Your team is drafting ONE of these FIVE players: Picks 17-24
Using the Draft Rumors I've gathered to narrow down each team's options
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
Missed picks 9-16? Click here to check out Part 1 of the series.
Mock drafts are great. And over the past few years, the Rumor Mill Mock Draft has proven to be a fairly accurate method for predicting picks in the first round of the NFL Draft.
But in the lead-up to the draft, it can be helpful to get a bit more perspective on the handful of players each team is truly considering with their first round selection.
In this four part series, I will use rumors I have collected over the past couple months to narrow down each team’s options to the 5 players they are most likely to select on draft day.
The Methodology
Every pick is based on real, sourced draft rumors I have collected.
The picks are ranked, starting with most likely to be the selection at 1, to least likely, at 5.
Teams with multiple picks get multiple lists of 5, since they’re picking in different positions, where a different group of players will be available.
A quick note before we begin
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Picks 17-24
Let’s get started!
PICK 17: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Chris Olave
Trent McDuffy
Trevor Penning (In a trade up)
Treylon Burks (Pictured below, since Olave, McDuffy and Penning have been pictured previously)
Devonte Wyatt
The Evidence:
The Chargers have a solid roster and could go in any direction. Unfortunately, it feels like they’re 3-4 spots lower in draft position than they need to be to grab their top prospects.
I would have penning ranked higher on this list if I thought they had a chance of getting him. If they want to take him, they will likely have to trade up.
Speaking of trading up, on 4/4, PFN wrote that the Chargers could conceivably move up to the Vikings’ pick at 12 if Penning is still on the board.
If they can’t get Penning?
Mel Kiper mentioned he can see the Chargers taking Tyler Smith of Tulsa, but 17 feels a bit high.
Would the Chargers pivot to the defensive side of the ball if they aren’t able to secure one of the top four tackles?
On 3/10, Anthony Staggs wrote,
“Well I thought that edge was a need for the Chargers, they agreed. Their draft needs now look more like DT/WR/OT. Look for Penning, Olave/Burks/Wilson/London/Dotson, or Jordan Davis/Devonte Wyatt now.”
On 4/18, Paul Gutierrez chimes in on the defense:
“Yes, the Chargers have added to their pass rush ( Khalil Mack ) and pass defense ( J.C. Jackson ), but after having the 30th-ranked rush defense, they also need help down low and in the trenches. A run-stuffing and gap-eating defensive tackle would foot the bill here. But would Georgia's Jordan Davis still be there at No. 17 overall?”
Based on the teams picking above the Chargers, if feels like he will be gone, and they will be faced with the choice of taking Devonte Wyatt if they want to go IDL.
If 17 feels too rich for Devonte Wyatt, who some see falling to the end of round one or even round two, the Chargers could look at Corner, where it’s been reported they like Derek Stingley (likely out of reach). So what about McDuffie?
Per Gilbert Manzano, “Washington CB Trent McDuffie said he had a good conversation with the #Chargers. “They feel like I could be a good fit there.”
So that’s definitely a possibility.
But would the Chargers be tempted by the depth at the WR position in this draft?
As early as 3/2, Gavino Borquez wrote, “The Chargers are one of the few teams that Arkansas WR Treylon Burks mentioned he has met with.”
Daniel Jeremiah, on 4/8, tweeted:
“#Chargers, I’m told, would love to add speed to their receiving core in the draft. Two WRs I know they like are Christian Watson and Chris Olave.”
And Cole Topham from ChargersWire chimed in, “Ohio State WR Chris Olave could fit right in and increase the potency of the Chargers’ aerial attack.”
The Chargers will likely be faced with a decision:
On the one hand, they could trade up to grab one of their top tackles, the receiver they like most, or Jordan Davis.
On the other hand, they could stay put and hope that one of their top ranked players falls through the gauntlet of teams with similar teams picking right above them.
PICK 18: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Drake London
Trent McDuffie
Devin Lloyd
Lewis Cine
Devonte Wyatt
The Evidence:
Philly is in a good position here, picking one spot ahead of New Orleans, for the second time in the first round, with some of the same needs.
Let’s revisit Matt Miller’s 3/31 list of positions he believes the Eagles will be targeting in round one:
WR, DT, LB, and maybe a DE
Since the Eagles pick twice in fairly quick succession, many of the rumors that were applicable for pick 15 are applicable at 18. For more in-depth examples, check out yesterday’s post.
But let’s dive deeper into some of the players we haven’t covered:
In Peter Schrager’s second mock draft, he gives the Eagles Devin Lloyd over Trent McDuffie, and there has been increasing chatter that Philadelphia could be interested in the LB.
