Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
The Rumor Mill Mock Draft is a 1st round NFL mock draft I’ve put together each year since 2019. I assemble the draft using rumors I have aggregated in the lead-up to the draft from scouts, media insiders, beat writers, analysts, etc.
I’ll answer some common questions below:
1. Why did you create The Rumor Mill Mock Draft?
Easy. Two reasons:
People want to know who their team is drafting. I thought it would make sense to funnel this desire into something good, so I kindly suggest that people who enjoy the content donate whatever they can to the National Down Syndrome Society or a charitable organization of their choice. I put a lot of hours into this project every year and I can’t think of a better reward. Note: Donations are not required for the consumption of the content. Just very appreciated!
I’m one of those ^^^ people who wants to know who their team is drafting. And what better way to do that than to obsessively gather every morsel of information on the topic?
2. Is the Rumor Mill Mock Draft even accurate?
Yes!
Based on The Huddle Report’s scoring system, the 2021 Rumor Mill Mock would have scored a 46, which would have been good for 17th place in the competition (out of 133 submissions).
I have worked twice as hard this year to collect even more information, and am hoping to improve on that number in 2022.
3. How does the mock draft differ from one your average fan or draft scout/analyst would put together?
I am neither a scout nor an analyst. I want to strongly emphasize that I have no league connections passing me intel. I have, however, developed a very effective method for collecting and aggregating draft rumors over the course of the months leading up to the draft.
In addition to the reasons stated under question 1, I started doing this, in part, when I realized there was no single, comprehensive resource online for draft “intel.”
I followed scouts and NFL insiders, many of whom have their “What we’re hearing” columns, but the few sites that list “Draft Rumors” don’t have very comprehensive or reliable lists.
Insiders and analysts have their own sources, and often rely on information gathered from said sources when putting together their final mock drafts. But it’s tough to find a mock draft out there that makes picks based on the combined wealth of intel in the insider/analyst/beat writer community.
Which leads me to the next question:
4. Where do you find the draft rumors and how do you “aggregate” them?
I’ve found that the only data collection method that allows me to differentiate the Rumor Mill Mock from others is the consumption of as much draft content as possible.
This includes digging into tweet and reply history of numerous trusted scouts/analysts/beat writers (daily), listening religiously to various podcasts (daily), scouring the internet for all relevant articles (daily), and watching YouTube segments from trusted scouts (daily).
Yes, my eyes are tired. Yes, I need a nap. But it’s also kinda fun.
5. But how do you differentiate a “good” rumor from a “bad” one?
Step one is to make sure the source of the rumor is reliable. I will not record a “draft rumor” unless it comes from an active scout, draft analyst, NFL insider, college or NFL coach or assistant coach, or beat writer.
Step two is to be able to differentiate conjecture and analysis from real, actionable information. The hierarchy of information when making a pick for the Rumor Mill Mock is as follows:
Real, sourced information (ie. NFL GMs, NFL scouts, Coaches)
Analysis from a legitimate NFL source based on team fits, top 30 visits, etc.
My own effort to fill in the blanks based on the above information, team visits, team draft history, team needs and fit, positional value, etc.
For example, Albert Breer saying “I think [blank player] would be a great fit on [blank team],” would not be considered a valuable rumor. But when the time comes to assemble the draft, it could help me choose between two players I consider equally likely to land with a specific team.
6. Are you crediting the sources?
Absolutely.
I list the specific source of each piece of information when making a pick for the Rumor Mill Draft, making sure the original source is fully credited.
All the information I use is out there in the open, meaning I am not sharing “insider information” without the permission of the source.
Here’s last year’s Rumor Mill Mock Draft Twitter thread as an example.
Questions? Concerns?
Please don’t hesitate to let me know.