fast. Don’t be surprised if Cine is the Bucs’ first-round pick.”

Hill and Cine have been mega-hyped in the few days leading to the draft, so there’s a chance they’re both gone by pick 27. But if Cine is available, I bet the Bucs pull the trigger.

The Pick: Daxton Hill, Safety, Michigan

The Evidence:

The options at WR

While to Packers have been linked to multiple receivers in this class, they may feel that they can get better value in round 2, and load up on quality players at other positions in round 1.

The way the board seems to be falling, the top-tier receivers are likely to be gone by pick 22, with the possible exception of Treylon Burks, who, per Doug Kyed, has met with the Packers.

Jordan Schultz tweeted:

“#Packers would love to find a true WR1 with one of their two 1st-rd picks (22 and 28) -- and finally draft a WR in the 1st-rd during the Aaron Rodgers era. 

Keep an eye on Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson -- all terrific players with immense skill sets.”

To which Peter Bukowski replied:

“I’m once again asking everyone to stop mocking bad athletes, smalls and olds to the Packers in the first round. No Dotson, Green, Wyatt, Lloyd etc. They’re just not going to pick those guys.”

The Packers have been linked to Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Christian Watson, but those feel more like second round options, though each of them have received some first round buzz.

That really only leaves Treylon Burks as the option who fits the Packers’ ideal size, athletic, and age profile.

On 4/21, Mel Kiper wrote:

“Speaking of Green Bay, I really think that's the team to watch here, moving up for a wide receiver. Think about it: The Packers need a playmaker who could make an early impact for Aaron Rodgers . If they move into the top 10, they could get the top wideout in the class. Maybe it's Wilson or London , or maybe they feel good about the medical reports for Williams, who tore his ACL in January but still could be the No. 1 receiver off the board.”

And here’s Albert Breer on 4/25:

“I think it could happen [Taking a receiver]—but I wouldn’t mark it down quite yet. I have heard them linked to Arkansas WR Treylon Burks, a bigger receiver who, like Deebo Samuel, you need to have a plan for, and could be there at 28. And if one of the top four falls to them, obviously, that’d be a consideration at 22.”

On Locked on Packers, Peter Bukowski has gone into detail on Treylon Burks’ fit in Green Bay, going so far as to say he would be the ideal pick at 22. In a beat-writer mock draft on the NFL Stock Exchange podcast earlier this month, he picked Burks at 22 for the Packers.

Justis Mosqueda, however, who appeared on the same podcast as a mock drafter for pick 28, disagreed with the Burks fit, and argued against taking him.

What if they don’t go receiver?

I think if he’s still on the board, Zion Johnson would be a likely pick here. I just don’t see him getting past the Pats at 21.

From Tony Pauline, on 4/24: “I’m told the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, and Tampa Bay Bucs are the teams to watch [for Zion Johnson].”

We’ll talk more about the offensive line when we cover pick 28, as I think Zion Johnson is the only lineman the Packers would consider at 22.

On 4/15, Brennen Rupp published this article with the caption:

“A year ago Brian Gutekunst dipped his toes into the Georgia secondary by drafting Eric Stokes in the 1st RD. Check out why Lewis Cine could have Gutekunst coming back to Athens in 2022.”

On 4/20, The Packers Wire wrote an article on UConn DL Travis Jones’ fit with the Packers.

The same day, David Kisamfu shared a Forbes article with the caption: “Could Michigan Safety Daxton Hill Be Too Talented For The Green Bay Packers To Pass Up?”

Both Hill and Cine have featured in numerous recent mock drafts for the Packers.

Bukowski has stated numerous times that safety has been an underrated need for Green Bay in the pre-draft process, with the potential need to replace Adrian Amos down the road, and Hill or Cine could be high on Gutekunst’s board.

On 4/23, Kyle Fellow provides his list of players he believes the Packers will consider. Both Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine are on it.

On 4/26, Andy Herman, who has been very accurate at pinpointing Packers picks in the past, shared his list of 12 players he can see the Packers taking with their top two picks. Hill and Cine are both on it.

Sensing a theme?

The question becomes, which safety is Brian Gutekunst more likely to choose?

Here’s Dalton Miller, on 4/24:

“Feels like Daxton Hill should be a Packer. Jaire, Savage, and Amos all in the final year of their deals. Hill could be a chess piece year 1 and then step into a spot vacated in 2023.”

And Marques Eversoll, on 4/26, tweeted:

Sorry to the "consensus."

If I'm picking who I think the #Packers would pick -- and I am -- then we're going Daxton Hill at #22.

I don’t want to discount Lewis Cine, who has also received a ton of buzz in connection to the Packers, but Daxton Hill just feels like the better fit.

Some late notes

I strongly considered slotting Tyler Smith in here, or even Logan Hall. I think either of them are just as likely to be the pick as Hill.