On 3/21, Eliot Shorr-Parks mentioned that Drake London had met with the Eagles. Back in March, it seemed nearly impossible that London could fall this far, but since not running the 40 at his pro day, he seems to have slipped down a few boards.
In the first article of Bob McGinn’s annual series, interviewing various scouts in his network, Drake London ranked below Chris Olave, which was a bit of a surprise. That lines up pretty well with the series of picks above, that have Olave going to the Saints.
It’s worth noting again that Schrager has the Eagles taking London at 15 in his latest mock.
I included Devonte Wyatt on this list since most rank him as the second best IDL in the draft.
Cine has also been mocked to the Eagles in multiple drafts in the past week.
PICK 19: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Desmond Ridder
Malik Willis
Tyler Smith
Treylon Burks
Lewis Cine
The Evidence:
Similar to Philly, the Saints pick twice in fairly quick succession, so many of the needs and rumors here will line up with those shared under pick 16.
You can read that description in yesterday’s article.
One new name is that of Lewis Cine, who has been a late riser in the pre-draft process.
On 4/14, @askmetosay323 tweeted:
“I don’t have any inside info on this but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Lewis Cine ended up a Saint. He plays exactly like the type that Jeff Ireland loves in secondary/safeties.”
Cine has become an increasingly popular pick for New Orleans in recent mock drafts.
What if the Saints actually decide to pull the trigger on a QB?
Let’s revisit what Daniel Jeremiah said on 4/5:
“Reached out to 6 GM’s to get their thoughts on the Saints motive for the trade with Eagles. Majority think it’s about Saints believing they are really close and two quality starters could put them in the playoffs right now. One mentioned Ridder as mid 1st possibility.”
I put Ridder at the top of this list because he’s been more actively linked to the Saints, and is expected to be a top 20 pick.
I also think it’s likely that Malik Willis goes in the top 10, or just outside of it, with the Pittsburgh Steelers a possible trade up candidate. More on that when we cover pick 20.
Multiple members of the draft media have claimed that the Saints’ goal is to leave round 1 with two immediate, quality starters. This would point more to the likelihood of New Orleans targeting a receiver and a tackle, but QB is definitely a possibility.
PICK 20: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Malik Willis
Desmond Ridder
Trent McDuffie
Devonte Wyatt
Logan Hall
The Evidence:
The Steelers may be considered the biggest lock to take a QB on draft day. With this year’s imperfect QB draft class, Pittsburgh doesn’t have to worry about “overdrafting” a bad QB in the top 10 (unless of course they trade up for one).
The QB chatter started early, with Thor Nystrom, on 2/3, tweeting, “An NFL source told me yesterday that the #Steelers clearly prefer Liberty QB Malik Willis to Pitt QB Kenny Pickett.”
This was backed up more than a month later, when @jpafootball tweeted:
“Update: #Steelers HC Mike Tomlin had dinner with QB Malik Willis last night. The Steelers have not been secretive about their interest in him.”
And in early April, Ian Rapoport wrote:
“The #Steelers have been one of the most interested teams when it comes to QB draft prospects and it all picks up soon: Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder flies to PIT tonight for a visit tomorrow and then UNC QB Sam Howell has his #Steelers visit on Friday.”
In other words, it’s no secret that the Steelers have done plenty of due diligence on this year’s QBs.
And it looks like their favorite is Malik Willis.
Per @uSTADIUM on 4/13,
"#Saints and #Steelers are teams that have called and laid the groundwork for draft day trade-ups”
Could these trades be for Malik Willis?
On 4/15, Jason La Canfora writes:
“‘I've seen the Steelers contingent at these pro days,’ one evaluator said. ‘This isn't some bluff. That's not how Kevin (GM Kevin Colbert) operates. I know they like some of these kids. I don't think they jump all the way up for Willis , but they're up to something.’ Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder might be the guy, and perhaps they move up slightly to do it.”
So what if Pittsburgh decides against taking a QB?
Consensus then shifts to the defensive side of the ball.
Early in the pre-draft process, Nick Farabaugh tweeted,
“Washington CB Trent McDuffie as a possibility for the Steelers at 20, let's talk about it.
This CB class is nuts. There's like at least 5 CBs that I think are worthy of the 20th overall pick and McDuffie is another one of them. Like a completely scheme versatile player with an appetite in to help in run support as well really great athleticism. I'm in.”
If McDuffie is still on the board, the early twenties should be his floor.
Farabaugh also shared that the Steelers have met with Devin Lloyd, who has met with a ton of teams picking in the teens and twenties.
