Your team is drafting ONE of these FIVE players: Picks 9-16
Using the Draft Rumors I've gathered to narrow down each team's options
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
Missed picks 1-8? Click here to check out Part 1 of the series.
Mock drafts are great. And over the past few years, the Rumor Mill Mock Draft has proven to be a fairly accurate method for predicting picks in the first round of the NFL Draft.
But in the lead-up to the draft, it can be helpful to get a bit more perspective on the handful of players each team is truly considering with their first round selection.
In this four part series, I will use rumors I have collected over the past couple months to narrow down each team’s options to the 5 players they are most likely to select on draft day.
The Methodology
Every pick is based on real, sourced draft rumors I have collected.
The picks are ranked, starting with most likely to be the selection at 1, to least likely, at 5.
Teams with multiple picks get multiple lists of 5, since they’re picking in different positions, where a different group of players will be available.
A quick note before we begin
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Picks 9-16
Let’s get started!
PICK 9: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Jermaine Johnson
Derek Stingley
Trevor Penning
Jordan Davis
Devin Lloyd
The Evidence:
Seattle? In the top 10? Here’s a team that has either not drafted in the first round or not drafted a consensus round 1 player in the first in what feels like a decade. Where do we even begin?
Early post-Wilson trade speculation had the Seahawks zeroed in on a QB to compete with Drew Lock.
On 4/5, @Schultz_Report tweeted that Desmond Ridder had a top-30 visit scheduled with Seattle, and on 4/13, Jeff Bell tweeted, “The Seahawks are going to draft Desmond Ridder,” though he admitted to me that it was his own analysis and speculation.
The QB trail has since cooled.
On 4/6, @MattFTheOracle, in his mock draft on FantasyPros, noted that Pete Carroll and John Schneider had gone to zero of the top QBs pro days. He notes that this is unusual for them based on their behavior in the past when they have drafted QBs.
There have been a host of other positions and specific players linked to Seattle:
On 4/15, Cam Marino wrote, “The Seahawks are gonna draft Devin Lloyd at 9.”
That same day, in his mock draft, Evan Silva (a notoriously accurate mock drafter in the past) picked Lloyd for the Seahawks, writing:
“Lloyd is my pick to be this year’s college prospect drafted far earlier than expected. I can envision old-school coach Pete Carroll falling for Lloyd as Bobby Wagner’s replacement”
Seattle has also been linked to some of the top tackles.
On 4/15, Albert Breer writes:
“Remember, Schneider’s never been afraid to do something that’s a little different, or value certain players he deems as Seattle types differently, and that’s where I’ll introduce you to Northern Iowa’s tough, mean tackle, Trevor Penning, who might need work to play left tackle in the pros, but brings a boatload of edge to the field.”
Brady Henderson echoes this on 4/18:
“Offensive tackle is the most glaring need, though the Seahawks could potentially bring back Duane Brown and/or Brandon Shell, as both former starters remain unsigned.”
And others have suggested the Seahawks could be in the market for one of the top two corners.
In the same MMQB quoted above, Albert Breer mentions the Seahawks could be perfectly positioned for a corner like Ahmad Gardner (although most signs are pointing to him being off the board by that point), but adds, “Seattle’s history under John Schneider and Pete Carroll has always been to find and/or manufacture corners in nontraditional ways.”
Despite the needs at QB, OT, LB and CB the loudest buzz has been hinting at Edge Rushers.
On 4/6, Matt Miller ,on the ESPN First Draft Podcast, mentioned that Seahawks have been linked to Jermaine Johnson and Kayvon Thibodeaux".
On 4/14, Rob Staton of the Seahawks Draft Blog wrote:
“I think the top realistic target is Jermaine Johnson at #9. He fits what the Seahawks like — he ran a 1.5 10-yard split and he has fantastic hands to disengage and disrupt. He’s quick to the edge and plays with intensity and violence. He has good length and size. He’s a potential heart-and-soul type who can help shape the identity of the team for the next few years. I just don’t think he lasts to #9, unfortunately. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Seattle’s ‘Plan A’ is Jermaine Johnson.”
