Your team is drafting ONE of these FIVE players: Picks 1-8
Using the Draft Rumors I've gathered to narrow down each team's options
Before we dive in, follow me on twitter: @MAPavoloni for more draft-related content and buzz.
Mock drafts are great. And over the past few years, the Rumor Mill Mock Draft has proven to be a fairly accurate method for predicting picks in the first round of the NFL Draft.
But in the lead-up to the draft, it can be helpful to get a bit more perspective on the handful of players each team is truly considering with their first round selection.
In this four part series, I will use rumors I have collected over the past couple months to narrow down each team’s options to the 5 players they are most likely to select on draft day.
The Methodology
Every pick is based on real, sourced draft rumors I have collected.
The picks are ranked, starting with most likely to be the selection at 1, to least likely, at 5.
Teams with multiple picks get multiple lists of 5, since they’re picking in different positions, where a different group of players will be available.
A quick note before we begin
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Picks 1-8
Let’s get started!
PICK 1: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Aidan Hutchinson
Travon Walker
Ikem Ekwonu
Evan Neal
Kavon Thibodeaux
The Evidence:
I’m on the fence with this one. Still leaning Hutchinson, but could easily turn out to be Walker, as Peter Schrager has it in his 4/19 mock.
By now, anyone who follows the draft with some degree of interest has likely seen the buzz from Schrager, Mike Garafolo, Lance Zierlein, Albert Breer and others that Trent Baalke could opt for the less proven, higher-upside player in Walker.
I also enjoyed this today from Matthew Freedman: “I might regret tweeting this, but … There’s no way GM Trent Baalke wants to draft Jim Harbaugh’s golden boy Aidan Hutchinson at No. 1.” While that’s not a rumor per se, it kinda gets you thinking …
Albert Breer writes:
“Multiple rival executives raised to me that Baalke is also sensitive to a perception problem he and his team have right now, and that he, and the team, will get roasted if they do anything other than take Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or get a king’s ransom for the pick.”
And not everyone is convinced the Jags are even going to take one of the top two EDGE players.
Matt Lombardo on 4/14 shared, “They could easily go pass-rusher, but it’s the worst kept secret that Doug Pederson wants to go offense with that pick."
Breer echoes rumblings of this in the latest MMQB, and Peter Schrager implies on GMFB that Ekwonu could be a dark horse pick at 1.
I don’t think there’s any chance the Jags take someone outside of the top four in the list, but since it’s a list of 5, I included Thibodeaux as the next most likely (thought it’s not gonna happen) option.
PICK 2: DETROIT LIONS
Travon Walker
Kavon Thibodeaux
Aidan Hutchinson
Sauce Gardner
Kyle Hamilton
The Evidence:
The Lions have been pretty quiet, so a lot of the “rumors” out there are simply connecting the dots.
On 4/4, Peter King mentioned that the Lions really like Kayvon Thibodeaux. Chris Burke of The Athletic echoed this sentiment on 4/13:
“The Lions keep trying to muddy the waters regarding their plans, but edge rusher is a massive need and they’ve put in a ton of work on this group. Thibodeaux, in particular, has been a focus since early in the college season.”
But about a week ago, the tide started to turn. On 4/15, Albert Breer writes,
“A lot of people are convinced they will go edge rusher here regardless. And I’d agree that if Hutchinson is there, this will become academic for them. If he’s not? Well, I can tell you that no one I’ve talked to at this point believes that Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is in any way a culture fit for Detroit coach Dan Campbell. ‘His personality is a lot,’ said one exec, ‘and you hear the head coach there isn’t a fan.’”
I think it’s pretty clear at this point that if Jacksonville were to pass on Hutchinson, the Lions would sprint to turn in that card. But if he doesn’t, and the pick isn’t Thibodeaux, then who will it be?
Breer follows up with:
“Walker, on the other hand, would make sense, if the Lions are confident they can develop him into more than he was on his college tape.”
Combine this with the fact that many around the league believe Walker is destined to go in the top 5, and Detroit just makes sense. They’re set at tackle, the second overall pick feels too high for a one of this year’s QBs, Sauce Gardner, or Kyle Hamilton, so if the Lions like Walker and aren’t able to trade down, he feels like the safe bet.
What if they do pull off a trade down?
On 4/18, Breer mentions that a ton of teams with early picks are looking to trade down. He matches them up with S Kyle Hamilton in a trade down scenario, which is why I included him at the bottom of the top 5.
PICK 3: HOUSTON TEXANS
Evan Neal
Ikem Ekwonu
Sauce Gardner
Travon Walker
Kayvon Thibodeaux
The Evidence:
Houston’s choice at 3 seems to be a bit clearer than Detroit’s at 2, but not by much.