Ultimately, I opted for the prospect who feels the most like a first round lock.

The Pick: Kyler Gordon, Corner, Washington

The Evidence:

The Chiefs need to trade up for a top WR, right?

It’s definitely a possibility—one that could screw up the way this entire draft falls. But that’s just how it goes sometimes, right?

On 4/18, Adam Teicher writes:

“A trade does seem more likely than not. The Chiefs also have two picks in each of the second, third and fourth rounds. They can easily move for a player or players they like and Veach likes to deal. He traded the Chiefs' first-round pick in two of the past three years and has traded up in the second round a couple of times since his first draft as GM in 2018.”

Who would Veach be targeting in a trade up scenario?

On 4/14, Josh Norris shared that Alabama WR Jameson Williams was visiting the Chiefs.

And here’s a quote from Daniel Jeremiah from The Ringer Podcast on 4/15:

“@ryenarussillo was put on this earth to eat weights, shoot jumpers, and do podcasts. Jameson Williams was put on this earth to play in the Chiefs' offense.””

Chad Forbes, on 4/19, writes:

“Entire league knows #Chiefs are figuring out how high they must trade up for 1 of Jameson Williams or Chris Olave.”

One more, in case you weren’t convinced. This time, it’s Albert Breer, on 4/25:

“Jameson Williams would be the obvious guy who’d even have a chance to be a one-for-one exchange in that regard, and I just don’t know that the Chiefs will take that big a swing.”

But KC may decide not to move up unless Williams and Olave slide a bit, and the stock of both players seems to be going nowhere but up in the week leading up to the draft.

Other receivers on Kansas City’s radar

Is there anyone beyond the top 5-6 at the position who the Chiefs would actually take at 29 or 30?

Here’s Jordan Schultz, on 3/23:

“The #Chiefs, I’m told, are highly intrigued by Skyy Moore, the Western Michigan standout who had a tremendous combine performance.”

The following day, Schultz added:

“Even after acquiring MVS, make no mistake: #Chiefs not done replenishing WR room - via trade, FA or draft. I mentioned they’re excitement about Skyy Moore yesterday… “

And here’s one more nugget from Jordan Schultz:

“I’m told Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burkes, David Bell and Christian Watson all have big fans inside the KC building.”

I’m just not buying it with these other guys. First off, Dotson and Burks are already off the board. This seems like a mega-reach for David Bell, and Christian Watson and George Pickens (who the Chiefs have also been linked to) seem destined for the early second round.

Will KC skip WR in the first?

If they can’t trade up for one of the top guys, it’s looking more and more like it.

So who else could they be looking at?

Kansas City has a pretty major need at corner.

Matt Miller, on 4/19, tweeted: “Chiefs are doing a lot of work on Boye Mafe and Kyler Gordon.”

More on Mafe later. Let’s focus on Gordon for now.

On 4/25, Tony Pauline wrote: “Sources close to the Chiefs tell me Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon is being seriously considered with one of those two picks.”

On the 4/26 episode of the Locked on Chiefs podcast, Chris Clark and Ryan Tracy discuss the possibility of Kyler Gordon, touching on the fact that his arm length is ideal for the type of corner Brett Veach usually looks for.

A note on picks later in the draft

Teams picking this late in the draft are tied to far more players than teams picking early, because the predictability of the draft goes down as the first round wears on.

On top of that, many evaluators have called this the toughest draft they have ever had to predict. Many teams have under 20 first round grades, which means that at this point, they, like me, will be trying to pick based on who they believe can still fall to them in the second round.

Kyler Gordon is considered a borderline lock to be a first round pick, and though there’s somewhat limited buzz connecting him to the Chiefs, many agree it is a good fit, and it just makes sense to place him here.

More on the Chiefs below

The Pick: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

The Evidence:

Before we begin:

I do think that if Kansas City were to draft a receiver, it would most likely be in a trade up. If they do stay put at 29 and 30, I can see them taking a defensive player with both picks (similar to what I have the Packers doing).

I think one of those defensive players would be an edge rusher, but I’m undecided on whether the Chiefs would prefer Mafe, Ebiketie, or Ojabo, so I decided to leave all of them out.

Instead, I slotted Treylon Burks here, whom I couldn’t find a home for, and could be of interest to Kansas City.

With that out of the way, we can focus on the options KC will have

Since we focused mostly on receivers with the 29th selection, let’s shift our focus to other players the Chiefs might be targeting.

Lately, I’ve seen one name more than others:

On 4/19, @RookieAnalyst tweeted:

“Chiefs don't need to rely on an aging Ingram and regressing Clark on pass rush anymore. Mafe may be the steal of the first round, and provides the Chiefs with another piece for their reloading process.”

Let’s revisit the 4/19 tweet posted by Matt Miller: “Chiefs are doing a lot of work on Boye Mafe and Kyler Gordon [picked above].”