And per Farabaugh, the Steelers have also met with a ton of interior defensive linemen, including Georgia IDL Jordan Davis, Georgia IDL Devonte Wyatt, Houston IDL Logan Hall, Arkansas IDL John Ridgeway, Texas A&M IDL DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M IDL Jayden Peevy, Oklahoma IDL Perrion Winfrey.
Devonte Wyatt would be the most logical name at 20 out of that list, with Jordan Davis likely gone, but the Steelers have been known to surprise at times, so Logan Hall isn’t out of the question.
PICK 21: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Trent McDuffie
Zion Johnson (Pictured below, since McDuffie has been pictured previously)
Kenyon Green
Daxton Hill
Devin Lloyd
The Evidence:
Trying to guess a Patriots first round draft pick might be a fool’s errand, but let’s give it a try.
Lately there’s been a bit of buzz on McDuffie, who is linked to many teams picking above New England, but could be in play here if still on the board.
On 4/8, Evan Lazar wrote,
“We’ll see if it’s deception or real interest. But the #Patriots have now reportedly had “30” visits with two first-round CBs in Andrew Booth Jr. and Trent McDuffie.”
About a week later, Albert Breer tweeted, “Trent McDuffie sounds to me like a perfect Patriot”
Who are the other options?
On 4/14, Nick Guarisco wrote:
“Breer points to Trent McDuffie and Zion Johnson as possible Patriots. I’m in lockstep. On my FLG Podcast yesterday, I stated that McDuffie, Zion, and Devin Lloyd should be the 3 favorites for Pats pick at 21. High football IQ. Versatility. Position need. Kenyon Green another fit.”
Let’s talk about those other guys, starting with Devin Lloyd:
On 4/19, Evan Lazar tweeted:
“Talking linebackers on my #Patriots big board today. The closer we get to draft weekend, the more I like Devin Lloyd for the Pats if they want an impact player in the front seven on day one.”
And Adam H. Beasley writes:
"If you're looking for players that fit a prototype, versatile linebackers Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean are exactly the types of players that Belichick has coveted in years past."
I didn’t include Nakobe Dean in this list because there’s increasing talk of him falling out of round one altogether, although I wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick selected him.
What about Zion Johnson?
He’s been perhaps the player most mocked to the Patriots over the past couple months, and they have met with him. Not to mention the local angle makes sense, with him being a Boston College product.
Depending on how New England’s draft board lines up, Kenyon Green could be an option as well:
Per Ari Meirov, Kenyon Green has officially met with the Patriots.
@TheJoeyMcNeely writes:
“Kenyon Green is such a Patriots-type of player. Immaculate off-field kid with tremendous tape against top-tier SEC talent. Versatile guy as well who played all over the line.”
A dark horse candidate could be Daxton Hill.
On 3/28, Ryan Spagnoli writes:
“The more the AFC loads up with elite playmakers/speed, the more I like Michigan’s Daxton Hill to the #Patriots. 4.38 speed, centerfielder w box/slot ability and excels in man. Would be a chess piece in Bill Belichick’s defense. Just draft ATHLETES!”
And here’s Evan Lazar on Hill:
“With Bill Belichick continuing to load up on hybrid DBs, Michigan's Daxton Hill is a potential #Patriots round-one target: - Covers TEs & over the slot with CB-like man coverage skills- Excellent route recognition & range as a post-safety - Ball skills to make impact plays.”
PICK 22: GREEN BAY PACKERS
Treylon Burks
Daxton Hill (Pictured below, since Burks has been pictured previously)
Chris Olave (In a trade up)
Lewis Cine
Travis Jones
The Evidence:
How would Packers fans feel if Brian Gutekunst were to go another year without drafting a receiver in the first round?
It’s certainly possible.
While to Packers have been linked to multiple receivers in this class, they may feel that they can get better value in round 2, and load up on quality players at other positions in round 1.
The way the board seems to be falling, the top-tier receivers are likely to be gone by pick 22, with the possible exception of Treylon Burks, who, per Doug Kyed, has met with the Packers.
Jordan Schultz tweeted:
“#Packers would love to find a true WR1 with one of their two 1st-rd picks (22 and 28) -- and finally draft a WR in the 1st-rd during the Aaron Rodgers era.
Keep an eye on Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson -- all terrific players with immense skill sets.”
To which Peter Bukowski replied:
“I’m once again asking everyone to stop mocking bad athletes, smalls and olds to the Packers in the first round. No Dotson, Green, Wyatt, Lloyd etc. They’re just not going to pick those guys.”
The Packers have been linked to Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Christian Watson, but those feel more like options at pick 28 than at 22, so we will revisit those players in the next article of this series.
That really only leaves Treylon Burks as the option who fits the Packers’ ideal size, athletic, and age profile, and he may not even fall to 22.
So could they trade up?