On 4/11, Jordan Schultz writes:
“Offensive line is a huge priority for the #Texans in this draft, and another strong signal that the organization believes long-term in Davis Mills. Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are both excellent options at 3.”
Jason La Canfora backs this up on 4/15:
“If that's how it goes down [Defensive Ends going 1 and 2], Nick (Texans GM Nick Caserio) will take Neal (Alabama tackle Evan Neal) with that third pick," said one executive who knows the Texans GM well. "I don't even think that's much of a debate for him. It would be Neal at 3."
So why is Sauce Gardner #3 on this list?
In his newest mock, Peter Schrager says, “I’ve heard a lot of noise from folks around the league that Houston could pick one of the two corners—but this seems too rich a spot in the draft to take a DB.”
It’s worth noting that in the mock, Schrager has the Texans selecting Ekwonu—so Neal may not be a lock.
I included Walker and Thibodeaux because the Texans have had both in for Top-30 visits, but there doesn’t seem to be much buzz that they are looking to take a Defensive End.
PICK 4: NEW YORK JETS
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Ikem Ekwonu
Jermaine Johnson
Sauce Gardner
Jameson Williams
The Evidence:
Here’s where things get a little crazy, because consensus on who the Jets will pick has shifted back and forth quite a bit over the past few weeks.
Let’s break this down chronologically …
In late May, Connor Hughes wrote:
“We just spoke to Joe Douglas. He said the #Jets are operating as if Mekhi Becton will be one of their two starting OTs. Stressed importance of pass rusher — sure songs like DE at No. 4. Still open to a big trade if a player becomes available.”
About a week later, on 4/6, Tony Pauline wrote that the pick at 4 was likely to be Jermaine Johnson or Sauce Gardner, and stated a few days later that “The Jets have been in constant contact with [Jermaine Johnson] and have been doing an inordinate amount of research on the Florida State product.”
Still unclear to this point: If multiple of the top 4 EDGE options are still on the board after 3 picks, who will the Jets pick?
We get some clarity on this from Connor Hughes on 4/13:
“It’s really hard to see the Jets passing on Thibodeaux at No. 4, but if he’s off the board, watch Florida State edge Jermaine Johnson.”
So it’s Thibodeaux, and then Johnson if Thibodeaux is off the board, right? Well, maybe not …
On 4/14. Rich Cimini acknowledges that Thibodeaux is an option at four, but goes on to state, “They really like OT Ickey Ekwonu (5), I’m told. KT would fill the bigger need. They’ve done a lot of work on him”
On 4/15, Albert Breer adds fuel to the Ekwonu speculation:
“Edge rusher is a need. Corner is too, and we saw GM Joe Douglas take a swing at getting Zach Wilson a weapon in the Jets’ bid for Tyreek Hill. But there’s still a feeling he’ll take an offensive lineman in the first round for the third time in as many years as GM with one of his two first-round picks. And Ekwonu, a real mauler, is the one I’ve heard the Jets connected to most.”
And here’s Connor Hughes again:
“[Taking an OT] is only a conversation if Ikem Ekwonu is there. And the only way Ekwonu is there is if pass rushers go 1, 2 and 3. Douglas would then have to pick between the fourth-best pass rusher in this class (one that was already without a Nick Bosa or Chase Young), or an offensive lineman that many believe is among the top prospects in several years. Ekwonu is the pick I believe Douglas makes in this situation.”
TLDR: This leads me to believe the following:
The Jets really like Kayvon Thibodeaux, and will take him if he’s there at 4. Peter Schrager backs this up on 4/18: “Kayvon Thibodeaux had a great meeting with the Jets on Friday. I’d say he’s very much in the conversation at number 4.”
If Thibodeaux is not there, and all the OTs are, the Jets will strongly consider taking Ekwonu.
If Thibodeaux and Ekwonu are off the board, Johnson and Sauce Gardner become the prime options.
Jameson Williams is on the list in case all of the above is wrong and they decide to start the run on WRs early. They’ve been linked to Williams (more on that when we cover pick 10).
PICK 5: NEW YORK GIANTS
Ikem Ekwonu
Charles Cross
Evan Neal
Sauce Gardner
Kayvon Thibodeaux
The Evidence:
Opinions on the Giants’ situation have also evolved quite a bit in the lead-up to the draft.
It seems widely agreed that they are eyeing a tackle at 5, but which one?
