Rumor Mill NFL Draft Betting Picks: 4/18
Props and lines I like, 10 days out from the 2022 NFL Draft, based on rumors I've collected thus far
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
This is the first of a series of posts I’ll be publishing that highlight the best odds I’m finding pertaining to the upcoming NFL Draft.
Note that like everything I publish on this channel, the information provided is not opinion-based, but rather based on rumors that I have collected in the lead-up to the draft. For more info on how I collect these rumors, please check out my first article, What is the Rumor Mill Mock Draft?
Why bet on the draft?
This may be more anecdotal than not, but I’ve found that each year, the draft presents a unique opportunity to cash in on good lines before Vegas catches up.
The nature of the draft is such that rumors, tips, and hints come in sporadically, so if you’re able to find a good rumor, you can often capitalize on it before the oddsmakers adjust the lines.
A few examples of big wins in previous years:
2019
Cashed in on a draft-day rumor that Darnell Savage could end up being the first DB taken (He was).
2020
Plenty of rumors leading up to the draft that the Giants loved Andrew Thomas and could be the first OT on the board. Vegas lines never adjusted. Easy win.
Rumors heated up around 7-10 days before the draft that Clyde Edwards Helaire could be the first RB taken. Lines never really adjusted, which made this one an easy win as well.
2021
When the Niners traded up in the first round, there was a ton of immediate speculation that they would take Fields, which made Mac Jones and Trey Lance at much longer odds feel like huge opportunities when the rumors started to trickle in.
I’d like to try and replicate those types of wins this year, which is why most of the bets will have longer odds.
Before we begin: Please bet responsibly. I am merely sharing what I am doing and not providing financial advice.
Let’s check out today’s picks!
Bets I like: 4/18/22
Most of these are BIG swings, but they pay out accordingly.
1. No. 1 Overall Pick: Ikem Ekwonu
+1200 @ Bovada; +1350 @MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 3/10
The Evidence: Today on GMFB, Peter Schrager said that though it’s unlikely, there’s a chance the Jags could take Ekwonu with the first selection. His reasoning for this is that no one seems to have a clear picture of what the Jags are going to do. The favorite is still Aidan Hutchinson, with Travon Walker looming, but Trent Baalke could easily go a different direction.
2. No. 1 Overall Pick: Evan Neal
+1500 @ Bovada; +1800 @MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 2/10
The Evidence: Last week, Albert Breer wrote that the Jags selection at #1 was not at all set in stone (similar to what we’re hearing from Schrager above). Some of his sources believe that Baalke will take an OT. Though Schrager mentioned Ickey Ekwonu, who knows which of the top two OTs Baalke would prefer, were he decide to choose one instead of a top edge rusher.
3. First Drafted QB: Desmond Ridder
+1100 @ MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 4/10
The Evidence: Last week, it was echoed by multiple sources that Desmond Ridder would likely be a top 20 pick. If that’s the case, all it takes is one team to prefer him over Malik Willis, and this bet hits.
4. First Drafted QB: Matt Corral
+1700 @ MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 2/10
The Evidence: Last week, Peter Schrager said to keep an eye on Matt Corral for Carolina at 6. While I doubt it will happen, +1700 is nice in a year where there is so much uncertainty.
5. 2nd Overall Pick: Travon Walker
+300 @ Bovada; +300 @ MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 7/10
The Evidence: The Buzz on Travon Walker being a top 5 pick (or even the first pick overall) has been massive over the course of the last week, with trustworthy members of the media like Lance Zierlein, Peter Schrager, and Dane Brugler all chiming in. If you believe Jacksonville is planning on taking Aiden Hutchinson, then Travon Walker to the lions makes sense.
Albert Breer’s sources seem to think that Kayvon Thibodeaux wouldn’t be a great fit with Detroit’s coaching staff, and it’s seeming less and less likely Detroit will take Malik Willis. They are set on Tackles. That leaves Walker as the top player on the board (assuming the talk of him being a surefire top 5 pick is not a smokescreen).
6. 3rd Overall Pick: Evan Neal
+300 @ Bovada; +300 @ BetOnline; +260 @ MyBookie
My confidence this will happen: 8/10
The Evidence: From Jason La Canfora: "If that's how it goes down [Defensive Ends going 1 and 2], Nick (Texans GM Nick Caserio) will take Neal (Alabama tackle Evan Neal) with that third pick," said one executive who knows the Texans GM well. "I don't even think that's much of a debate for him. It would be Neal at 3."
I’ll take it.
7. Selected in the Top 10 picks: Trevor Penning
+600 @ BetOnline; +600 @ Bovada
My confidence this will happen: 5/10
The Evidence: Tony Pauline has mentioned that from what he’s hearing, the top 4 OTs will be coming off the board a lot faster that most expect them to. He also speculated that when the Saints got a second first round pick from the Eagles, it might have been with the intention of trading up again to secure a new starting tackle. The Saints and the Chargers are OT-needy teams that could trade up for Penning, and Seattle at 9 has a massive need at OT and it’s been reported they like Penning.
8. Selected in the Top 10 picks: Devin Lloyd
+600 @ BetOnline; +600 @ Bovada
My confidence this will happen: 4/10
The Evidence: Lloyd has been billed as a player who will go a lot higher in the draft than people expect. And there have been numerous reports linking him to teams in the top 10. Here’s one from Cam Marino: “Growing suspicion that the #Falcons will be in on #Utah LB Devin Lloyd at pick 8. Atlanta had reps at nearly half a dozen games last season. Teams love Lloyd.”
He has also been mocked to the Seahawks, who select at 9 (and doesn’t that feel kind of Seahawks-y?)
Good luck! More coming soon.