On 4/21, Mel Kiper writes:
“Speaking of Green Bay, I really think that's the team to watch here, moving up for a wide receiver. Think about it: The Packers need a playmaker who could make an early impact for Aaron Rodgers . If they move into the top 10, they could get the top wideout in the class. Maybe it's Wilson or London , or maybe they feel good about the medical reports for Williams, who tore his ACL in January but still could be the No. 1 receiver off the board.”
What if they don’t go receiver?
On 4/15, Brennen Rupp published this article with the caption:
“A year ago Brian Gutekunst dipped his toes into the Georgia secondary by drafting Eric Stokes in the 1st RD. Check out why LewisCine could have Gutekunst coming back to Athens in 2022.”
On 4/20, The Packers Wire wrote an article on UConn DL Travis Jones’ fit with the Packers.
The same day, David Kisamfu shared a Forbes article with the caption: “Could Michigan Safety Daxton Hill Be Too Talented For The Green Bay Packers To Pass Up?”
Both Hill and Cine have featured in numerous recent mock drafts for the Packers.
It feels like Safety has been an underrated need for Green Bay in the pre-draft process, and Hill or Cine could be high on Gutekunst’s board.
PICK 23: ARIZONA CARDINALS
Zion Johnson
Kenyon Green (Pictured below, since Johnson was pictured previously)
George Karlaftis
Jameson Williams (In a trade up)
Chris Olave (In a trade up)
The Evidence:
Will the Cardinals plug some of the more glaring holes on their roster, or opt for a more “fun” pick?
It could go either way.
Most agree that Offensive Line is the biggest need on the roster, but few agree on whether the team will address it in the first round.
On 4/18, Josh Weinfuss writes:
“Picking an offensive lineman is far from guaranteed for the Cardinals considering how many offensive options they lost in free agency. If the lineman is the best option by far there, then it could be a good choice. But Arizona needs playmakers, so a wide receiver would be the other move at No. 23. The Cardinals need to give quarterback Kyler Murray all of the targets if they want to get back to the playoffs and beat the Rams.”
Peter Schrager gave Zion Johnson to the Cardinals in his latest mock, and per Jess Root, they have hosted Kenyon Green for a visit, so it’s clear OL is on their radar. But the receiver chatter has been pretty consistent.
Here’s Albert Breer on 4/20:
“ … my radar is certainly up for Arizona to take a receiver at 23, and maybe even trade up to get one. I do think if Alabama’s Jameson Williams were to drop there (and I don’t think he will), the Cardinals wouldn’t stay on the clock for very long. Maybe they’ll even move up to get him—I’ve heard what I’ve heard on their interest … ”
Johnny Venerable confirms the Jameson Williams interest, claiming the Cardinals are “infatuated” and view him as a “superstar level prospect.”
What are the options if Arizona takes neither an Offensive Lineman nor a Receiver?
Though George Karlaftis seems to have fallen down some boards as of late, he has been mocked to the Cardinals a ton, and on 4/11, Tom Pelissero confirmed that they had hosted him for a visit.
PICK 24: DALLAS COWBOYS
Kenyon Green
Treylon Burks
Tyler Smith (Pictured below, since Green and Burks have been pictured previously)
Daxton Hill
Logan Hall
The Evidence:
Going into the 2021 season, everyone was worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which ended up having a great year. Now, with La’el Collins and Amari Cooper gone, everyone is worried about the offense.
On 3/30, Dane Brugler wrote:
“The Cowboys are determined to get better on offense, making WR or OL the clear favorites here. The Cowboys met with Kenyon Green at the combine and will soon schedule a 30 visit with him at their facility.”
Lately, attention has shifted to Tyler Smith, who has been somewhat of a late riser in the pre-draft process.
On 4/16, on twitter, Eric Galko predicted that Tyler Smith should end up in or just outside the top 20.
Matt Miller responded, “Dallas @ 24?,” to which Galko responded, “Think that’s his floor.”
That’s notable for a prospect who many didn’t see landing in round one. But Kiper Mocked Tyler Smith to Dallas as early as 3/23.
If not OL, could Dallas be targeting a wide receiver?
On 4/15, Matt Miller writes:
“The Cowboys have been heavily linked to wide receivers throughout the pre-draft process and could be targeting a move up to land Garrett Wilson (Ohio State) or Jameson Williams (Alabama).”
And we can’t rule out a pick to bolster the defense.
Matt Owen writes:
“Last year I spent the whole off-season talking about Jevon Holland being a safety that Dallas should target (he graded out as PFF'S #4 safety this year).
This year's Jevon Holland is Daxton Hill.”
Ron Bohning discusses Daxton Hill’s fit with the Cowboys in this article