On 4/5, Jordan Schultz writes, “Bama’s Evan Neal is a real possibility at 5 for NY. #Giants like Neal a lot and drafting him would signal a bona fide investment in Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley — something both players deserve.”
Adding credence to Schultz’s opinion, Dan Duggan, on 4/13, writes,
“If Ekwonu or Neal are available at No. 5, the Giants would likely turn their card in for either without hesitation. If Ekwonu goes to Houston, then the Giants would gladly take Neal. Things would get really interesting if both of those tackles were off the board. The Giants likely would then pivot to defense, with the decision coming down to whichever top edge rusher remains or Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner.”
But would Ahmad Gardner or an Edge Rusher really be the top options with Neal and Ekwonu off the board?
Dan Duggan has shared that the Giants have “done a lot of work on Thibodeaux in the pre-draft process,” but he’s unlikely to be on the board. So who would the other options be?
On 4/11 Ralph Vacchiano states that he would be shocked, and “so would a lot of others” if the Giants were to pass on Charles Cross with Neal and Ekwonu off the board.
And Albert Breer, on 4/15, writes:
“when I tell you I’ve heard them connected to Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross, you might think that’d be a reach at No. 5. I’m here to tell you it wouldn’t be.”
Also on 4/15, Matt Miller chimes in, mentioning that the Giants have “shown a ton of interest” in Cross.
So the question now becomes: If given the choice between the top 3 tackles, which one would the giants take?
In his latest mock, Peter Schrager has the Giants taking Cross over Evan Neal, and today, Art Stapleton tweeted:
“I don’t know what the Giants would do if they have to choose between Ekwonu, Neal, and Cross at No. 5 if all were available. But I would not be stunned, as @PSchrags has it in his latest mock, if Giants go Cross over Neal.
Despite all this, most evaluators seem to grate Ekwonu as the top OT in this class, and if he’s available, I think the Giants would take him.
PICK 6: CAROLINA PANTHERS
Charles Cross
Jermaine Johnson
Malik Willis
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Kenny Pickett
The Evidence:
Carolina’s pick is quite possibly the most controversial selection in the first round.
Will they go QB?
It sure looked that way early on:
As early as 2/5 ProFootballTalk reported that Kenny Pickett talked to the Panthers at the Senior Bowl and has a great relationship with Coach Matt Rhule.
On 2/9, Jason La Canfora wrote:
"I don't think he [Pickett] makes it past the Panthers," said one evaluator who has done extensive work on Pickett. "Their owner (David Tepper) is a huge Pitt booster. He hasn't invested draft capital in a quarterback yet. He has to know the Steelers like him (Tepper is a former minority investor in the Steelers). I think that's a fit."
While the QB conversation remained very much alive, in early April, we started hearing that a QB selection at 6 was not set in stone, and Carolina, in fact, would be considering other positions.
On 4/4, PFN reported, “sources close to the Panthers tell PFN that right now, it comes down to a pair of players for Carolina — Charles Cross or Ikem Ekwonu.”
And I found this 4/11 tweet from Josh Norris compelling:
“Let’s read the tea leaves:
Scott Fitterer traded back 4x in 2021, his first draft as a GM
Panthers do not own a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft
The Panthers are the only QB needy team with enough cap space for BM/JG
You think they are staying at 6 for a QB?”
And then we started to hear that while the Panthers were likely to go QB, it wasn’t necessarily going to end up being Kenny Pickett.
On 4/11 on GMFB, Peter Schrager said, “Amidst all the Pickett-to-Panthers talk, I believe Matt Corral is a real possibility at 6 to Carolina, too.”
Here’s Albert Breer’s intel as of 4/15:
“In the end, other teams are convinced they’ll swallow hard and take a quarterback. I personally believe that they’d probably most like to trade down
The interesting thing is the one name they’ve been linked to most publicly, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, is one I haven’t heard quite as much for them of late …
… I’ve heard Liberty’s Malik Willis and Ole Miss’s Matt Corral, and even Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, tied to the Panthers more in recent days.”
On 4/15, Jason La Canfora reported that a source told him, “If Willis or (Pitt QB Kenny) Pickett are there, I don't believe they can pass on them. I'm pretty convinced of it.”
La Canfora adds:
“The consensus of the people in this league I know well, who know this franchise well, is that they will take Willis if both QBs are there, and they'll take Pickett if Willis is gone.”
But many remain skeptical that in a last-chance type year for Matt Rhule, he would tie himself to a mediocre QB prospect.
On 4/15, Jon Alexander, on The Roar Podcast, said, “I think one of the Panthers QB’s, when it’s all said and done, is going to either be Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield,” and followed that up with “I will be shocked if the Panthers take Kenny Pickett at 6.”