Based on the way the surrounding picks are looking, pick 9 feels like the right place for Johnson to come off the board. Staton continues, “If Johnson is gone, I think this is where we see Derek Stingley come off the board.”
There are quite a few variables when it comes to Seattle’s pick:
I have Jermaine Johnson going one pick before Seattle, to Atlanta at 8 (Hence why I have Stingley pictured above).
Seattle likes to trade down, which could make the Trevor Penning or Devin Lloyd selections a bit more palatable.
If Jermaine Johnson is there, it seems likely he could be the pick.
If Johnson is gone and Seattle is unable to trade down, they could snatch up Derek Stingley.
PICK 10: NEW YORK JETS
Jameson Williams
Garrett Wilson
Jermaine Johnson
Drake London
Derek Stingley
The Evidence:
In Part 1 of this series, the rumors suggest that the Jets pick will be an Edge Rusher or an Offensive Tackle, with an outside chance they decide to take Ahmad Gardner.
At pick 10, the rumors seem to be heading in a different direction.
We’ve gotten some random whispers, like Tony Pauline, on 4/6, stating that the Jets really like Trevor Penning. But there doesn’t seem to be much buzz going in that direction, even though, according to PFN, “Jets coaches have confided to several players the team will go offensive tackle early in the draft.”
There’s been a great deal of speculation that the Jets could grab a corner at pick 10. On 4/19, DJ Bien-Aime tweeted, “Derek Stingley visiting the Jets today. Fwiw there’s people in the building who don’t believe there was a significant drop off from that 2019 year.”
But the corner buzz has not been very consistent, and the Jets’ need at Wide Receiver has overshadowed just about every other position.
On 4/15, Albert Breer wrote:
“If they stick here, I could see the Jets catching a falling Gardner or Thibodeaux, or maybe even Stingley. Absent that, I think this a spot where help could come for Zach Wilson, if all the receivers are sitting there for the Jets. In this scenario, they are, and this is the range where both USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson are pegged to be in play (and maybe Alabama’s Jameson Williams, too, based on teams’ comfort level with his ACL).”
Connor Hughes seems to agree, stating, “They’re not drafting a cornerback at No. 4 or 10.”
Along the same lines, Hughes believes that:
“unless the Jets manage to trade for a WR (which seems less and less likely by the day) they will address the position with this pick. Wilson’s run after the catch ability makes him a perfect fit in Mike LaFleur’s offense.”
So while we’ve determined that the pick is likely to be a Receiver, which one will it be?
On 4/18, Rich Cimini noted that the Jets are keen on Jameson Williams, since he “would be similar to a Tyreek Hill type.”
On 4/19, DJ Bien Aime writes:
“One polarizing option is Alabama’s Jameson Williams with the No. 10 overall pick.Team sources love Williams because he would add an explosiveness to the offense that was missing last year.”
Whether or not the Jets pull the trigger on Williams, this feels like a safe spot for the first or second receiver to come off the board.
PICK 11: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Kyle Hamilton
Garrett Wilson
Chris Olave
Derek Stingley
Jameson Williams
The Evidence:
All the buzz points in two directions:
Washington is either going receiver or defensive back. The option they choose will likely depend on who falls to them.
On 4/6, Josh Norris tweeted, “As @BillyM_91 acutely pointed out, Ron Rivera rarely travels to pro days. He was all over the Ohio State WRs in March.” Norris also suggests that the Commanders have an interest in Olave, but the visit could be to get a look at Garrett Wilson as well.
Most of the buzz has been suggesting that if the Commanders were to take a WR, it would be one of the Ohio State guys. It will be interesting to see if their presumed interest in Olave over Wilson is real, or if it is a reflection of their belief that Wilson will be gone by pick 11.