And here’s Matt Lombardo on the 21st, sharing what he’s heard from an anonymous scout:

“Boye Mafe’s probably the biggest sleeper to watch right now. He’s just so explosive and violent at the point of attack.”

On 4/25, Tony Pauline wrote:

“the Kansas City Chiefs fondness for Boye Mafe started long before everyone began mocking him to KC.”

And on 4/27, in his final mock, Mike Renner has the Chiefs taking Mafe. He writes:

“Mafe is an ascending edge rusher with an elite physical profile. The Chiefs may very well buy into the show he put on at the Senior Bowl, where he earned a 92.6 pass-rushing grade over the week.”

Is Mafe the only edge rusher KC likes?

I haven’t heard much linking the Chiefs to George Karlaftis, who has been tumbling in mocks. I can’t tell if that’s because he actually destined to fall into day two, or because he was never considered a realistic target.

If it’s not Mafe, I would keep a close eye on two guys:

The first is Arnold Ebiketie, who has gotten some late first round buzz and has also been linked to the Chiefs (just not quite as much as Mafe).

The second is David Ojabo, who will likely need a redshirt year due to injury. But the Chiefs may be okay with that. Mahomes is going to be around for a while. Why not give the team the best opportunity to succeed into the distant future by taking a top 15 talent?

What about the other options for KC?

I could see the Chiefs taking a chance on Andrew Booth, who they are rumored to like, if the medicals check out and they decide they don’t love Kyler Gordon.

At safety, both Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine figure to be plug and play options, and have been mocked to KC by multiple prominent analysts.

On 3/9, Charles Goldman wrote this article with the caption: “Is Georgia's Lewis Cine the safety the #Chiefs need in the first round?”

In this scenario, both are long gone, and I do feel strongly about the fact that things will indeed play out that way.

It’s probably an edge rusher, but Burks could be too tempting to pass up

Ultimately, I believe Treylon Burks is a first round prospect and is destined to be a first round pick.

It’s also worth noting that a number of sharp mocks, including Josh Norris’ final mock, have Burks landing ending up with Kansas City.

Do I think he ends up with KC? Not necessarily. Can I see it? Sure.

The Pick: Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

The Evidence:

At least the colors match, right?

Here’s the deal

This late in the draft, things get fairly difficult, especially in a year where many teams’ boards figure to be wildly different.

It’s been common to mock Tyler Linderbaum to Cincy, and that has some merit:

On 4/21, @CincyJungle reported that picking Linderbaum is “still in the table” for the Bengals at 31.

But Linderbaum has been pegged as a player who could fall to round two.

Hayden Winks, on 4/20, writes:

“Tyler Linderbaum is a good prospect, but he's not gunna fit a lot of offenses because of his size. Only 2-of-14 mock drafts I trust have him going before his 27.5 over/under. Everyone who mocks him Round 1 has him going to the Bengals. Avoid group think. It's over time.”

Besides, the Bengals invested heavily in their offensive line in free agency, so it may be time to look elsewhere on the roster:

On 4/15, Jordan Schultz tweeted:

“When it comes to the #Bengals, I’m told corner remains a key priority entering the draft. Prospects they like include Andrew Booth Jr., Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, Tariq Woolen and Jalen Pitre.”

It’s also worth nothing that Kyler Gordon was invited to attend the draft in person, which is usually a sign that the player is likely to be picked in the first round. He has been mocked to the Bengals by a number of analysts.

Logan hall has also been linked to Cincy

On 4/14, Joe Goodberry tweeted, “The Bengals will draft Logan Hall, DL, Houston.”

He has since changed that prediction. More on that in a moment.

Hall has had a top 30 visit with the Bengals, per Ian Rapoport.

And here’s an interesting nugget from Paul Dehner, Jr. on 4/15:

With Houston DL Logan Hall visiting today, had a few thoughts on his fit with the #Bengals. 

1. His versatility will make Lou Anarumo blush. 

2. Really hits HR as the 3T on passing downs. You could have a package with Hendrickson-Hubbard/Hill-Hall-Ossai and let them eat.

While hall is a definite possibility, the late buzz has mostly been focused around the Bengals taking a corner.

Zeroing in on a corner

Which corners, a) fall within the Bengals’ draft range, and b) would fit well with the team?

The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. and Jay Morrison focused on the Bengals secondary in a five-part draft series, and they drew a connection to Andrew Booth Jr.:

"His versatility, tenacity, eye-popping playmaking and box-checking athleticism make him an ideal fit for Anarumo. Plus, we know the Bengals have a ton of trust in their sources at Clemson, having gone to that school for a second-round selection in each of the past two years. If Booth checked out as a worker and a ball-loving, process-enjoying competitor, then he connects all the dots, if he's available." 