Per Ian Rapoport, on 4/18, the Panthers hosted Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross.
It’s looking more and more likely that Carolina might end up with Garoppolo or Mayfield, both of whom would provide them with a more competitive option in the short term than any first round prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft.
That likely leaves them with one of the top OTs, which are likely to be some of the best prospects left on the board, and would fill an area of need.
PICK 7: NEW YORK GIANTS
Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner
Jermaine Johnson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Charles Cross
Kyle Hamilton
The Evidence:
We’ve already concluded that an OT is likely for the Giants at pick 5.
So what about their next selection?
Many believe they will go defense if they are able to land a tackle they like in round 1. The first we heard of this was from Tony Pauline, who mentioned in late March that pick 7 to the Giants was the likely floor for Kayvon Thibodeaux.
It seems extremely unlikely at this point that Thibodeaux will be on the board even at pick 5, much less pick 7.
So where would the Giants pivot?
Let’s revisit the quote from Dan Duggan on 4/13:
“If Ekwonu or Neal are available at No. 5, the Giants would likely turn their card in for either without hesitation. If Ekwonu goes to Houston, then the Giants would gladly take Neal. Things would get really interesting if both of those tackles were off the board. The Giants likely would then pivot to defense, with the decision coming down to whichever top edge rusher remains or Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner.”
And the Sauce Gardner talk has been heating up.
On 4/14, Connor Hughes wrote, “The Giants are apparently quite fond of [Sauce Gardner] and select fifth and seventh.”
There has also been chatter that the Giants are looking to trade down, but if they aren’t able to pull that off, they will gladly take the top CB on the board as a solution to the James Bradberry uncertainty.
PICK 8: ATLANTA FALCONS
Jermaine Johnson
Garrett Wilson
Jameson Williams
Drake London
Jordan Davis
The Evidence:
The Atlanta pick is starting to feel like another major pivot point in this draft.
They have tons of roster holes and have therefore been tied to just about every position.
On 4/5, @FalcoholicKevin writes:
“I know this is gonna make #Falcons fans mad, but you should mentally prepare yourself for Desmond Ridder at 8. I don’t know that it’s *likely*, but it’s definitely *possible*. With the #Saint now positioned for a trade-up, it’s seeming like Malik Willis isn’t going to be there.”
And Cam Marino chimes in:
“Maybe the Falcons at 8 is more possible than folks think [for Ridder]. Remember—I was told they were very high on him months ago. That has been persistent.”
But the Desmond Ridder talk seems to have died off and given way to a great deal of speculation on receivers:
On 4/6, on Draft Insiders, Tony Pauline mentioned the Falcons’ plans were subject to change but they were focusing mostly on receivers.
That same day, Cam Marino wrote:
“Add @AaronWilson_NFL to the list of analysts who are mocking #OhioState WR Garrett Wilson to the #Falcons at pick 8. Certainly a theme among the large contingency of NFL draft media.”
On 4/13, uSTADIUM wrote that Jameson Williams could be the first WR taken and the #Falcons might be the team.
But lately, buzz has been picking up that the Falcons are looking at other positions.
Cam Marino has linked Atlanta to multiple players, ranging from Devin Lloyd (why I would have put on this list at #6), to Kayvon Thibodeaux (who I don’t expect to be available).
And on 4/13, Jeff Schultz had an interesting nugget on Jordan Davis:
“Former Georgia DT Jordan Davis, who’s attending the Braves’ game, on whether he has spoken with the Falcons in pre-draft meetings: “I can’t give out all the secrets but we talked a couple of times. I’d love to stay home. I have a preference but you cant make everything happen”
Earlier this month, Ben Standig, who is very plugged in, mocked Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Falcons. As I mentioned above, I don’t think he will be available, but does that give us a hint on which other players may be in play?
On 4/16, Cam Marino wrote:
“Source says the Falcons are one of the teams in the top 10 that have a ‘premier’ grade on Jermaine Johnson. I expect ATL to have an immoderate interest for him at pick eight.”
Peter Schrager adds to the validity of Jermaine Johnson to the Falcons by stating, “Atlanta viewed as a true ‘Best Player Available’ situation at 8. Could be looking at any of the WRs, any of the QBs, and the third OT or DE.”
Per Lance Zierlein, they are also trying to shop pick 8, but if they aren’t able to, the breadcrumbs are pointing toward Atlanta drafting the best available player.
The question becomes: Will they opt to start the run on receivers, or will they prefer a potential impact player like Jermaine Johnson?