Let’s look into the DB option:
In his latest mock, Ben Standig paired the Washington Commanders with LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. In his podcast, Standig acknowledges the perception that Washington is targeting a receiver, but says he thinks the team has faith in Dyami Brown developing in his second year and the potential for Cam Sims to play a larger role.
Standig is very plugged in, and performs very well most years in predictive mocks. Not to mention he covers the Commanders specifically.
But is there a chance the Commanders have their eye on a DB not named Stingley?
On 4/7, Peter Schrager writes:
“[Kyle] Hamilton is a Ron Rivera-type player: Smart, competitive and a leader. He immediately boosts the Commanders' defense and is that dude behind their loaded front.”
And Standig, on 4/14, says:
“hearing more from scouts/sources about likelihood of Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton available at 11 … and projections now include 1-2 QBs in top 10”
On the same day, Bruce Feldman mentions he has Kyle Hamilton going to the Commanders at 11 in his mock.
Standig confirmed on 4/18 that the Commanders were having Hamilton in for a visit.
We rarely get this much buzz on one player ending up with a team. If Hamilton falls, and it’s looking increasingly likely that he will, I bet the Commanders will draft him.
PICK 12: MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Derek Stingley
Trent McDuffie (Pictured below. Stingley pictured below pick 9)
Garrett Wilson
Drake London
Kyle Hamilton
The Evidence:
Here’s another pick that could play out a million different ways:
All new front office, headed up by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. All new coaching staff, headed by Kevin O’Connell. Cap-strapped roster that will need to replace aging veterans at many positions sooner or later.
So what will Minnesota do?
Ever since the Vikings signed Za’Darius Smith, the consensus in the media has been Corner.
As early as 4/3, Peter King noted, “The Vikings are interested in Stingley too, and they might view a one-year Patrick Peterson mentorship (LSU ties) worthy of trying to trade up for him.”
On 4/6, Tony Pauline, on a PFN YouTube video, mentioned that the Vikings love Trent McDuffie and could trade down and take him.
On 4/12, Chad Graff writes:
In a dream world for them, I think they'd trade back and still be able to get cornerback Trent McDuffie. That could be the case if they don't love Derek Stingley Jr. and/or Stingley Jr. gets taken right before they're on the clock.
And here’s Matt Miller on 4/16:
“For Stingley, the LSU cornerback, the Vikings at No. 12 feels like the absolute bottom of his range.”
On the same day, Jeremy Fowler confirms, “The Vikings like Derek Stingley.”
More Chad Graff, this time on 4/18: “If Stingley isn’t there, I think a trade back is the most likely option.”
And on 4/19, Darren Wolfson mentions that the Vikings “have the book on Derek Stingley,” since they hired his old DBs coach Daronte Jones from LSU.
Sensing a theme here?
So what if Stingley is gone and a trade down for McDuffie doesn’t materialize?
Here’s Peter Schrager, in his latest mock:
“Minnesota picks 12th overall. Bright young HC and innovative new GM. Two defensive names w/ ties who could be on board there:— Derek Stingley, Jr. , CB, LSU: Could be a young apprentice to LSU legend Patrick Peterson—Jermaine Johnson II, DE, FSU: Eden Prairie, MN native.”
There have been some whispers of interest in Kyle Hamilton, were he to fall. But even those involve Stingley:
Here’s Matthew Freedman on 4/18: “Stingley or Hamilton look like very strong possibilities. I lean toward Stingley.”
This has been so Stingley-centric that it feels like we need an “Others receiving votes” section:
On 4/7, Darren Wolfson said not to rule out the Vikings taking a WR at 12, claiming that they like Drake London and Garrett Wilson more that the others who are likely to be available in that range.
The Vikings have also been linked to trade rumors:
Tony Pauline mentioned a possible trade down with the Chargers at 17. In this scenario, the Trent McDuffie pick becomes a bit more logical.