Here’s what Albert Breer has to say:

“The Bengals have done their homework on corners, and a number of the big-school types Cincinnati likes could be available in this range, with Gordon, Florida’s Kaiir Elam and Clemson’s Andrew Booth being potential options.”

And speaking of Kaiir Elam …

On 4/27, in his final mock, presented on the Locked on Bengals podcast, Joe Goodberry, who has been notoriously accurate in predicting past Bengals first round picks, has the Bengals taking Kaiir Elam.

He says: “Why he fits: The average corner they draft is about 5’11” and a half … they want productive guys that are decent athletes. The speed doesn’t matter as much.”

Goodberry also mentions Kyler Gordon, but “Kaiir Elam in terms of agility drills, nails the average draft pick that they spend.”

At this point in the draft, I’m really trust someone like Joe Goodberry, who has a deep knowledge of the team’s needs, tendencies, and athletic thresholds.

A late note

As I revisit this right before publishing on the morning of 4/28, it’s worth noting that I think Elam could go a lot higher than this slot, as his buzz has been on fire in the couple days before the draft.

For that reason, I have Elam going to the Eagles, and Booth landing with the Bengals.

My confidence level? Not bad, actually.

I do think Booth could end up with the Bills, or perhaps the Chiefs, but if he doesn’t, and his sports hernia issue isn’t too much of a concern, I can see his floor being the Bengals at 31.

The only wrench could be Logan Hall, who seems destined for the first round, and has been linked to the Bengals. Still, I’m leaning Booth.

The Pick: Logan Hall, Defensive Tackle,

The Evidence:

This may be the most difficult pick in the entire draft to predict. Why?

Because I don’t actually think Detroit picks here. If they do, they could take a QB, but who knows.

Jordan Reid, on 4/22, writes:

“I've been repeatedly told to pay close attention to the Lions with the No. 32 pick next week. That spot has been circled as a trade-up spot for teams looking to take a swing on a quarterback who falls to the back end of the first round.

The name I've been told to keep an eye on is Sam Howell (North Carolina). The league is a bit higher on Howell than the media.”

On 4/22, Chris Burke mentions that Detroit could target a safety like Daxton Hill, Lewis Cine, or Jaquan Brisker in this spot. With the amount of teams in the second half of the draft we’ve linked to Hill and Cine, it’s likely both are gone. If so, Brisker could be an option.

But this may be a bit high for him.

Alternatively, the Lions could turn their attention to the Linebacker position, where they have hosted Quay Walker for a visit (per Jeff Risdon, on 4/19), and have been linked to Nakobe Dean, who is expected to fall this far, or perhaps out of round one entirely. In this mock, Devin Lloyd is also available, and could be an intriguing option.

On 4/20, Woodward Sports tweeted, “Could Nakobe Dean fall to the Detroit Lions at 32?”

And on 4/20, Russell Brown said, “The best blitzing linebacker in the draft is Nakobe Dean and keep in mind the only team he's visited with this entire process is Detroit.”

And Lloyd is available, but with multiple LB options still on the board, they could grab another player they like and still take a backer they like at 34.

Which QB is most likely to be third off the board?

I think Detroit could take a swing on a QB here to reap the benefits of a fifth year option, or trade out to a QB-needy team.

But the question becomes: Which QB would it be?

Above, Bucky Brooks talks about Detroit’s interest in Sam Howell, and while there have been multiple reports that Detroit likes Howell. I’m going to go with one of the two QBs most likely to go in round one.

Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral?

In Benjamin Allbright’s final mock, he has Corral going to Detroit at 32.

Corral has also been linked to the Titans, Seahawks, Falcons, and Saints, so I like the possibility of him landing in round 1.

In his mailbag on 4/27, Breer mentions that if the Seahawks were to take a QB, it would likely be Corral, not Ridder.

I also think that while the Corral buzz has been heating up, the Ridder buzz has been cooling:

The most bullish thing I’ve read on Ridder in round one is from Matt Miller, nearly a month ago:

“Based on what I’m hearing—I would not be surprised if Desmond Ridder is a top 20 pick.”

Since then? Not much.

The bottom line is that this pick could truly go in any direction. I could see only two QBs going in round one, but I do think a third one sneaks in, and Corral is my best guess.

Will Logan Hall go in the first round?

I keep coming back to the uncertainty at QB, and the fact that while I believe three could go in round one, I just can’t pinpoint who it will be.

That brings me to Logan Hall, who has gotten a ton of buzz as a potential first rounder, and I think is a better bet to go in the first 32 picks than any QB I could throw a dart at.

Do I think the Lions would take him here? Probably not, but who knows!

They have met with him, which means they’ve shown a little interest, and he has been mocked to Detroit at 32 and 34 in a good number of recent mock drafts.

I’m going with it.

That’s a wrap on 2022: Please Share, and Subscribe to get in the loop early for 2023!