And on 4/19, on KFAN, Vikings play-by-play announcer Paul Allen mysteriously said “going from 12 to 4 could happen.”
But it’s hard to see an analytics-centric front office giving up a ton of assets to move up in a draft with arguably zero elite prospects. Who would that move be for? Sauce Gardner? Kayvon Thibodeaux? I’m skeptical.
PICK 13: HOUSTON TEXANS
Devin Lloyd
Derek Stingley
Kyle Hamilton
Jameson Williams
Drake London
The Evidence:
Houston seems to be looking mostly at defensive players, with a couple exceptions.
Let’s get those exceptions out of the way.
On 4/18, Jordan Schultz writes:
“I could absolutely see the #Texans going WR at 13: Jameson Williams and Drake London both great options with immense skill sets.”
But that’s about all the buzz I’ve seen on that end of the ball.
On 4/17, Lance Zierlein was asked on twitter, “Why isn’t Devin Lloyd to the Texans seen as a stronger possibility?”
His response: “It is.”
If we combine this with Evan Silva’s comment on Lloyd (under the Seahawks pick at 9), it feels plausible that this could be where he comes off the board.
But lately, there have been more and more rumblings on one specific player:
On 4/18, Tony Pauline mentions the Texans as a possible landing spot for Derek Stingley.
On the same day, Albert Breer writes:
“every team I’ve talked to the last couple of days has mentioned Lovie Smith’s comments about the Texans needing corners to play defense the way they want to, and in particular because Smith’s Tampa 2 roots wouldn’t indicate that’d be the case.”
The most convincing thing I’ve heard?
Here’s Matt Miller on 4/19:
“The Texans have done more work on Derek Stingley than any other team.”
There are quite a few variables here, the first being what does Houston do at pick 3?
If they were to take Sauce Gardner that early, then OL, LB or WR would be on the table here. If not, would they consider trading up from 13, maybe to Atlanta’s pick at 8 or Washington’s pick at 11 to secure Stingley?
I can see it happening. If not, I doubt he will be there, and they will have to look in a different direction.
PICK 14: BALTIMORE RAVENS
Trevor Penning
Jordan Davis
Kyle Hamilton
Devonte Wyatt
Trent McDuffie
The Evidence:
Based on the rumors out there, Baltimore seems to covet two players at pick 14: Trevor Penning and Jordan Davis.
On 4/4, PFN stated, “I’m hearing the latest Penning comes off the board is pick No. 14 to the Baltimore Ravens.”
On 4/14, Anthony Amico posted a Daniel Jeremiah quote from February:
“Man, when I look at the options that they'll have, I don't know there's going to be that much difference. The one player, if he's there, I just would write it in as Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa, because when you watch him, this guy is just a Raven. The way he plays, the physicality, he's huge. He's 330 pounds. He's almost 6'7".”
Matt Miller confirms that on 4/19, the Ravens brought Penning in for a visit.
But what happens if Penning is off the board?
There has been a similar sentiment that the Ravens wouldn’t let a player like Jordan Davis slide past them.
Many have also noted Baltimore’s need for defensive help.
On 4/18, Jamison Hensley wrote:
The Ravens have to select the best available pass-rusher or cornerback. Baltimore's biggest need is at outside linebacker because Tyus Bowser tore his Achilles in the season finale and Za'Darius Smith backed out of an agreement in free agency. There's also a void at cornerback where there is no depth outside of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, both of whom suffered season-ending injuries last season.
But it’s looking like the top two Corners, Hamilton, and the top five Edge Rushers will be gone by 14. If one of those players were to fall, then I would expect them to be a consideration. If not, what direction would Baltimore go?
Likely one of Trevor Penning or Jordan Davis.
PICK 15: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Jordan Davis
Drake London
Chris Olave
Devon Lloyd
Kyle Hamilton
The Evidence:
This is where things get a little messy.
With two picks in fairly quick succession, the Eagles will be looking to fill multiple needs, starting with whichever player they feel is least likely to be around two picks later.
Here’s Matt Miller on 3/31, answering a question on which positions he has heard the Eagles are targeting in round 1: “WR, DT, LB— Maybe a DE is what I’ve heard.”
On 4/5, @TheHonestNFL writes:
“All signs seem to be pointing to the Eagles zeroing in on Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt at 15. Wouldn’t rule out a trade to move up a few spots on draft day if one goes earlier than expected. It’s a structural necessity both schematically and for long-term roster construction.”
And Tim McManus, on 4/18, writes:
“I'd put defensive line and defensive back as the more likely positions they'll address early, with receiver in play on Day 2.”
There have also been some random rumors here and there, like:
“There are some in the #Eagles building who believe Matt Corral is ‘hands-down’ the best quarterback in the draft”
Matt Miller, on 4/15: “[Kyle] Hamilton is harder to peg because the Notre Dame safety's positional value and a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash time seem to have cooled his stock. I see the No. 15 and the Eagles as his floor.”
Daniel Flick, on 4/14: “I don’t think Devin Lloyd gets past Philadelphia at 15.”
But all of those seem to be unlikely scenarios, and the buzz linking Philadelphia to those positions has been minimal.
So if it’s not a Defensive Tackle, what position could the Eagles be targeting?
Here’s Albert Breer, on 4/18: “Would the Eagles take a receiver for the third year in a row? No one’s ruling it out.”
The WR feels more solid now that it’s been corroborated by Peter Schrager. On 4/18, he tweets:
“Could Eagles go WR in the first round three straight years? The answer is absolutely. And depending on the way the 1st round plays out, they may be in a sweet spot at 15 to get one of the top 5 before a host of WR needy teams. Eagles have 15, 18, and 8 other picks. WR at 15? Check.”
The question here is really about who the Eagles have higher on their board between Jordan Davis and the available receivers, and which player they feel more confident will fall to them at pick 18.
PICK 16: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Chris Olave
Trevor Penning
Malik Willis
Desmond Ridder
Jameson Williams
The Evidence:
Ever since they made the trade to secure a second first round pick, the speculation is all over the place for New Orleans.
Here’s what Daniel Jeremiah said about it on 4/5:
“Reached out to 6 GM’s to get their thoughts on the Saints motive for the trade with Eagles. Majority think it’s about Saints believing they are really close and two quality starters could put them in the playoffs right now. One mentioned Ridder as mid 1st possibility.”
Some seem to think that one of these “quality starters” is a QB.
On 4/4, Tony Pauline writes:
“Saints want to come away with a QB and WR in round one. They just furthered the cause for coming away with both.”
A week later, per @Schultz_Report, league sources say the #Saints are high on QBs Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett and will consider trading up to secure one of them, and @uSTADIUM mentions the Saints as a team that has called “and laid the groundwork for draft day trade-ups”
But many aren’t buying the rumors tying New Orleans to a QB, since the moves they’ve made thus far seem to suggest they believe they are in a win-now window. Would any of the 2022 draft’s top QBs really give them a better chance to win this year than Jameis Winston?
The more believable speculation is that the Saints want an OT and a WR.
Presumably, if they want one of the top four OT prospects, they will have to trade up. That makes WR a bit more realistic at this spot.
On 4/19, Ryan McCrystal writes:
“Two recent draft rumors that feel connected to me: 1) Saints want Jameson Williams 2) Jameson Williams is a top-10 pick. Starting to wonder of someone sees the Saints' interest, sees their draft capital and planted some rumors angling for a trade.”
In this series of draft scenarios, we have Jameson Williams going to the Jets at 10, and a fall to 16 appears unlikely.
Chris Olave is more likely to be available at 16, and feels like a great fit for the Saints offense.